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The professor, in an earlier forecast, had predicted that Donald Trump will be the winner but he admits now that this election is testing his module. America is at the crossroads of an acrimonious election as the two candidates #Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton battle each other. As per the latest reports and Gallup polls, Hillary is set to win. She appears to be heading for victory, especially after beating Trump in all 3 debates. In such circumstances, the prediction of Professor Allan Lichtman that Donald Trump will be the winner has now to be taken with a pinch of...

2:41 video Good morning, I’m still reporting on Las Vegas Oddsmaker Says Donald Trump Will Win A lot of you have asked why I’ve not covered the polls for several days. Well, the MSM polls have all fallen into line. Even the UPI State Poll is either right and Clinton is the sure victor, or they too have fallen in the grip of the Clintonistas. I’ll try to do a poll report very early tomorrow morning. But if it’s not up 7 am Pacific, then it won’t come out until noon PST. However, a California reporter friend of mine just...

They say that most polls are done by left leaning groups/organizations.So does this mean that polls by CNN,ABC,NBC & New York Times are included? What about Monmouth? Who is running Monmouth?. It's just peculiar that the polls done by Democrats have Hillary up about 11 points when the more credible pollsters are showing a tie or a two point race. Guess we can agree that something just doesn't add up,and Trump should be ahead by at least six or seven points.

Republican presidential nominee is continuing to narrow Hillary Clinton's lead on him, also topping several national polls, a turnaround from the Democrat's previous lead. In a four-way poll by IBD/TIPP Tracking including Gary Johnson and Jill Stein released on 21 October, Trump is leading Clinton with 41 points to her 40, while the same poll by Rasmussen Reports has Trump leading Clinton by two points, Real Clear Politics reported. A head-to-head race by LA Times/USC Tracking has Trump leading by one point on 45 to Clinton's 44 points, although a two-way poll by IBD/TIPP Tracking has Clinton ahead by two...

As a tumultuous campaign nears an end, undecided voters across the country watched the final debate of the U.S. presidential race with a mix of skepticism and rapt attention Wednesday night. They were searching for clarity, and some found it. But others remained painfully undecided just a few weeks before the election, saying neither candidate won them over. Read below what undecided voters had to say after the final presidential debate and take our poll here and tell us: Who will (or should) win the presidential election 2016? Who will win the Presidential Election? Hillary Clinton Donald Trump “I heard...

Hillary Clinton, the Democratic presidential nominee, has launched a historic bid to win the deeply Republican state of Texas in a bid to destroy Donald Trump's chances of becoming president. Mrs Clinton committed $1.5 million to begin running television advertisements in the Lone Star state, which is usually ignored by Democratic presidential nominees who have not won it for 40 years. Texas has 38 votes in the presidential electoral college, the second biggest number of any state after California. A candidate needs 270 to win. Targeting Texas amounted to a political "decapitation strategy" by taking the biggest Republican state....

Link only due to copyright issues: http://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2016/oct/20/gov-hutchinson-says-trump-could-win-responds-candi/?f=news-arkansas

Whatever impact the third and final presidential debate of the 2016 election season may have still is to come, but the day after the event, Rasmussen had GOP candidate Donald Trump up by three points in its polling. “The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online White House Watch survey finds Trump with 43 percent support among Likely U.S. Voters to Clinton’s 40 percent,” the report said on Thursday. “Six percent still prefer Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, and three percent favor Green Party nominee Jill Stein. Another three percent like some other candidate, and six percent are undecided.” The same...

Over the last decade we’ve witnessed big data tackle issues such as crime, health care, climate change, and even how to select a movie. So, with the availability of ever-growing collections of political data, more sophisticated statistical analysis techniques, and the ubiquitous presence of social media, it is tempting to think that big data should be able to give us a completely accurate prediction of major votes likes Brexit or the American presidential election. After all, statistical error decreases with sample size, so with unbounded data at our fingertips, it’s easy to imagine that measurement error will also vanish. Indeed,...

Stony Brook, N.Y. — A SUNY professor continues to project Donald Trump as the likely winner of this year's election and he's critiquing polls that predict the opposite in a new opinion piece. Helmut Norpoth has been predicting a Trump victory since early this year. His model currently projects a win for the Republican with a certainty of 87 to 99 percent. Norpoth is a professor at Stony Brook University on Long Island. That flies in the face of just about every other major election forecast out there, which mostly give an edge to Democrat Hillary Clinton, notes the Daily...

Donald Trump thinks he’s going to win the White House, despite polls that show him badly trailing Hillary Clinton, his campaign CEO said in an interview published Wednesday. "Right now he really, really thinks he's going to win,” Trump campaign CEO Steve Bannon said in an interview with CNN. Bannon, the former executive chairman of Breitbart News, said media outlets are failing to see “the amount of anger that's out there.” National and battleground state polls show Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, is faltering. Clinton, the Democratic nominee, is leading Trump by 6.6 points in the RealClearPolitics average of polls....

While most national polls project Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton winning the presidential election in a landslide victory, one prominent survey shows Republican rival Donald Trump narrowly ahead.In light of multiple sexual assault allegations being leveled against the billionaire, Trump has suffered in national polling. The national average shows Clinton leading by seven points, and Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight puts her odds of winning at a staggering 87.6 percent. But the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times "Daybreak" poll paints a different outcome. Tracking the opinions of roughly 3,000 eligible voters, the results are updated each day. As of Tuesday, the poll gives Trump...

*Most election polls are loss leaders, designed for marketing. *Brand recognition is often the main goal, not accuracy. *The real money is giving advice to campaigns. Every day in this election cycle it seems like there are new polls about the presidential race, and it seems like somebody must be making a lot of money from all that data collection. But here's the thing: Most of these polls were never meant to make money. They are just marketing and brand placement to help sell something else. Even the biggest firms, like Gallup, give away political polls to promote the commercial...

As we rush towards the finish line in the 2016 presidential horse race, there’s little doubt the polls have been unkind to Donald Trump of late. As of Sunday the Real Clear Politics average showed Hillary Clinton with a five and half point lead. Despite the size and permanence of Clinton’s surpluses across the various polls, one survey has consistently bucked the trend throughout the entire race. The LA Times/USC poll currently puts Trump ahead by one point Trump Wikileaks coveragebut has stubbornly maintained that the Republican nominee was leading by bigger margins over the course of months. Needless to...

You Americans should learn the lesson of the Brexit shocker, and the stunning success of right-wing populists in Austria and France. LONDON—Don’t underestimate the power of nativist populism. That’s the harsh lesson we in Britain learned less than four months ago, when Brexit blew up in our faces and confounded nearly every prediction. It’s one the Austrians and French are learning even now, as they keep counting out (then are forced to count back in) right-wing populist backlashes to the establishment. And it’s the lesson that American pundits who are already predicting a comfortable victory for Hillary Clinton over the...

Democrat Hillary Clinton moved into the lead in three key swing states and is now tied 45-45 with Republican Donald Trump in Ohio, according to a new independent poll of likely voters from Quinnipiac University. A separate poll of likely voters released Monday by CNN shows Trump holding a 4-point lead over Clinton in Ohio, 48-44, which is just outside the margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The CNN poll of likely voters shows 4 percent backing Libertarian Gary Johnson and 2 percent voting for Green Party candidate Jill Stein. The CNN poll shows voters see...

Donald Trump’s allies tried their best Sunday to tamp down an eruption of stories accusing the Republican presidential nominee of untoward sexual advances against women, as national polls showed the billionaire businessman still within striking distance of Hillary Clinton after a horrendous week. His running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, said he “couldn’t be more proud” to stand shoulder to shoulder with Mr. Trump, despite the rising tally of women who have accused the presidential candidate of groping and other unwanted advances over the past few decades. “Donald Trump has made it clear that he categorically denies the allegations that...

The key to predicting who is going to win an election is understanding who will vote – and that spells trouble for pollsters. The best predictor of voting intention is to ask the respondents if they intend to vote. The problem, however, is that real turnout has been around 55 percent for the last 55 years, while, historically, over 70 percent of survey respondents routinely say they intended to vote. Yikes! So are 20 percent of respondents selected in random probability samples lying? Yes....

Republican vice presidential nominee Mike Pence on Sunday expressed renewed confidence in Donald Trump and their White House bid, amid a stream of allegations about Trump’s behavior toward women and a new poll that shows the race against Democratic rival Hillary Clinton is still very close. “This is a highly-contested election; all the way to the finish,” Pence told “Fox News Sunday.” “I couldn’t be more proud to stand with Donald Trump.” Pence spoke hours after the release of a Washington Post-ABC News poll that showed Clinton leading by 4 percentage points, 47-to-43 percent, with Election Day now just 23...

Donald Trump has lost little support since the first presidential debate, despite days of damaging news stories about his treatment of women, according to a new poll. Hillary Clinton leads Trump 47 percent to 43 percent among likely voters in a four-way race, according to the latest ABC News/Washington Post national poll. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson trails with 5 percent and the Green Party’s Jill Stein is at 2 percent. In the previous ABC/Post poll, taken before the Sept. 26 debate, Clinton led Trump 46 percent to 44 percent. The new poll continues to show some dire numbers for Trump,...