Posted on 11/02/2012 11:47:47 AM PDT by ScottinVA
With four days to go, President Obama and Mitt Romney are tied in the critical battleground state of Ohio.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters finds Obama and Romney each with 49% support. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, while one percent (1%) is undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Ohio remains one of eight Toss-Up states in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. Obama won the Buckeye State in 2008 by a 52% to 47% margin.
At the beginning of the week, Romney held a slight 50% to 48% advantage. It was the first time Romney has taken even a modest lead in the race of Ohio's 18 Electoral College votes since late May, but the two candidates have been within two percentage points of one another since then.
Forty percent (40%) of Ohio voters say they have already cast their ballots, and among these voters, the president has a comfortable 56% to 41% lead.
Both candidates earn better than 90% support from voters in their respective parties. The president is ahead 50% to 41% among voters not affiliated with either major political party.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Could someone post the internals for this poll?
Or Mitt knows he’s a lock in Ohio and he’s in PA to runup the score and divide Obama’s resources.
Independents will break for Romney.
BTW if you read Rasmussens synopsis ROmney does better on the economy, jobs and even favorability. And ties Obama on foreign policy etc. Weird shit in the polls this cycle.
And PA is icing on the cake, not a hail mary.
I think he had a Walker win his last poll. RCP had a Walker win as well from all the poll averages. This was the last few days before the election.
This notion that keeps being repeated here that all the polls were off on the Walker recall is just not true. At least not the last week of polls before the recall.
I find all the hand wringing about Romney being “desperate” by going to PA hilarious. Do you guys have access to Romney’s internals?
If there’s anything that’s for certain, is that Mitt Romney is going to going to do everything he can to make himself the 45th President. He’s no loser like McCain.
Don't you think they would have thought of that? :) They certainly have access to data unavailable to us mere mortals, and if it showed him losing Ohio, he'd be ignoring Pennsylvania and living in Wisconsin.
GOP candidates in Ohio always outperform their national poll percentages by one to three percent. Always. Even if Rasmussen is accurate in showing the race tied, I'm still convinced Romney wins here, and I'll stick to my original 51-49 prediction.
Almost every other poll, even PPP and Quinipiac, have Romney taking Ohio independents. Rasmussen is a liar.
That’s above my pay grade..Prayers for our nation
As has been documented, Gallup determined a flaw in the polling methods after that election. They've been pretty accurate since.
Perhaps Rasmussen meant to say that Romney has the independent lead. That would match these:
Romney lead among independents in NPR national poll: 51-39 Romney lead among independents in CBS/New York Times national poll: 51-39 Romney lead among independents in Pew national poll: 48-40 Romney lead among independents in Fox News national poll: 46-39
In 2008, per CNN the final exits were
D+8 (39/31/30)
For Obama, Dem 89-10 Rep 8-92 and Ind 52-44. If this poll is be believed, Obama is in trouble.
Sorry I don’t have that EV source, but I know it’s been posted on here, possibly repeatedly.
But if that 56-41 lead is true (some say it’s not) and about 1.5 million early votes have been cast, then the difference is 15% of 1.5 million, which is 225,000 and that’s not remotely good news.
It sounds fishy that Bonzo could be up THAT much.
Oh I agree. They’ve got an excellent likely voter screen. Gallups numbers in 2008 had me convinced McCain was done a week before the election despite all the protests to the contrary. I anxiously await their new poll. But I suspect it will tighten from where they had it because the independent numbers are trending away from ROmney a bit. Hopefully not too much.
Now, wait a minute. Bill Cunningham was on Hannity’s show yesterday and said that Romney was going to win Ohio, and he cited several reasons why. As a native Ohioan, I know what he was talking about. Haven’t lived there in about 30 years, but I still have relatives there. His reasons sound plausible, so I’m not about to go drown my sorrows in chocolate cake yet.
Come on now, tell us the other two.
Remember Ras showed Romney +2 a few days ago? Now he says tie. Dems say they have been working on the OH ground game for 4 years. We’ll see how many winos, illegals, and alzheimer’s patients they round up.
” We’ll see how many winos, illegals, and alzheimer’s patients they round up.”
Plenty
That’s what I hope- I cannot take 4 more years of Obama. He is our walking national nightmare.
Dang Ohio.
Something is very wrong here. Romney is whipping Obama with Independents nationally, consistently by 10-20%. And Mark Halperin even stated Romney was winning Ohio with Independents.
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-TV/2012/10/31/Halperin-Romney-Winning-Independents—In-Ohio
R/R will be in Columbus, OH Monday night.
If I may, I look the internals of all the Rasmussen polls and sometimes those figures jump up and down.
Just the other day in the presidential tracking the support of black people for Obama was “only” around 85%, than the next day went back around 95%. So don’t draw too many conclusions based on a single day poll internals.
The only conclusion is that the match is close, which we already knew.
This is God’s world and His decision. Pray that we the people seek repentance for all our sins and unbelief and that God blesses us with His chosen leader.
Maybe I will settle down after some time. Maybe not.
As of this moment at least, Chris Christie is my most hated Republican of all time. In a landslide.
Wed you will be praising Ohio and cursing Ras.
LoL! I’ll give you a hint.......amazingly, BO falls into the #2 type.
If Obama wins prepare to eat the dust from the golden calf!
Obama won by 4.5% in 2008, 51.5%-47%.
I find it hard to believe after 4 disastrous years, we can’t move 2.5 points up and down to give Romney the win. It would amount to swapping out about 130,000 votes.
How can Mitt tie Obama at 48% if Obama is leading independents by that much? I think Scott made a mistake in the wording. Typically Dems poll a bit more than Repubs, right? This would be a 50% Obama, 46% Romney poll if that were true.
Does anyone have the Platinum membership?
NumbersMuncher @NumbersMuncher
Not worth panicking over a 1.2 change in an Ohio poll though. Romney is getting good crossover support. If Romney wins indies he will win OH
You know what you’re talking about. I can’t believe there’s so many bedwetters on this thread. Romney takes Ohio comfortably. Any reports on early voting all clearly state that Obama is way underperforming (he may be ahead in Dem strongholds but he’s way way underperforming from 2008). Obama is getting a small surge from indies because of Sandy. That will evaporate by election day as indies remember they have no job, are paying $5/gallon for gas, the US is 16 trillion dollars in debt etc etc etc. It really is the economy stupids. No way Obama wins siting at 47% a few days beore the election.
Romney did good in the polls when he had his own big block of time that the media had to air, the convention and debates. With that gone, the media is in near complete control of what people see of Romney and Obama and how often they see it. And with 2 weeks post-debate, that's enough time to affect how people will vote. As far as political ads, both Romney and Obama have equal money, so those are going to be a wash.
All:
I am in Columbus Ohio and I do not believe this poll. I know Romney’s ground game has been very productive here. I have had them knock on my door and I have had mailings every day for at least 2 weeks. None from obama. All of the yard signs are for Romney with the exception of 2 signs for Dear Leader, yep only 2 yard signs in my area.
TV ads have been running forever all day every day for Romney. No one that I have spoken to are going to vote for obama. All Romney, even if they do not like him they are going to vote for him. I was a Republican for 30 yrs, but I am now an Independent voting for Romney!
I believe SE does.
Rasmussen has been pretty consistent in having Obama up among Indies. Him, and CNN. All others give them to Romney.
In April, Ras had Walker losing.
Monday, April 02, 2012 A majority of Wisconsin voters now support the effort to recall Republican Governor Scott Walker. A new Rasmussen Reports statewide survey shows that, if the recall election was held today, 52% of Likely Voters would vote to recall Governor Walker and remove him from office.
Unless God is Mormon, Mitt’s in big trouble then.
About that 50-41 advantage among indies for Obama. The recent polls are all over the map with that group. Here are the most recent measurements of indies:
Gravis Marketing (10/27) — R 53, O 41
UC Ohio Poll 10/25 - 10/30) — R 32, O 46
SurveyUSA (10/26 - 10/29) — R 48, O 37
If nobama is up 15 in early voting and 9 w independents how is it a tie ?
We didn’t need a study to tell us we’re not supposed to hire undocumented workers.
Sounds like the indies are going to make up their mind “in the booth.”
Lol that’s good. However, it was not one if the traits.
That fat ffff Christie was up to something and it wasn’t just helping his state. Like you say he could and would have gotten federal help anyhow. He was wayyy over the top in gushing praise about Obama personally.
It was a big blow to Romney and this country - to put Obama on his fat back and attempt to carry him across the finish line.
I guarantee there was a political back-door deal going on there.
You aren’t the only one having trouble with those numbers.
People are going to laugh when Tuesday night comes and Romney carries Ohio by 150,000 votes.
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