Free Republic

“The vaccine injury play is a winning card because vaccine injury is a valid issue. However, it will be used to attack Trump by branding him as responsible for a dangerous vaccine rollout.”

It will most certainly be used against Trump if not by DeSantis, by the Dems in 2024 when the widespread deaths from these poison shots become impossible to ignore.

Whether it will be used successfully against Trump depends on how Trump positions himself going forward. Last I saw, he was still talking like a Pfizer salesman and bragging about how his “Warp Speed” vaccines “saved millions of lives”. If he continues in this direction, he makes himself very vulnerable on this issue.

On the other hand, we all know that Trump is as good as anybody at gaslighting and acting as if he was always on the right side of an issue. He needs to do that with the vaccines ASAP. Regardless of motivation, if the move by RDS forces Trump’s hand and gets him on the right side of this, that will be good for all of us.

If “she can’t win” is their only argument, you know they have no real argument at all. That argument is weak no matter what the political conditions, but especially so with the winds blowing very favorably in our direction.

“Mr. Predident, with all due respect a number of Health Nazi governors are engaging in far left fascism on your watch at this very moment. Please do something about it.”

Yes, absolutely! The speech last night is a great start, but what is really needed is an aggressive and unapologetic reopen campaign coming straight from the WH.

“I believe it was his finest hour—Best speech he has given—and he has give many. Let this be the real start of the campaign.”

I think the tone he struck last night was spot on, and this should be the model for every campaign rally going forward. It was a “morning in America” speech that was unifying, stood firm on freedom, and refused to bow the knee to the woke mob.

I’m willing to go with this narrative if we declare victory NOW and reopen the country.

“It’s literally like living in a foreign culture. Everyone running around so full of fear, I don’t know how to act around them.”

Yes, that’s exactly how I feel going to the store these days.

“It’s a revelation how many people are willing to sacrifice their freedom for safety.”

It is, sadly. And it’s amazing how many of the same people that said a few years ago, “to hell if they’re gonna take my guns” have gladly surrendered their constitutional rights over a bad flu.

“I’ve come across some businesses that do charge extra if you pay with a card. For example, some gas stations charge more $$ per gallon if you pay with a card. A few small businesses do it, too. And, yes, as a customer, I do view it more as a discount for paying in cash than as a penalty for paying with a card.”

Yeah cash discounting is starting to gain traction, but as of now, less than 5% of small businesses are doing it. I think you’ll see it more and more in the next few years. Of course, Visa/MC don’t like it, and they are trying to put up hurdles for companies like ours who offer it. But at the end of the day, the law is on our side - for now anyway.

“Yeah, some places won’t accept CC’s or checks. But cash is accepted everywhere (in person), as far as I know.”

Actually, there is a movement among merchants toward accepting only electronic payments, but it is driven mostly by Visa/MC handing out big incentives for them to make this move. At the same time, though, Visa/MC have been raising interchange rates to cover all the rewards programs on their credit cards.

I actually sell merchant services, but I’m focused on trying to buck the cashless trend by setting up merchants on a cash discount program. It is now legal for merchants to offer this program, which basically incentivizes customers to pay cash by charging a 3.99% service fee on all credit card purchases.

Merchants that adopt this program love it, because they often save hundreds or even thousands of dollars a month. Their only concern is if they will scare their customers away, but once they find out it doesn’t, they never go back to paying those ridiculous interchange fees.

In over 99% of cases, the service fee is a non-issue for customers - the psychology of a “cash discount” works very well, since people are always looking for an incentive to save money.

“Basically, whatever the outcome, Trump sucks. Does that about cover it?”

Yeah that pretty much sums it up.

I didn’t watch them at all last night - stayed on OANN all night. I’m done with Fox too except for the prime time shows.

“Ras has R+1, CNN D+13......

Someone is lying”

Of course we should trust CNN because their coverage has been so fair to the President and they would never do anything to try to deceive and depress his voters.

I think Fox is in danger of losing a large part of their audience if they keep doing crap like this. I’ve been watching OANN a lot lately - they carry all the Trump rallies in full. After this, I’ve decided I am watching OANN exclusively on election night. Fox no longer deserves my attention.

“Really? After there have been hundreds, if not thousands of stories and words written about the races, you don’t understand the difference between the US Senate races and the House and why the dynamics are different? Really? Really?

I recommend doing a little bit of research to educate yourself. This isn’t hard. Really?”

Yeah so I get the fundamentals that we have 10 Dem senators running for reelection in red states and we have 45 or whatever GOP retirements and some unfavorable court decisions regarding redistricting working against us in the House. What I don’t get is how we could make SIGNIFICANT gains in the Senate and in the same year lose the House. And by significant, I mean picking up 3-5 Senate seats.

Before Kavanaugh, the polling had us gaining just 1 in North Dakota, and even that one was not a sure thing. At that time, there was also a risk of losing TN, NV and AZ Senate races, thus giving the Dems an outside shot at taking over the chamber. And back then, they were talking a 35-40 seat pickup for the Dems in the House.

Now North Dakota has become a foregone conclusion for the GOP, TN and NV are looking very solid, and AZ is looking good. On top of that, we have strong pickup opportunities in IN, MO, and perhaps MT. We also have decent pickup opportunities in FL, WV, and some possible surprises in NJ, MI, and MN.

My point was that, given that there appears to have been a fundamental shift in Senate races post-Kavanaugh, I have a hard time believing that there hasn’t been a similar shift in House races. I just think that the House districts are far more difficult to poll accurately, so it is not as easy to see the trend there. And in some cases, analysts don’t want to see it because they want to cling to their fantasy that the Dems will take over at least one chamber.

If we flip MN 7 along with the other 2 outstate districts, we are guaranteed +1 out of MN, more likely +2 or +3 if we hold the suburban districts. I just have a hard time understanding how the Dems expect to pick up 25 in the House while losing 3-5 in the Senate. And the more stories I see like this, the more I believe that’s total media fantasy.

If I were to guess right now, I’d say GOP +4 in the Senate, and Dem +3 to +5 in the House. But I’m far from ruling out a red tide scenario with up to +9 in the Senate and positive gains for the GOP in the House. I look at the early voting, the Trump rallies, the energy on our side, and I think there’s a good possibility of that kind of scenario.

“Check out this Marquette poll from October 2014.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2014/10/15/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-ties-in-wisconsin-races-for-both-governor-and-attorney-general/

Had Walker tied with Likely and +3 with Registered. Exactly the same as Oct 2018. Maybe same election day result...”

And I believe the final margin was fairly comfortable, something like 54-46 Walker. He has a strong political machine there in WI, so I expect him to pull it out.

“BOTH races in MN now close, Klobuchar only up 7, Housley has closed to within 3. Ellison crashing the whole D establishment there. He’ll lose big.”

I hope you’re right about this! I’m in MN but haven’t seen these polls yet. I know Ellison is a huge drag on the ticket, and the state GOP is wisely tying the other candidates to him in commercials. It’s hard to imagine Klobuchar losing though. If that happens, election night will be a national bloodbath for Dems.

“I’m not sure I’m calling BS on that. Here’s why:

The Dems are pushing hard in the West Coast and the East Coast - especially in states in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, California and Washington State. Electorally, those states are not kind to the GOP. There are endangered GOP incumbents and open seats in those areas tha are potentially ripe for the plucking.

Throw in some seats in fly-over country - for example Kevin Yoder in Kansas 3, Eric Paulson in Minnesota 3, Rod Blum in Iowa 1, etc - that are potentially ripe for the Democrats to pick up.

On the other hand, we do not have many possibilities for GOP pick-up - possibly Minnesota 1 and Minnesota 8 are a couple where we do have a chance.

I’m not being Stevie Downer here but let’s admit it, it’s not out of the realm of possibility for the Dems to pick up enough seats for control of the House - even in absence of their much vaunted blue wave.”

“not out of the realm of possibility” is a far cry from “86% chance”. I think we all acknowledge that this election could be close, but the Dems path to 25 is not that easy. Taking everything we know as of today in totality, I’d say it’s more like 70% GOP holds the House, 30% Dems take it. And even if Dems take control, it will likely only be a pickup of 25-30, not the 40 or 50 they are hoping for to gain firm control.

All that said - TAKE THIS AND ANY OTHER ANALYSIS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT AND GET OUT AND VOTE!!

I’ve already got my absentee ballot here in Mn. If you can vote early, might as well get it in there ASAP so you don’t have to worry about it on election day.

“The only problem is the Bush League Republicans in the Senate.

If we had more than 4 or 5 Senators on the side of the citizens and the rule of law it would help.”

This idea is a distinct possibility if we pick up 3 or 4 Senate seats like many are now predicting, and at the same time hold our losses in the House to around 10.