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Why Trump Could Still Pull Off a Surprise
Politico Magazine ^ | October 16, 2016 | Matthew Goodwin

Posted on 10/17/2016 8:44:03 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

You Americans should learn the lesson of the Brexit shocker, and the stunning success of right-wing populists in Austria and France.

LONDON—Don’t underestimate the power of nativist populism. That’s the harsh lesson we in Britain learned less than four months ago, when Brexit blew up in our faces and confounded nearly every prediction. It’s one the Austrians and French are learning even now, as they keep counting out (then are forced to count back in) right-wing populist backlashes to the establishment. And it’s the lesson that American pundits who are already predicting a comfortable victory for Hillary Clinton over the embattled Donald Trump—if not a historic landslide—should take on board before they start relaxing too much in the next few weeks.

Of course, every election, and country, is unique. And with little more than 20 days left until America elects its next president, there is reason for the new sense of confidence in the Clinton camp. In recent weeks, Trump has been engulfed by scandal, and Clinton’s position has strengthened considerably in the polls.

But recent elections outside the United States should check too much complacency in the Clinton camp, especially when the side that is perceived to be losing is preaching nativist populism to voters who have been economically left behind and feel culturally under threat from ethnic change....

(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...


TOPICS: Campaign News; Polls; State and Local
KEYWORDS: hillary; trump
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Comments?
1 posted on 10/17/2016 8:44:04 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

IMHO the election is very close if not tied. Lot’s of things can happen between now and November 8. Have the dimoKKKRATS shot their wad. Is there more coming down the pike against Hillary. WikiLeaks, O’Keefe and maybe Drudge.


2 posted on 10/17/2016 8:49:25 PM PDT by Parley Baer
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“Still?” From a rabid leftist website in cahoots with Hillary, this is telling. They are SCARED!


3 posted on 10/17/2016 8:50:30 PM PDT by Fungi (Beer, you like beer? Enjoy your beer and all the fungi that come with it,)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I’d like to think there will be another Brexit upset, but I also remember the disappointments of 2008 and 2012, when it turned out the pro-Democrat polls were right. Also, I just understand why it is Trump mired in scandal when Clinton seems pretty much head barely visible in the mudhole of emails, Clinton Foundation slush fund, Wikileaks-exposed corruption, etc.


4 posted on 10/17/2016 8:52:34 PM PDT by Unam Sanctam
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To: Unam Sanctam

“I just DON’T understand”


5 posted on 10/17/2016 8:53:26 PM PDT by Unam Sanctam
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

If by “surprise” they mean counter to the bogus media-drive polls, then yes, Trump will very easily outperform those polls.


6 posted on 10/17/2016 8:54:01 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

TRUMP IS GOING TO WIN.....we must believe....


7 posted on 10/17/2016 8:55:27 PM PDT by cherry
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Gee, you really can’t tell who this Politico writer is cheering for can you?

Look, the psyops are going full blast right now and IMHO, it’s too early to be playing that card but there’s a reason they are.

Everyone knows they are weighing Democrats at obscene levels to try and make it appear Hillary Clinton is winning. Everyone knows they are forcing down the scale and there’s not a chance in hell Clinton is generating more enthusiasm for Dems as in 2008 or even 2012 when it was declining as the “Hope and Change” brand was crashing.

All objective indicators point to a Brexit type outcome as the polling is admittedly confused in that industry.

Trump has to keep focused and put the foot on the pedal hard to the finish.
It’s going to be up to us the American people to take this into our hands as the Clinton campaign rolls out its GOTV efforts on Election Day. She can be beaten. No one likes her and most Democrats can’t talk about her without grimacing.


8 posted on 10/17/2016 8:57:09 PM PDT by romanesq (For George Soros so loved the world, he gave us Obama)
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To: All

There are two things that could put Clinton in the WH...

1. Media is in her pocket and Wikileaks and O’Keefe’s extremely damaging video will not be seen by the general public...

2. Massive voter fraud...

We can only hope Trump has this all covered....


9 posted on 10/17/2016 8:58:59 PM PDT by JBW1949 (I'm really PC....PATRIOTICALLY CORRECT!!!!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Had to look up “nativism”:

“Nativism is the political position of supporting a favored status for certain established inhabitants of a nation (i.e. self-identified citizens) as compared to claims of newcomers or immigrants”

So yeah, I think Trump running for President on the theme of supporting Americans just might work.


10 posted on 10/17/2016 9:01:01 PM PDT by bigbob (The Hillary indictment will have to come from us.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

‘Cause it ain’t over ‘till it’s over?


11 posted on 10/17/2016 9:04:30 PM PDT by Paladin2 (auto spelchk? BWAhaha2haaa.....I aint't likely fixin' nuttin'. Blame it on the Bossa Nova...)
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To: romanesq

Here’s what it really comes down to- Hillary is just rent-seeking hack who’s lived off the public payroll since she was 18 and Trump is a salesman and a closer. This next debate is going to be epic and it will seal the deal for Trump and afterwards everyone on the left is going to be going WTF?


12 posted on 10/17/2016 9:07:25 PM PDT by WMarshal (Trump 2016)
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To: bigbob
“Nativism is the political position of supporting a favored status for certain established inhabitants of a nation (i.e. self-identified citizens) as compared to claims of newcomers or immigrants”

Rubbish. I think the real definition is: "Nativism is a leftwing smear, like racism, misogyny, homophobia, etc., that is used to shame people into rejecting the concept of national sovereignty and thus discouraging them from opposing the establishment of a global government."

13 posted on 10/17/2016 9:08:17 PM PDT by Maceman (Screw the Party. Save the Country.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The polls will suddenly ‘tighten’ the week before the election when the Dems need to convince their voters that it’s not in the bag and to show up to vote.

The media totally sacrificed any semblance of credibility in order to push Crooked Sick Hillary over the finish line.

We will find out that the media pollsters did the same thing, the media polling was coordinated with the hits on Trump and the numbers massaged to try to provide momentum to Hillary and discourage Trump supporters at key points in the race.


14 posted on 10/17/2016 9:08:22 PM PDT by Meet the New Boss
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“Trump could still pull it off”

Like the Slimes and Compost, Politico is now also a humor ‘zine.
It’s fun watching them sweat.


15 posted on 10/17/2016 9:09:21 PM PDT by tumblindice (America's founding fathers, all armed conservatives)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

If Clinton had this election in the bag, the Commie media would move on to other issues and leave Trump alone, but all they do is trash him, because they know Clinton does NOT have the election in the bag, its either close or tied..and Brexit is proof that ANYTHING can happen..Brexit was down what, 10 points supposedly on election day and Brexit won, the polls were total BS


16 posted on 10/17/2016 9:10:48 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Trump will win and win big! It is going to be so much fun with all the schadenfreude from the MSM and the Dems on Election night.


17 posted on 10/17/2016 9:11:39 PM PDT by eekitsagreek
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To: Unam Sanctam

Because the media is 100 percent in the tank for her..96 percent of “Journalists” donate to the DNC and the Clinton campaign..just imagine, a week of non stop Clinton stories, Clinton Foundation, Wikileaks..the O Keefe video, Clinton would be down 20 points right now


18 posted on 10/17/2016 9:11:49 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: CatOwner
How do her numbers go up with each breaking scandal?

Poll: Clinton hits 50-percent support nationally, leading Trump by double digits https://t.co/8nATBOPvoi pic.twitter.com/z2TljnB1DF— The Hill (@thehill) October 18, 2016

This Monmouth weighted +4 Dem. FYI Turnout 2012= R: 25.9% D: 25.7 even w Obama on ballot. Important: All recent polls being weighted +D https://t.co/cZoCseTw3E— Tammy Bruce (@HeyTammyBruce) October 18, 2016


19 posted on 10/17/2016 9:13:21 PM PDT by Kenny
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To: WMarshal

“Trump is a salesman and a closer.”

No doubt but the close is really important in round 3. Anticipate Trump will be ready and loaded for bear and Hillary.

He’s going in fully armed to the gills. He has a whole nuclear arsenal.
IMHO, she does not handle problems well and won’t handle all shots he’ll be prepared to fire off. As seen in the last debate, she’s often left speechless when she gets hammered and has no canned answer prepared.

If she keeled over at the debate, I admit I would be laughing.


20 posted on 10/17/2016 9:18:05 PM PDT by romanesq (For George Soros so loved the world, he gave us Obama)
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