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Election 2012: Ohio President: Obama 49%, Romney 49%
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 2 November 2012 | Scott Rasmussen

Posted on 11/02/2012 11:47:47 AM PDT by ScottinVA

With four days to go, President Obama and Mitt Romney are tied in the critical battleground state of Ohio.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters finds Obama and Romney each with 49% support. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, while one percent (1%) is undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Ohio remains one of eight Toss-Up states in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. Obama won the Buckeye State in 2008 by a 52% to 47% margin.

At the beginning of the week, Romney held a slight 50% to 48% advantage. It was the first time Romney has taken even a modest lead in the race of Ohio's 18 Electoral College votes since late May, but the two candidates have been within two percentage points of one another since then.

Forty percent (40%) of Ohio voters say they have already cast their ballots, and among these voters, the president has a comfortable 56% to 41% lead.

Both candidates earn better than 90% support from voters in their respective parties. The president is ahead 50% to 41% among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; battleground; elections; melissaharrisperry; msnbc; ohio; partisanmediashill; partisanmediashills; romney
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To: MEG33

Could someone post the internals for this poll?


101 posted on 11/02/2012 12:31:18 PM PDT by mrs9x
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To: JediJones

Or Mitt knows he’s a lock in Ohio and he’s in PA to runup the score and divide Obama’s resources.


102 posted on 11/02/2012 12:31:18 PM PDT by GOPGuide
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To: comebacknewt
The primary concern for Independents is the economy and Romney wins that going away.

Independents will break for Romney.

103 posted on 11/02/2012 12:32:10 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: fortheDeclaration

BTW if you read Rasmussens synopsis ROmney does better on the economy, jobs and even favorability. And ties Obama on foreign policy etc. Weird shit in the polls this cycle.


104 posted on 11/02/2012 12:32:31 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: JediJones
He isn't going to lose Ohio.

And PA is icing on the cake, not a hail mary.

105 posted on 11/02/2012 12:33:43 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: fortheDeclaration

I think he had a Walker win his last poll. RCP had a Walker win as well from all the poll averages. This was the last few days before the election.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/governor/wi/wisconsin_governor_recall_election_walker_vs_barrett-3056.html

This notion that keeps being repeated here that all the polls were off on the Walker recall is just not true. At least not the last week of polls before the recall.


106 posted on 11/02/2012 12:33:47 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: ScottinVA

I find all the hand wringing about Romney being “desperate” by going to PA hilarious. Do you guys have access to Romney’s internals?

If there’s anything that’s for certain, is that Mitt Romney is going to going to do everything he can to make himself the 45th President. He’s no loser like McCain.


107 posted on 11/02/2012 12:33:50 PM PDT by Shadow44
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To: JediJones
He should be using WI, CO and NH to make up for losing OH.

Don't you think they would have thought of that? :) They certainly have access to data unavailable to us mere mortals, and if it showed him losing Ohio, he'd be ignoring Pennsylvania and living in Wisconsin.

GOP candidates in Ohio always outperform their national poll percentages by one to three percent. Always. Even if Rasmussen is accurate in showing the race tied, I'm still convinced Romney wins here, and I'll stick to my original 51-49 prediction.

108 posted on 11/02/2012 12:34:03 PM PDT by TonyInOhio (O-H-I-O, Barry - misspell our name and we kick you out!)
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To: fortheDeclaration

Almost every other poll, even PPP and Quinipiac, have Romney taking Ohio independents. Rasmussen is a liar.


109 posted on 11/02/2012 12:34:06 PM PDT by GOPGuide
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To: JediJones
PA is a Hail Mary by any measure. He should be using WI, CO and NH to make up for losing OH.

Get some air, neighbor. There is nothing wrong with reaching out to PA. And 'losing OH' come on, the vote hasn't happend yet, don't go giving it away till the votes are all counted. OH is going to be close and it is going to be bloody. A good rain storm on Weds is all we need to make it a firm Romney win.
110 posted on 11/02/2012 12:34:14 PM PDT by HenryArmitage (it was not meant that we should voyage far.)
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To: mrs9x

That’s above my pay grade..Prayers for our nation


111 posted on 11/02/2012 12:34:20 PM PDT by MEG33 (O Lord, Guide Our Nation)
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To: jwalsh07
'Of course they did miss President Dewey."

As has been documented, Gallup determined a flaw in the polling methods after that election. They've been pretty accurate since.

112 posted on 11/02/2012 12:34:20 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: ScottinVA
The president is ahead 50% to 41% among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Perhaps Rasmussen meant to say that Romney has the independent lead. That would match these:

Romney lead among independents in NPR national poll: 51-39 Romney lead among independents in CBS/New York Times national poll: 51-39 Romney lead among independents in Pew national poll: 48-40 Romney lead among independents in Fox News national poll: 46-39

113 posted on 11/02/2012 12:34:32 PM PDT by Siegfried X
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To: fortheDeclaration

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_governor_elections/wisconsin/wisconsin_recall_election_walker_50_barrett_45


114 posted on 11/02/2012 12:35:16 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: comebacknewt
I really think Chris Christie murdered the Romney campaign.

I don't think he murdered Romney. But he certainly hurt them badly at a particularly crucial time (when Romney was ready to close the deal on a consistent 3-4 point national lead).

I still say Obama is in a bad place for an incumbent, at 47-48% with 3 days to go. Romney still has the fundamentals and historical trends on his side.

Christie, I believe, is finished in the GOP. The anger with him is red hot. He threw his country under the bus to get some quick cash, when that money would have been provided, photo op or not.
115 posted on 11/02/2012 12:35:46 PM PDT by nhwingut (Get out & Vote as if your life was on the line. Because it is.)
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To: nhwingut; tatown; SoftwareEngineer; LS

In 2008, per CNN the final exits were

D+8 (39/31/30)

For Obama, Dem 89-10 Rep 8-92 and Ind 52-44. If this poll is be believed, Obama is in trouble.


116 posted on 11/02/2012 12:36:23 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: TonyInOhio

Sorry I don’t have that EV source, but I know it’s been posted on here, possibly repeatedly.

But if that 56-41 lead is true (some say it’s not) and about 1.5 million early votes have been cast, then the difference is 15% of 1.5 million, which is 225,000 and that’s not remotely good news.

It sounds fishy that Bonzo could be up THAT much.


117 posted on 11/02/2012 12:36:53 PM PDT by PermaRag (If Trayvon had a father, he'd look just like Obama)
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To: CatOwner

Oh I agree. They’ve got an excellent likely voter screen. Gallups numbers in 2008 had me convinced McCain was done a week before the election despite all the protests to the contrary. I anxiously await their new poll. But I suspect it will tighten from where they had it because the independent numbers are trending away from ROmney a bit. Hopefully not too much.


118 posted on 11/02/2012 12:38:04 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: CatOwner

Why Romney will win

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2953878/posts


119 posted on 11/02/2012 12:38:09 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: ScottinVA

Now, wait a minute. Bill Cunningham was on Hannity’s show yesterday and said that Romney was going to win Ohio, and he cited several reasons why. As a native Ohioan, I know what he was talking about. Haven’t lived there in about 30 years, but I still have relatives there. His reasons sound plausible, so I’m not about to go drown my sorrows in chocolate cake yet.


120 posted on 11/02/2012 12:38:09 PM PDT by Purrcival (Romney/Ryan 2012 -- let's do this!!)
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To: Toespi

Come on now, tell us the other two.


121 posted on 11/02/2012 12:38:09 PM PDT by Jeff Chandler (Soebarkah Soetoro)
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To: ScottinVA; sickoflibs; stephenjohnbanker; madison10; GonzoII; DoughtyOne; Gilbo_3; NFHale

Remember Ras showed Romney +2 a few days ago? Now he says tie. Dems say they have been working on the OH ground game for 4 years. We’ll see how many winos, illegals, and alzheimer’s patients they round up.


122 posted on 11/02/2012 12:39:46 PM PDT by ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas (Fool me once, shame on you -- twice, shame on me -- 100 times, it's U. S. immigration policy.)
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To: ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas

” We’ll see how many winos, illegals, and alzheimer’s patients they round up.”

Plenty


123 posted on 11/02/2012 12:41:30 PM PDT by stephenjohnbanker ((God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.))
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To: fortheDeclaration

That’s what I hope- I cannot take 4 more years of Obama. He is our walking national nightmare.

Dang Ohio.


124 posted on 11/02/2012 12:42:11 PM PDT by baileybat
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To: ScottinVA

Something is very wrong here. Romney is whipping Obama with Independents nationally, consistently by 10-20%. And Mark Halperin even stated Romney was winning Ohio with Independents.

http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-TV/2012/10/31/Halperin-Romney-Winning-Independents—In-Ohio


125 posted on 11/02/2012 12:43:54 PM PDT by NoobRep
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To: BlueStateRightist

R/R will be in Columbus, OH Monday night.


126 posted on 11/02/2012 12:44:56 PM PDT by epcot1982
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To: xuberalles

If I may, I look the internals of all the Rasmussen polls and sometimes those figures jump up and down.
Just the other day in the presidential tracking the support of black people for Obama was “only” around 85%, than the next day went back around 95%. So don’t draw too many conclusions based on a single day poll internals.

The only conclusion is that the match is close, which we already knew.


127 posted on 11/02/2012 12:45:18 PM PDT by Massimo75
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To: jonrick46

This is God’s world and His decision. Pray that we the people seek repentance for all our sins and unbelief and that God blesses us with His chosen leader.


128 posted on 11/02/2012 12:45:21 PM PDT by Maryhere ("HE comes to rule the earth")
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To: Sans-Culotte

Maybe I will settle down after some time. Maybe not.

As of this moment at least, Chris Christie is my most hated Republican of all time. In a landslide.


129 posted on 11/02/2012 12:48:39 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: baileybat

Wed you will be praising Ohio and cursing Ras.


130 posted on 11/02/2012 12:49:09 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Jeff Chandler

LoL! I’ll give you a hint.......amazingly, BO falls into the #2 type.


131 posted on 11/02/2012 12:49:21 PM PDT by Toespi
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To: Maryhere

If Obama wins prepare to eat the dust from the golden calf!


132 posted on 11/02/2012 12:50:01 PM PDT by 2nd Amendment (Vote Obama for national suicide)
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To: Perdogg

Obama won by 4.5% in 2008, 51.5%-47%.

I find it hard to believe after 4 disastrous years, we can’t move 2.5 points up and down to give Romney the win. It would amount to swapping out about 130,000 votes.


133 posted on 11/02/2012 12:50:14 PM PDT by nhwingut (Get out & Vote as if your life was on the line. Because it is.)
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To: Perdogg

How can Mitt tie Obama at 48% if Obama is leading independents by that much? I think Scott made a mistake in the wording. Typically Dems poll a bit more than Repubs, right? This would be a 50% Obama, 46% Romney poll if that were true.

Does anyone have the Platinum membership?


134 posted on 11/02/2012 12:50:34 PM PDT by tony777
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To: fortheDeclaration
Josh Jordan adds some expert information:

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Not worth panicking over a 1.2 change in an Ohio poll though. Romney is getting good crossover support. If Romney wins indies he will win OH

135 posted on 11/02/2012 12:51:38 PM PDT by TonyInOhio (O-H-I-O, Barry - misspell our name and we kick you out!)
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To: nhwingut

You know what you’re talking about. I can’t believe there’s so many bedwetters on this thread. Romney takes Ohio comfortably. Any reports on early voting all clearly state that Obama is way underperforming (he may be ahead in Dem strongholds but he’s way way underperforming from 2008). Obama is getting a small surge from indies because of Sandy. That will evaporate by election day as indies remember they have no job, are paying $5/gallon for gas, the US is 16 trillion dollars in debt etc etc etc. It really is the economy stupids. No way Obama wins siting at 47% a few days beore the election.


136 posted on 11/02/2012 12:52:26 PM PDT by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: CatOwner
Obama has been getting millions on TV and the front page of newspapers and web sites the past week. Romney has been getting spit.

Romney did good in the polls when he had his own big block of time that the media had to air, the convention and debates. With that gone, the media is in near complete control of what people see of Romney and Obama and how often they see it. And with 2 weeks post-debate, that's enough time to affect how people will vote. As far as political ads, both Romney and Obama have equal money, so those are going to be a wash.

137 posted on 11/02/2012 12:52:34 PM PDT by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
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To: ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas

All:

I am in Columbus Ohio and I do not believe this poll. I know Romney’s ground game has been very productive here. I have had them knock on my door and I have had mailings every day for at least 2 weeks. None from obama. All of the yard signs are for Romney with the exception of 2 signs for Dear Leader, yep only 2 yard signs in my area.

TV ads have been running forever all day every day for Romney. No one that I have spoken to are going to vote for obama. All Romney, even if they do not like him they are going to vote for him. I was a Republican for 30 yrs, but I am now an Independent voting for Romney!


138 posted on 11/02/2012 12:52:34 PM PDT by CELTICGAEL (Celt) (Sarah 2012!! "We The People" need you!)
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To: tony777; SoftwareEngineer

I believe SE does.


139 posted on 11/02/2012 12:52:51 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: jwalsh07

Rasmussen has been pretty consistent in having Obama up among Indies. Him, and CNN. All others give them to Romney.


140 posted on 11/02/2012 12:53:29 PM PDT by Tea Party Terrorist (Your tattoo looks stupid.)
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To: snarkytart
Was that the day of the recall election, because I remember everyone saying it was a tie?

In April, Ras had Walker losing.

Monday, April 02, 2012 A majority of Wisconsin voters now support the effort to recall Republican Governor Scott Walker. A new Rasmussen Reports statewide survey shows that, if the recall election was held today, 52% of Likely Voters would vote to recall Governor Walker and remove him from office.

141 posted on 11/02/2012 12:54:39 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: jonrick46

Unless God is Mormon, Mitt’s in big trouble then.


142 posted on 11/02/2012 12:56:09 PM PDT by delapaz
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To: All

About that 50-41 advantage among indies for Obama. The recent polls are all over the map with that group. Here are the most recent measurements of indies:

Gravis Marketing (10/27) — R 53, O 41
UC Ohio Poll 10/25 - 10/30) — R 32, O 46
SurveyUSA (10/26 - 10/29) — R 48, O 37


143 posted on 11/02/2012 12:56:47 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Pray hard!)
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To: ScottinVA

If nobama is up 15 in early voting and 9 w independents how is it a tie ?


144 posted on 11/02/2012 12:57:24 PM PDT by prov1813man (While the one you despise and ridicule works to protect you, those you embrace work to destroy you)
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To: Toespi

We didn’t need a study to tell us we’re not supposed to hire undocumented workers.


145 posted on 11/02/2012 12:57:50 PM PDT by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
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To: ScottinVA

Sounds like the indies are going to make up their mind “in the booth.”


146 posted on 11/02/2012 1:00:13 PM PDT by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
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To: CELTICGAEL (Celt)
I just came back from TRYING to see Romney in Etna. Couldn't get anywhere near the place. Cars were having to park a few miles away and walk to where the rally was. And like you, I have seen very few Obama signs and a lot of Romney signs. Yesterday I stopped by the Reynoldsburg election headquarters and they had some brochures left; no signs and no stickers.
147 posted on 11/02/2012 1:02:31 PM PDT by flutters (God Bless The USA)
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To: JediJones

Lol that’s good. However, it was not one if the traits.


148 posted on 11/02/2012 1:03:46 PM PDT by Toespi
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To: comebacknewt

That fat ffff Christie was up to something and it wasn’t just helping his state. Like you say he could and would have gotten federal help anyhow. He was wayyy over the top in gushing praise about Obama personally.

It was a big blow to Romney and this country - to put Obama on his fat back and attempt to carry him across the finish line.

I guarantee there was a political back-door deal going on there.


149 posted on 11/02/2012 1:07:31 PM PDT by over3Owithabrain
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To: BlackBeauty

You aren’t the only one having trouble with those numbers.
People are going to laugh when Tuesday night comes and Romney carries Ohio by 150,000 votes.


150 posted on 11/02/2012 1:08:31 PM PDT by Clump ( the tree of liberty is withering like a stricken fig tree)
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