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Taxing Sales under the FairTax – What Rate Works?
Boston University ^ | September 2006 | Laurence J. Kotlikoff et al

Posted on 10/19/2006 5:11:50 PM PDT by pigdog

As specified in Congressional bill H.R. 25/S. 25, the FairTax is a proposal to replace the federal personal income tax, corporate income tax, payroll (FICA) tax, capital gains, alternative minimum, self-employment, and estate and gifts taxes with a single-rate federal retail sales tax. The FairTax also provides a prebate to each household based on its demographic composition. The prebate is set to ensure that households pay no taxes net on spending up to the poverty level.

Bill Gale (2005) and the President’s Advisory Panel on Federal Tax Reform (2005) suggest that the effective (tax inclusive) tax rate needed to implement H.R. 25 is far higher than the proposed 23% rate. This study, which builds on Gale’s (2005) analysis, shows that a 23% rate is eminently feasible and suggests why Gale and the Tax Panel reached the opposite conclusion.

This paper begins by projecting the FairTax’s 2007 tax base net of its rebate. Next it calculates the tax rate needed to maintain the real levels of federal and state spending under the FairTax. It then determines if an effective rate of 23% would be sufficient to fund 2007 estimated spending or if not, the amount by which non-Social Security federal expenditures would need to be reduced. Finally, it shows that the FairTax imposes no additional real fiscal burdens on state and local government, notwithstanding the requirement that such governments pay the FairTax when they purchase goods and services.

(Excerpt) Read more at people.bu.edu ...


TOPICS: Heated Discussion
KEYWORDS: fairtax; incometax; itchyandscratchy; taxes; taxreform
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To: pigdog

Where you slip your tongue is not any concern of mine.


321 posted on 10/21/2006 10:45:49 AM PDT by xcamel (Press to Test, Release to Detonate)
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To: Principled

As soon as you admit the FT is just one giant red herring.


322 posted on 10/21/2006 10:46:47 AM PDT by xcamel (Press to Test, Release to Detonate)
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To: phoenix0468
A good post and has many fine points. In fact I'm sure that a decent dynamic analysis will show considerably more tax revenue if a rate of 23% remains.

And you're correct about the revenue shifting, too, I think. The fly in the ointment is geting the Feds to do it, but with a new, decent tax system - who knows. Perhaps they'll begin to look at reason (finally).

I sure hope so.

323 posted on 10/21/2006 10:48:13 AM PDT by pigdog
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To: pigdog

I have better things to do than to spend my entire weekend writing an economic paper detailing how the Fair Tax is a house of cards built on a shaky foundation of assumptions. I actually find whole premise interresting and possibly cause of further research. I just find fault in it being implemented.

Keep in mind however that it would cause a massive restructering of the economy to pull off, and any restructering of an economy (one that is working should I add) can cause huge displacements.


324 posted on 10/21/2006 10:54:08 AM PDT by Brellium ("Thou shalt not shilly shally!" Aron Nimzowitsch)
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To: Brellium; pigdog
Many of these “well-respected economists” fail to take into account even basic economics into the application of the ‘Fair Tax’.

But you do. Let's see.

First thing, the assumption that prices would decline if the Fair Tax is to be implemented is just that, an assumption.

Okay, fine. Prices don't fall. So what? You are taking home 100% of your income. It still takes 25% of your income to pay taxes. What's the difference? At least you can save a portion of it before it is stolen from you.

Now you make 100 dollars, you keep 75 after taxes.

Under a NRST you make 100 dollars you spend 100 dollars but only get the equivalent of 75 dollars worth of pre NRST goods. So what?

Basic economic theory states that business will charge a price for a service (or product) at a rate which the market will support.

You have never studied that of which you speak. The FT org has never claimed what you state. It has always been put forth that competition would cause prices to fall.

All of this is in addition to any of the other difficulties such a system would face as has already been previously mentioned; such as avoidance of taxation through a black market

It has yet to be demonstrated on these threads how a black market in Big Macs, toothpaste, milk and dental fillings will occur.

why buy a house when you can rent and pay the same taxes?

The appreciation of the value of rental units doesn't accrue to the lessee.

325 posted on 10/21/2006 10:54:49 AM PDT by groanup (Limited government is the answer. What's the question?)
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To: pigdog
"Obviously you don't; here's what the paper clerifies for you:


"3.3 Tax-Inclusive versus Tax-Exclusive Rates"

Dear Pigheaded,

I have read the plan(as have many others), I know how the rates are figured.

I also know that it is basically a Federal sales tax to replace income tax (and other taxes).

Yet the information presented to the public is distorted in a way to mislead the average person that is used to figuring the normal sales tax in most states.

You assume that everyone that points out flaws in the plan is stupid and don't understand it.

Until you can admit that the plan may be flawed and needs to go back to the drawing board, it wont pass and will continue to be little more than "Spam" here that wastes bandwidth.

Why don't you start a thread asking for opinion on flaws in the plan and advice on making it better?

That would at least be constructive.
326 posted on 10/21/2006 11:05:07 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Demonrats want the Gays out of Congress.....stand back and let them purge their base.)
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To: Beagle8U
Yet the information presented to the public is distorted in a way to mislead the average person that is used to figuring the normal sales tax in most states.

Please demonstrate.

327 posted on 10/21/2006 11:07:33 AM PDT by groanup (Limited government is the answer. What's the question?)
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To: groanup
"Please demonstrate"

A $1 item plus 5% sales tax= $1.05. Correct?

A $1 item under the (as advertised) 23% Fairy tax = ???

It sure as hell isn't the $1.23 most would think it was the way the plan is being advertised.

More like $1.30 depending how you round up/down.
328 posted on 10/21/2006 11:21:02 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Demonrats want the Gays out of Congress.....stand back and let them purge their base.)
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To: Beagle8U
But if you believe their horse-hockey, your $1.30 would auto-magically be $0.97 - to argue/debate/discuss/ponder this with them is pointless.
329 posted on 10/21/2006 11:25:19 AM PDT by xcamel (Press to Test, Release to Detonate)
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To: Beagle8U

But if you only bothered to read the FairTax website you would see that the question is answered in its entirety. Your accusations of being mislead are false. It is readily addressed.

http://www.fairtax.org/fairtax/faqanswers.htm#47


330 posted on 10/21/2006 11:27:35 AM PDT by groanup (Limited government is the answer. What's the question?)
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To: groanup
All of these plans would lose their future tax liability.

Not true - these assets would be taxed at the Fair Tax rate when consumed by the retirees, a rate that would probably be more than the retirement income tax rate.

331 posted on 10/21/2006 11:33:43 AM PDT by GregoryFul (There's no truth in the New York Times)
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To: GregoryFul

Your premise was the plan is a scheme to tax retirement assets. Waving all future liability on tax deferred assets is not a very good way to tap into retirment assets, is it?


332 posted on 10/21/2006 11:42:07 AM PDT by groanup (Limited government is the answer. What's the question?)
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To: xcamel
The name of the plan should be changed to "Fairy Tax" the "Tax Reclusive" plan.
333 posted on 10/21/2006 11:42:37 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Demonrats want the Gays out of Congress.....stand back and let them purge their base.)
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To: Beagle8U

or "Scare Tax" as economic destruction would be sure to follow.


334 posted on 10/21/2006 11:50:45 AM PDT by xcamel (Press to Test, Release to Detonate)
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To: groanup
"Yet the information presented to the public is distorted in a way to mislead the average person that is used to figuring the normal sales tax in most states."

If you only bothered to read that, until you understand it, you would know why people keep telling you the same thing.
335 posted on 10/21/2006 11:54:54 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Demonrats want the Gays out of Congress.....stand back and let them purge their base.)
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To: Beagle8U
I read it, responded to it and linked the explanation. What else would you have me do? Put it on a church sign?
336 posted on 10/21/2006 12:05:13 PM PDT by groanup (Limited government is the answer. What's the question?)
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To: groanup; xcamel
Forest Gump said life is like a box of chocolates...you never know what you'll get.

That is how Fairy tax is being sold. Its presented in a way that most wont know what they will get if they buy into it.

I prefer that Fairy tax is the dreaded "Green Jelly" in the box of chocolate....It can be masked and hidden, but when someone bites into it they will puke.
337 posted on 10/21/2006 12:22:28 PM PDT by Beagle8U (Demonrats want the Gays out of Congress.....stand back and let them purge their base.)
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To: pigdog
Let's assume your and your wife have an $800,000 savings account and that when you go on S/S and retire you'll receive about $21,600 per year. If you invest your savings and earn 6.25% annually this would give you an annual income of $50,000 plus the S/S or $71,600 - none of which income is taxed.

Let's assume the current income tax scheme. I take the $800,000 in savings and buy tax free municipal bond fund (APX currently paying 5.7%), I get $45,600 tax free, plus the $21,600 S/S I'd have to pay tax on at 28% rate or $6048, for an effective tax rate of 9%, considerably better than the effective FairTax of 14.6% you calculate.

But I want to buy a boat, now that I'm retired, and have a nice nest egg, and time to enjoy myself. I take $200,000 of savings and buy a nice new cruiser - and will not have to pay the $60,000 or so FairTax on this purchase.

Your list of untaxed expenditures is very strange. It would be quite revolting were the government to start taxing loan repayments, or money put into savings.

Also keep in mind that under the income tax you will be paying an additional tax amount in the form of higher prices - an amount that FairTax opponents have stipulated as 9% - on everything that you buy (even the S/S funds) - whicvh would make your income tax effective rate 24.88%.

The supposed higher price built into things due to income taxes is a debatable point. If industry still pays its workers their current pre-tax pay, rather than their current take home pay, there may not be any significant reduction in pre-FairTax price of products. To be fair, industry ought to raise workers pay by the payroll taxes the businesses would be relieved of having to pay, since the workers will now be paying that tax. Doubt that will happen though.

338 posted on 10/21/2006 12:29:53 PM PDT by GregoryFul (There's no truth in the New York Times)
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To: groanup

Nobody sane would post such BS in front of a church


339 posted on 10/21/2006 12:36:24 PM PDT by xcamel (Press to Test, Release to Detonate)
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To: pigdog

My take? Absolutely no more than 10%. And make it a Constitutional law that Congress cannot borrow money unless there is a declaration of war.


340 posted on 10/21/2006 1:15:46 PM PDT by DennisR (Look around - God is giving you countless observable clues of His existence!)
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