ANOTHER POTENTIAL GOP HOUSE PICKUP

The Democrats might capture the House this year, but every GOP pickup makes that prospect less likely. Here in Minnesota, we have two very strong pickup opportunities, open seats in the 1st and 8th Congressional districts, both of which went strongly for President Trump in 2016. I am pretty confident that the Republican candidates, Jim Hagedorn and Pete Stauber, will win those races.

Until now, hardly anyone has taken seriously the chance that Republican David Hughes can upset longtime Congressman Collin Peterson in Minnesota’s 7th. But, in a stunning move, Real Clear Politics now rates the contest a tossup.

Peterson has represented the 7th in Congress for 28 years, and has been personally popular in the district. But his vote totals have been slipping with each cycle, and the 7th went for President Trump by 30 points. Peterson has gotten less energetic over the years, and one suspects that he would like to retire. I liken him to Ruth Bader Ginsburg; the Democrats no doubt are pressuring him to stay on, knowing the seat will flip as soon as he retires.

But maybe the voters don’t want to wait that long. As a practical matter, Peterson, like all House Democrats, is little more than a vote for Nancy Pelosi as Speaker. David Hughes has essentially no money, but door knockers in the 7th report that they are seeing five or six Hughes lawn signs for every Peterson lawn sign. Alpha News has the story.

It is not too late to give Hughes some much-needed financial support. You can contribute to his campaign here.

“Really? After there have been hundreds, if not thousands of stories and words written about the races, you don’t understand the difference between the US Senate races and the House and why the dynamics are different? Really? Really?

I recommend doing a little bit of research to educate yourself. This isn’t hard. Really?”

Yeah so I get the fundamentals that we have 10 Dem senators running for reelection in red states and we have 45 or whatever GOP retirements and some unfavorable court decisions regarding redistricting working against us in the House. What I don’t get is how we could make SIGNIFICANT gains in the Senate and in the same year lose the House. And by significant, I mean picking up 3-5 Senate seats.

Before Kavanaugh, the polling had us gaining just 1 in North Dakota, and even that one was not a sure thing. At that time, there was also a risk of losing TN, NV and AZ Senate races, thus giving the Dems an outside shot at taking over the chamber. And back then, they were talking a 35-40 seat pickup for the Dems in the House.

Now North Dakota has become a foregone conclusion for the GOP, TN and NV are looking very solid, and AZ is looking good. On top of that, we have strong pickup opportunities in IN, MO, and perhaps MT. We also have decent pickup opportunities in FL, WV, and some possible surprises in NJ, MI, and MN.

My point was that, given that there appears to have been a fundamental shift in Senate races post-Kavanaugh, I have a hard time believing that there hasn’t been a similar shift in House races. I just think that the House districts are far more difficult to poll accurately, so it is not as easy to see the trend there. And in some cases, analysts don’t want to see it because they want to cling to their fantasy that the Dems will take over at least one chamber.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.