Posted on 02/17/2015 4:17:04 AM PST by Kaslin
Do Republicans have a realistic chance to win the next presidential election? Some analysts suggest the answer is no. They argue that there is a 240-electoral-vote "blue wall" of 18 states and D.C. that have gone Democratic in the last six presidential elections.
A Democratic nominee needs only 30 more electoral votes to win the presidency, they note accurately. A Republican nominee, they suggest, has little chance of breaking through the blue wall. He (or she) would have to win 270 of the 298 other electoral votes.
Democrats do have an advantage in the electoral vote, because heavily Democratic clusters clinch about 170 electoral votes for them, while Republicans have a lock on only about 105. But the blue wall theory, like all political rules of thumb, is true only till it's not. And this one could easily prove inoperative in a competitive 2016 race.
To see why, go back and put yourself in the shoes of a Democratic strategist following the 2004 presidential race. Assume that a stronger 2008 Democratic nominee will win all of John Kerry's 252 electoral votes (which happened). Then take a look at the states in which Kerry won 43 percent or more of the popular vote.
The four states in which Kerry won 48 percent or more -- Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Nevada -- were obvious targets, seriously contested in three or four of the previous four elections. Add Florida (47 percent for Kerry and obviously closely contested) and you have 318 electoral votes easily accessible in a good Democratic year.
What states should you target beyond that? It depends on who your nominee is. If it's Hillary Clinton, you might look at Missouri, Arkansas, Arizona, Tennessee and West Virginia. Bill Clinton won Arizona once and the other four twice, and Hillary Clinton won all but Missouri in the 2008 primaries. These states' 43 electoral votes raise the potential win to 361.
If your nominee is Barack Obama, your targets are different. You might look at Colorado, Virginia and North Carolina, plus Missouri. All but Colorado have large minority populations, and all but Missouri have large blocs of upscale whites -- groups among which Obama demonstrated strong appeal in 2008 primaries.
These states had 48 electoral votes in 2008. Obama won all but Missouri's 11 and made up for that by winning 11 in Indiana, a 39 percent Kerry state.
The lesson here is that in a favorable opinion climate, a party can successfully target previously unwinnable states containing voting blocs that can be moved or just mobilized. It helps greatly if, like Obama, they increase their turnout in primaries.
Likewise, a Republican strategist looking ahead to 2016 has 12 states where Mitt Romney won 43 to 49 percent of the vote in 2012. Add some significant share of their 146 electoral votes to the 206 Romney won, and you get well above the 270 majority.
At the top of the list are perennial targets Florida and Ohio. Just below, at 47 percent in favor of Romney, are Virginia and -- part of the supposedly immoveable blue wall -- Pennsylvania. Republicans nearly beat a popular Democratic senator in Virginia last year and have been making steady gains in blue-collar Western Pennsylvania. Those four states added to Romney's would give Republicans 286 electoral votes -- George W. Bush's winning total in 2004.
What states could Republicans target beyond that? A nominee with Midwestern appeal might go after Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota (42 electoral votes). One with Hispanic appeal could target Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico (20 electoral votes). One with appeal to upscale whites could target Colorado, New Hampshire and Minnesota (23 electoral votes). One with working-class appeal might choose Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan (32 electoral votes).
Critics might ask whether a 2016 Republican nominee can count on all the Romney states. Certainly not, if the party is as unpopular as it was in 2008. And North Carolina, a 48 percent Obama state, certainly looks like a realistic Democratic target in a close race.
But Obama got no more than 45 percent in other Romney states. Of the six where he got 44 or 45 percent, Democrats have had little success lately, even when running candidates better adapted to the local terrain than Hillary Clinton would be. None looks like a good Democratic target.
Republicans looking to 2016 can learn from Democrats' 2008 success. Target wisely, and think of states you haven't carried in years. And use the primaries to expand potentially favorable blocs.
” Hopefully it’s a major issue for Shillery, who would supplant Harrison as #2.”
Let’s see if she can dry out in detox first : )
It’s hard to imagine MD, NY, CA, or MA voting GOP for President ever again.
But we don’t need them to. PA, MN, WS, MI, OTOH, can go Republican and taking them would mean an easy victory.
” Yep, I am a regular old Bush-bot, everybody knows that, especially OWF”
LOL!!
I did a real tap dance on her, just before she “left”
My point is move on, and do better next time.
“If TedCruz and Scott Walker were the ticket, they would win... including CT and ME.”
A Republican will not win either of those two states. For Presidential elections, those two states are conquered territory under the democrat caliphate.
There are many formulas the GOP could get to 271.
Pick up a couple of states in the Midwest such as OH and IA.
Pick up a couple of states in the West such as NV and CO.
Pick up a couple of states in the South such as FL and VA.
Pick up a couple of states in the Northeast such as PA and NH.
History shows the public is usually ready for a change after eight years.
Changing demographic factors and increased public dependency on government largesse are factors which benefit the Democrats, but anything can happen in politics. The 2014 midterm elections demonstrated that the GOP can make inroads behind the blue curtain and did so in states such as MA, MD, WI, MI, ME, and IL.
I watched it on youtube just now and you are right.
youtube.com/watch?v=40qOHDrq45E
There is no blue wall. Its utter poppycock. The GOP have not put up a semi-worthy candidate since 2000. If we nominate a good candidate we will win.
Hey bartender!!
I'll have one of what ExCTCitizen is having!
“If They’re Smart” That is the key. Unfortunately I do not have a great deal of faith in the GOP for that to be the case. Certainly not among the GOPe.
Just one more reason to apportion EVs based on congressional districts and award the remaining two in each state to the winner of the popular vote in that state.
This prevents Chicago, NYC, LA, Detroit and San Francisco from making Illinois, New York, California and Michigan from being slam dunks for the Dems.
You are right. When a Republican candidate can knock off a incumbent dem Governor Maryland in the last election proves that!
Arguing with f***tards is akin to reading to a bag of cement - useless.
“It’s hard to imagine MD, NY, CA, or MA voting GOP for President ever again.”
100% agree. Not happening. Spare the “Well Ronald Reagan won them back in 1984!” schlock; many of those voters, who were real Americans are dead and been replaced with imports that have ZERO idea what 1984 in the USA was.
“And it was a different time too, a very different time and world and country.
No way could have an Obama been elected POTUS back then.”
G-D right!!!
“They could use a guy like Franco HERE IN THE USA right about now.”
“Chevy Chase has really porked up.”
The drugs and booze have caught up to him. It usually does.
“Chicago sunroof”: A half-prepped irma that usually occurs during the half moon phase of the Big Dipper, while in orbit from Jupiter’s outer moons.
FRANK RIZZO FRANK RIZZO FRANK RIZZO FRANK RIZZO FRANK RIZZO FRANK RIZZO FRANK RIZZO FRANK RIZZO FRANK RIZZO FRANK RIZZO FRANK RIZZO FRANK RIZZO FRANK RIZZO FRANK RIZZO FRANK RIZZO
Obama splaines it to them:
Anyone non-white or non-male or non-Christian was either a slave or second class citizen who couldn't ride in the front of public buses.
Then the GOP in response to civil rights bill privatized everything and only invited white males (and their wives) leaving the minorities homeless, or was that those subprime loans that Bush forced on them?
Then Obama passed Obamacare and the stimulus and everything got better, except the equality ratio......Obam says he needs another four years to make things fair and equal.
And now the Muzzies love us , just dont use the I word, its a slur just like 'ni..er', 'fag..t' and 'il..gal' are.
“...He was defeated in the Democratic primary by W. Wilson Goode, who went on to win election as the city’s first black Mayor. ....”
...the same Wilson Goode who would then go on to order a real live incendiary BOMB dropped from a police helicopter on top of a house in a black neighborhood and reduce it - and half the nighborhood - to fire charred ruins...
Just sayin’....
YES!!!!!!!!!!
YES!!!!!!!!!!
Keep saying it:
W. Wilson Goode, PHI’s FIRST BLACK MAYOR!!! W. Wilson Goode, PHI’s FIRST BLACK MAYOR!!! W. Wilson Goode, PHI’s FIRST BLACK MAYOR!!! W. Wilson Goode, PHI’s FIRST BLACK MAYOR!!! W. Wilson Goode, PHI’s FIRST BLACK MAYOR!!! W. Wilson Goode, PHI’s FIRST BLACK MAYOR!!! W. Wilson Goode, PHI’s FIRST BLACK MAYOR!!! W. Wilson Goode, PHI’s FIRST BLACK MAYOR!!! W. Wilson Goode, PHI’s FIRST BLACK MAYOR!!! W. Wilson Goode, PHI’s FIRST BLACK MAYOR!!! W. Wilson Goode, PHI’s FIRST BLACK MAYOR!!! W. Wilson Goode, PHI’s FIRST BLACK MAYOR!!! W. Wilson Goode, PHI’s FIRST BLACK MAYOR!!! W. Wilson Goode, PHI’s FIRST BLACK MAYOR!!! W. Wilson Goode, PHI’s FIRST BLACK MAYOR!!! W. Wilson Goode, PHI’s FIRST BLACK MAYOR!!! W. Wilson Goode, PHI’s FIRST BLACK MAYOR!!! W. Wilson Goode, PHI’s FIRST BLACK MAYOR!!!
Keep saying it:
SLAVE OWNERS WERE DEMOCRATS!!! SLAVE OWNERS WERE DEMOCRATS!!! SLAVE OWNERS WERE DEMOCRATS!!! SLAVE OWNERS WERE DEMOCRATS!!! SLAVE OWNERS WERE DEMOCRATS!!! SLAVE OWNERS WERE DEMOCRATS!!! SLAVE OWNERS WERE DEMOCRATS!!! SLAVE OWNERS WERE DEMOCRATS!!! SLAVE OWNERS WERE DEMOCRATS!!! SLAVE OWNERS WERE DEMOCRATS!!! SLAVE OWNERS WERE DEMOCRATS!!! SLAVE OWNERS WERE DEMOCRATS!!! SLAVE OWNERS WERE DEMOCRATS!!! SLAVE OWNERS WERE DEMOCRATS!!! SLAVE OWNERS WERE DEMOCRATS!!! SLAVE OWNERS WERE DEMOCRATS!!! SLAVE OWNERS WERE DEMOCRATS!!! SLAVE OWNERS WERE DEMOCRATS!!! SLAVE OWNERS WERE DEMOCRATS!!! SLAVE OWNERS WERE DEMOCRATS!!! SLAVE OWNERS WERE DEMOCRATS!!! SLAVE OWNERS WERE DEMOCRATS!!! SLAVE OWNERS WERE DEMOCRATS!!!
“I do not think that I will see another Republican president in my lifetime”. Well if we get nominees like Jeb Bush, I don’t much care if we ever see another Republican president. I’m just sick and tired of the establishment pretending to be something they are not. I still feel dirty for voting for McCain.
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