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“I’m not sure I’m calling BS on that. Here’s why:

The Dems are pushing hard in the West Coast and the East Coast - especially in states in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, California and Washington State. Electorally, those states are not kind to the GOP. There are endangered GOP incumbents and open seats in those areas tha are potentially ripe for the plucking.

Throw in some seats in fly-over country - for example Kevin Yoder in Kansas 3, Eric Paulson in Minnesota 3, Rod Blum in Iowa 1, etc - that are potentially ripe for the Democrats to pick up.

On the other hand, we do not have many possibilities for GOP pick-up - possibly Minnesota 1 and Minnesota 8 are a couple where we do have a chance.

I’m not being Stevie Downer here but let’s admit it, it’s not out of the realm of possibility for the Dems to pick up enough seats for control of the House - even in absence of their much vaunted blue wave.”

“not out of the realm of possibility” is a far cry from “86% chance”. I think we all acknowledge that this election could be close, but the Dems path to 25 is not that easy. Taking everything we know as of today in totality, I’d say it’s more like 70% GOP holds the House, 30% Dems take it. And even if Dems take control, it will likely only be a pickup of 25-30, not the 40 or 50 they are hoping for to gain firm control.

All that said - TAKE THIS AND ANY OTHER ANALYSIS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT AND GET OUT AND VOTE!!

I’ve already got my absentee ballot here in Mn. If you can vote early, might as well get it in there ASAP so you don’t have to worry about it on election day.