Posted on 04/01/2015 2:58:50 PM PDT by Kaslin
A pan-Arab military coalition has begun waging war in Yemen, ostensibly on behalf of deposed Yemeni President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. Is this Arab League-approved "joint army" a credible combat force?
That depends on who emerges as the joint army's central actor and commander.
So far, Saudi Arabia has served as the coalition's most prominent public advocate and actor. The Saudis contend Iran backs the Houthi insurgents who overthrew Hadi. Strong evidence supports their contention.
Yemen's war involves sectarian sympathies. Ayatollah-led Iran, the world's great Shia Muslim power, supports the Shia Houthi movement. Saudi Arabia's Wahabi-sect leaders have concluded that Iran intends to use a Houthi-infested Yemen to harass and destabilize their Sunni kingdom.
In concept, Iran's Yemen proxies would attack the Saudis in somewhat the same way Tehran uses its Lebanon-based Hezbollah proxies to harass and distract Israel. The Arabian Peninsula, rife with tribal factions, gives the Iranians numerous volatile human targets to rile and exploit. Fracturing these often delicate tribal political arrangements would be a major step toward achieving a beloved Iranian goal: toppling the Saud family regime.
Israel, a nation state rather than tribal confederation, presents Iran's ayatollahs with a much harder and more ferocious target. Nation states vary in strength, but the Israeli nation state is a high-technology, highly trained warrior nation state. Iran needs nuclear weapons to destroy the Israeli nation state. Unfortunately, ayatollah Iran's nuclear weapons quest, thanks to feckless western governments, including the current one in Washington, appears to be on the verge of succeeding.
The sectarian analysis of Iranian ambitions stresses Shia regional hegemony as Tehran's goal. It's there, but don't buy it as a sufficient answer. A "golden age" myth of Aryan divine and ethnic right to rule, circa Persian Empire 500 BC, seduces Tehran's ayatollahs. Yes, Aryan. Iran is "Aryanistan." If you didn't know that, well, now you do. Arabs are Semitic peoples. So are Jews. If you didn't know this ethnic dimension is in play, well, it is.
Now to the pan-Arab military force.
Money talks, and the Saudis have the bankroll. The Saudis also have an air force (flying U.S.-made jets) capable of conducting a credible air campaign. On March 26, the coalition's Operation Resolute Storm began with air strikes against various Houthi targets. The question is how long can they keep it up before logistic and maintenance deficiencies emerge? They can hire private contractors to provide these services.
At the moment, naval operations are secondary, though that could change if the Iranian-Houthi coalition takes complete control. Yemen's Southwestern edge borders the strait connecting the Indian Ocean and Red Sea. However, coalition naval operations indicate the centrality of the Arab world's strongest nation state: Egypt. Egypt's Al-Ahram reported that Egyptian warships shelled Houthi fighters advancing on the Yemeni port of Aden. Egyptian officials did not comment, on the record.
Ground operations will determine Yemen's winner, and Egypt's large and comparatively capable army is the pan-Arab coalition's decisive force.
Bankrolls matter, but the quality of generals, captains, sergeants and privates matters as well. At times their quality matters more than cash. Egypt and Jordan both have fair-to-good military reputations. Every regime can field a small elite force, but the Egyptian and Jordanian armies field larger units (brigades) with comparatively higher training standards than other Arab states. Last year, Egyptian forces conducted some cursory training exercises with countries now participating in the coalition, so that coalition's formation may not be as sudden as the headlines suggest. Egyptian advisers are reportedly in Saudi Arabia, on both the Iraq and Yemen borders.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi adds credibility to the coalition. Al-Sisi has the military skills. He also understands the ideological component. He has shaped his own country's fight as one against militant Islam, whether Sunni or Shiite. If al-Sisi has the final decision in the pan-Arab army's operations against Iranian proxies and -- potentially -- Iran itself, there is a very good chance it will prevail. If the Arab force fails? The Israelis won't.
[and 85-90% of the world's Muslims are Sunni, IOW, Shiites kill twice as many per capita]
Now that the Iranian-Arab cold war is a hot proxy war, what is preventing a large Iranian land army from charging across southern Iraq and into Kuwait and Saudi Arabia?
They’d take Kuwait and be in Riyadh in a week, then turn to Bahrain and Qatar.
Anyone think we’d do a damned thing about it? Anyone?
A REAL American President would arm both sides but arm Israel 5x as much. He would also ensure the war would not escalate elsewhere. Letting the satanic, moon worshippers kill each other, as they have done for millennia.
That would be if there were a REAL American President, not Pansy O’Venal.
The 2500 Hells Angels could take this bunch on and it wouldn’t be a fair fight
Muslims fighting Muslims. With American arms. What is not to like?
And this pan-arab army will soon turn into a mercenary and contractor force.
It’s not an Army. It’s a gaggle of Raiders who will fight until things go badly for them. Then they say Allah does not will it and retreat. That goes for any Arab force.
Not w zero in charge.
No matter the quality of their hardware, the Arabs are notoriously bad at both logistics and maintenance - Americans and Brits do most of that for them. Without us they cannot keep hardware in the field long enough to make a difference.
During Desert Storm they had V150 Light armored vehicles (google it). They bought Bradleys after DS/DS.
If they are deployed there are American advisers with them.
Who writes this crap?
He who pays the piper, calls the tune.
That would be the Saudi King Salman.
It is up to him to ensure capable leadership of the whole military enterprise - by getting the best and letting them do the job with minimal interference.
The Egyptian Army is a credible choice.
But they will probably (they should, if they are wise) want significant augmentation where they can get it.
The mercenaries fighting Boko Haram (formerly known as Executive Outcomes from South Africa) will probably be out of a job shortly after the newly elected muslim takes over as President in Nigeria.
Eric Prince, of the company formerly known as Blackwater, now lives in the United Arab Emirates. Just add money, and these guys could deliver a tailored bundle of whoop ass, that would amplify the effectiveness of any coalition. It is the kind of thing that the other side won’t have, and likely can’t get.
If the US has largely abandoned them, as it seems, (except for some search and rescue and such), then this is another avenue to bring some sophisticated Western military prowess to bear, and some additional tricks as well.
“what is preventing a large Iranian land army from charging across southern Iraq and into Kuwait and Saudi Arabia?”
1,200 Saudi main battle tanks, a greatly superior air force, likely Egypt and Jordan, and quite possibly Turkey. There is also the strategic risk of Pakistan - which is airlifting troops now to Saudi Arabia. What would Israel do, facing the prospect of an Iranian superpower gorged on oil wealth?
Over-extended and vulnerable supply lines through the open desert.
Significant domestic political risk from the losses, and from diverting regime resources away from repression of their own population.
Risk of a harsh international political backlash imposing crushing sanctions on their already struggling economy and government budget.
The risk that one day the fickle Obama may think that he should do something to make himself look good somehow.
The risks are huge for Iran. They are aggressive, but they are shrewd. A gradual approach works well for them, a full scale conflict could cost the regime everything. To paraphrase Machiavelli, if you strike at the King, be certain that you will kill him.
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