Posted on 09/08/2004 2:34:59 PM PDT by Yashcheritsiy
The state numbers from various polling groups continue to trickle in, and will probably due so for the next week or so. State polls usually lag behind national polling by a few days. Anywise, the new data looks to be generally positive for President Bush. The Zogby data I'm considering as an outlier (as usual), which I'll touch on below.
Anywise, let's begin....
(Excerpt) Read more at thesealclub.blogspot.com ...
YYYYYYYeeeeesssssss!!!!!!
Thats Really Good, Really Good. Why is Zogby So Off, if this is so true?
Can't get the link to work. Could you please post some of the relevant results.
Thanks,
ScaniaBoy
The Zogby polls he's referring to were the slew of online "interactive" polls Zogby released yesterday. They don't mean anything -- even Zogby doesn't suggest that they're scientifically accurate.
I don't know for sure what is up with Zogby, but he's been consistently way out for months now. A lot of folks have noticed that he's becoming an outlier. I've heard all kinds of theories: He's Arab, so he's letting his feelings on the war on terrorists bias him, his brother is a Dem strategist this election so this biases him - who knows. I've noticed that he USUALLY (though not always) seems to trend outlying to the left, such as when every other national poll had Bush up by 7-11% after the convention, and he had Bush up by 2%.
Who knows, maybe he just needs to hire better statisticians?
Kerry will soon start to focus on Washington, D.C. as a "key" battleground in hopes that he will not lose bigger than Carter or Mondale or Dukakis.
The state numbers from various polling groups continue to trickle in, and will probably due so for the next week or so. State polls usually lag behind national polling by a few days. Anywise, the new data looks to be generally positive for President Bush. The Zogby data I'm considering as an outlier (as usual), which I'll touch on below.Anywise, let's begin....
Oregon - The convention bounce seems to be working for Bush here. Through most of July and August, Kerry had a fairly comfortable lead, ~48%-42%. The latest poll in Oregon by Riley Research shows Bush up by 1 point, 46-45%. Plus, the number of undecided went from 4% seen in previous polls to 8% in the Riley poll. The poll was conducted among likely, not registered, voters, which is generally a more accurate way of polling. This most likely suggests a combination of previously undecided people moving from that column to Bush, and previously Kerry supporters moving into the undecided column. Oregon has 7 EV, and if Bush could take it (he almost did in 2000, he lost by a margin of slightly less than 7,000 votes (0.44%) in 2000), this would provide some comfortable padding in his column.
Missouri - I forgot to mention Missouri last time, but as I said, let's continue to keep an eye on this state. The convention seems to be bouncing in Missouri as well, according to the Rasmussen poll released Sept. 3, Bush is now up by 6 points, 48%-42%. Polling throughout July and August showed anywhere from Kerry up by 1% (Survey USA, 8-17) to Bush up by 2% (LA Times, 8-24). Bush seems to have widened his lead in my home state, though let's not get too cocky - the MoE for this poll is 5%. Missouri needs to be a keeper for Bush, as a bellweather state which has voted with the winner in every election since 1960. The 11 EV Missouri brings have to stay in the Bush column this time around.
Arizona - Though it has been considered a battleground state by some commentators, Arizona is firmly in Bush's camp, along with its 10 EV. This is made clear by the poll from the Arizona Republic which puts Bush up 16 point, 54%-38%. This reflects a convention bounce as well, though primarily from undecided voters who appear to have broken for Bush. Throughout August, Bush steadily advanced on Kerry, going from a 48%-45% lead on August 1 (Arizona Republic) to a 47%-39% lead on August 22 (Arizona State University). In the ASU poll, 14% were undecided. In this latest, only 7%. Kerry's numbers did not change appreciably between the two, Bush just went up by 7 points after the convention. Arizona should probably be chocked up as a lost cause for the Kerry campaign.
I want to make a short comment about the numbers coming out of Zogby's spate of polls today. Zogby is notably an outlier in nearly every polling period this year. This current round is no exception, and his polls seem to be bucking the trend in many places (which, in polling, should set off warning bells). For instance, In Oregon, Zogby's latest has Kerry up by 10%, even though every other indicator suggests the opposite. Another example, in New Mexico, Zogby has Kerry up by 10% as well, which is way off of the rest of the polling data out there. Also, Zogby has some numbers which seem to be wildly skewed in Bush's direction, such as in Ohio, where he has Bush up by 11%, which though Bush has been leading in the state for several weeks now, is way outlying from what the other polls show.
I'm tending to not trust Zogby's numbers this time around. In general, the main polling groups I look at are Survey USA, Rasmussen, Strategic Vision (though it is Republican, it seems to provide accurate polling when compared to other, non-partisan, groups), and the CNN/USA Today/Gallup conglomerate. Also, I'll factor in local polling groups such as Riley Research and the Arizona Republic when they present data.
Zogby's polls aren't randomly selected scientific polls. They're email polls of self-selected participants.
Those were the online interactive results? I got the Zogby information from http://www.electoral-vote.com who reports them, but doesn't mention they were the interactive results. No wonder they were so off.
BUT, I still don't generally tend to trust Zogby's numbers, since they've still be proving to be outliers this entire election cycle.
This IS good news but what about the other so called "battleground states", like Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Penn? What about Florida?
Thanks a lot.
Looking good.
According to Gallup Bush is moving up in Ohio as well.
I just got off the phone with a pollster not five minutes ago.
I told her I would crawl through 5 miles of broken glass to vote for Bush over Kerry,
Well, we'll have to wait and see what the new state polling data (after convention) says on these. Hopefully they'll be out soon, I'm certainly waiting for them!
Up till now, Minnesota has been a slight Kerry lead, but is slowly moving towards Bush. Wisconsin seems to be ever so slightly Bush, as does Florida. Iowa has consistently had Kerry ahead by 5-7 points, so I think it's a no-go for Bush. Pennsylvania seems like it could go either way. All this is based on pre-convention polling up to like August 28 or so.
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