Posted on 10/02/2004 9:37:06 PM PDT by conservativecorner
So, Yahoo! News now has an article titled "Bush Raps Kerry, Slips in Polls." It's based on a recent survey by Newsweek. Unfortunately, this story is a perfect example of why you should treat all media reporting on polls with skepticism. As Powerline notes:
"Newsweek's most recent poll included 345 Republicans, 364 Democrats and 278 independents. This compares to Newsweek's published data for their most recent prior poll, which showed President Bush with a comfortable lead: 391 Republicans, 300 Democrats and 270 independents. Yes, if you drop 46 Republicans and add 64 Democrats, you will get considerably better results for the Democratic nominee." (Hat Tip: The Pink Flamingo Bar & Grill)
The stuff above is called "screening" or weighting" the sample, and it's just one example of polling methodologies you ought to be wary of. Jay Caruso has more on this particular poll.
Other current polls don't seem to square with Newsweek's latest, just as other polls didn't square with Gallup's accounts of a 13% Bush lead a couple weeks ago. Usually, this is just sloppiness rather than bias - but these sorts of gambits can and will be used deliberately by either side.
If polls matter to you, therefore, get used to asking for internals, questioning the questions, and comparing different polls. Caveat elector.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&e=2&u=/ap/20041003/ap_on_el_pr/bush
http://www.papadoc.net/PinkFlamingoBar.html
http://jaycost.blogspot.com/2004/10/problems-with-102-newsweek-poll.html
http://smythesworld.blogspot.com/2004/09/another-wacky-poll-from-gallup-this.html
What do you expect? It's Newsweak. Have you ever read their editorials. They were more sympathertic to Sadaam Hussein's sons than they were to the SBVT. All MSM is garbage. Every single poll they take is rigged. Last time I checked the popular vote is meaningless. Kerry will lose because he will lose Maryland,Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Missouri. Newsweek conducted their poll at Martha's Vineyard.
Ask Jesse Ventura what polls mean. I live in Maryland and the polls were showing Kerry with a ten point lead as late as a month ago. This number is ridiculous. MD is a historically Democratic state, but most of the Democrats I know are voting for Bush, Nader, or nobody. I am an Independent and support Bush all the way, which I did not do in 2000. The Republicans I know who don't support Bush will either grudgingly vote for Bush, or stay home on election day. Kerry voters are hard to find once you look past the diehard liberals, who shouldn't be taken seriously. Liberals are always the most outspoken, in-your-face, and obnoxious people on the political spectrum. even the obnoxious people on the Right are less vocal about telling you that they think they are better than you. The media depends on the polls for their stories. It was so predictable that the MSM would say Kerry won the debate, and then use some fabricated poll to prove so. I am yet to meet one person who has ever been polled in an election. This is just an attempt to discourage Bush supporters, and to influence the weak-minded sheep who long to be part of the winning group. These idiots don't even vote.
Here's a rule of thumb I use for the polls. If the poll is by a liberal leaning medium (such as Newsweek, NBC, cBS or the like) I add 3 - 4 points to Bush.
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