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Posted on 11/02/2012 11:47:47 AM PDT by ScottinVA
With four days to go, President Obama and Mitt Romney are tied in the critical battleground state of Ohio.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters finds Obama and Romney each with 49% support. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, while one percent (1%) is undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Ohio remains one of eight Toss-Up states in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. Obama won the Buckeye State in 2008 by a 52% to 47% margin.
At the beginning of the week, Romney held a slight 50% to 48% advantage. It was the first time Romney has taken even a modest lead in the race of Ohio's 18 Electoral College votes since late May, but the two candidates have been within two percentage points of one another since then.
Forty percent (40%) of Ohio voters say they have already cast their ballots, and among these voters, the president has a comfortable 56% to 41% lead.
Both candidates earn better than 90% support from voters in their respective parties. The president is ahead 50% to 41% among voters not affiliated with either major political party.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Why are you on every thread projecting doom and gloom?
You get real. The polls are never wrong in the end. The person they have winning always wins. Maybe not by the margin they have it but you get the drift. RCP average is usually pretty solig within a point or two. Get your head out of the sand.
Christie probably just cost us the election with his super over the top praise and photo op making Obama seem more with it and presidential than he has this entire election cycle.
And what? FEMA still took four days to hit the ground and NJ/NY is still an effing mess. But yea they got the photo op and Christie got his fat claws on tons of Federal money.
Its all good. So what Romney loses and the country is screwed.
JUDAS.
Could that be a misprint? Because I don't see how that depressing internal leads to Romney running even with Obama.
49 + 49 + 2 + 1 = 101
Are these figures rounded, or is a 1% fraud adjustment factored into this poll?
Enough to erase a 14-point deficit? I doubt it.
I checked InTrade earlier and they’ve got Obama’s chances of winning at 66%. That, along with poll movement toward Obama, has me feeling shaky about Romney’s prospects.
He needs a clear margin of victory to win, and I just don’t see it. The left is still reeling from Gore/Bush in 2000, and they’ll manufacture enough votes to ensure that they don’t lose the presidency again in such a case.
It’s been posted on some other threads here; something like McCain was down by 250,000 or so in early voting in 2008 and this year.... Romney isn’t down quite so much.
Keep in mind that nobody knows how early *voting* is going, they only know early *ballot requests*. Not who the requestors actually voted for, and not even whether the ballot was returned.
Sorry.
I remember reading a rather factual study about ten years ago. It was an employers guide regarding specifics types of people to avoid hiring. The percentage of accuracy for the top three types was off the charts. I will not mention two of the three, BUT number one was, younger obese people, who do not have medical conditions as the cause. The logic was, lazy, emotional problems, self-gratifying, dishonest and angry.
this is a Rass. poll not RCP but point taken.
Gold, one of the three metals one must have in times of tumalt: Gold, silver, lead.
Yes so obviously 40% havent voted closer to 26%. So ras is really sayin that obama is ahead 56 to 41 with the 26% that have voted. And romney is ahead with the other 74%.
Per ballots and early voting, I can show u later how obama is also not ahead 56 to 41 at this time. Data doesnt support that.
5,295,286 votes were cast in Ohio in the 2008 Elections. Obama won by approximately 260,000 votes.
Have a source for that big Obama lead in early voting yet? i can't find one.
Did you see those economy numbers? Romney up +6 on economy, +5 on jobs. Nearly tied everywhere else.
I see no internal breakdown of Party affliation.
Wasn’t John Kerry suppose to win Ohio???
I get amazed at people panicking over a poll that’s heavily biased towards Democrats and which purports to show that OH is lost!
Get a grip, people! A lot of votes have still not been cast. This is a turnout election. If you want to make a self-fulfilling prophecy, wring your hands and stay home!
This poll shows nothing of the kind people read into it. And O is not at 50% in OH and around the country! Bottom line, that’s the only figure that really matters.
All the rest is a sideshow.
too bad they wont become knowledgeable about how elections, campaigns, and polling really work.
That's what CatOwner does, from way back in 2008 on.
Obama wins Indys by 8? Bullshit. Even Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA and PPP have Romney winning Ohio Independents. Rasmussen’s fudging the OH Independent vote because a close race brings in more money than a blowout. Expect Rasmussen’s last poll to show a sudden surge for Romney in Ohio.
The GOP is going to win Ohio.
lame attempt at comedy I must say.
Quinnipiac, Gravis, PPP, and SurveyUSA have Romney leading OH independents.
A single poll and you guys are ready to quit.
Ohio will go GOP like the rest of the nation.
And Wed. we can come back to this thread and show it was nonsense, Independents are not going for Obama.
Rasmussen had Indies leaning towards Obama in the last poll too. So not a big change.
Rasmussen and Time Mag poll are the only two Ohio polls (out of 20) showing Obama up with Indies.
Not sure if it’s Rasmussen’s likely voter screen. Hard to tell.
Bottomline. It’s a close race. I am relying on what I heard from Bill Cunningham on Hannity’s show yesterday. He guaranteed a Romney win in Ohio. He predicted the opposite in 2008.
40 percent haven’t voted. That puts all of Rasmussen’s Ohio numbers into unreliability.
Obama has been getting millions on TV and the front page of newspapers and web sites the past week. Romney has been getting spit. Which one you think will have the most effect? Those taking a quick peak at the election, or rabid fans showing to see a candidate speak?
A tidal wave is going to hit Ohio, like it is the rest of the nation.
I am glad you guys weren’t at Valley Forge.
True!
Yeah, I know, it’s why I always use the caveat word “if” when commenting on polls. The polls have been all over the map and are right now coalescing around a tie everywhere. Except for Gallup before it stopped polling. Gallup has an exemplary track record in presidential elections for the past 80 years or so so I put a lot of cred in their last weeks numbers. Of course they did miss President Dewey.
Where is LS with his OH early voting data when we need him? :)
I got a pretty good source for that one.
I call baloney
I really think Chris Christie murdered the Romney campaign.
I am not giving up hope, but he gave the Kenyan the cover he desperately needed to appear moderate which allowed him to win back the Indie voters.
I hope he never wins another race as long as he lives. Even John Roberts’ betrayal wasn’t as bad as Christie’s.
Notice that they, the Pollsters, never get around to saying how many telephonees told them to get the bleep off their phone and their preference is none of the pollster’s business.. And there is no honest mathematical way to compensate for either those or the people who simply can’t be reached by phone——especially during elections. God bless caller ID.
The fact is Ohio is going GOP like the rest of the nation, it always follows the national trend.
Did Ras have a blowout win for Walker in WI?
He had it as a tie.
Wow!! What a bunch of hand-wringers.
It’s a tie ball game. Romney was predicted to lose this state going away a few weeks back. And here we are with 3 days to go, and it’s deadlocked.
Romney up about 5 on the two issues related to the economy.
Calm down, people. Romney has a great opportunity to close this deal. And that’s what he does best.
John Kasich - OH’s governor says Romney will win!
If he really thought it wasn’t true, he wouldn’t stick his neck out.
And the Romney rally in OH draws big crowds; the Obama rally drew piddling crowds.
If that’s a measure of how the race is going, Romney is in good shape!
I think Rasmussen’s numbers don’t reflect the reality on the ground in OH. I don’t trust his numbers here.
In 2010, he called the special election in MA for Martha Coakley. We all know how that one went!
Bottom line? I am confident Romney will win. The data in this poll is garbage.
PA is a Hail Mary by any measure. He should be using WI, CO and NH to make up for losing OH.
Clearly, they are oversampling Democrats but not listing it.
I think you need to reconsider that statement. If Christie's endorsement were that big a deal, he will be the next president. And if Roberts had not betrayed us (or come out of the libtard closet), this election would not be as important as it is.
Romney would be ahead by at least 3 if Rasmussen has more Rs in his Ohio model than Ds and he shows Romney tied with Obama among Indys. Rasmussen can’t show Romney putting away Ohio so he’s fudging the independent vote.
Actually they are usually a point or so +R compared to the national vote as they were in 2008. But the indie numbers here are a tad bothersome. Of course if the indie sample size is low the MOE is high but still....
Whoops, you got me there - I was working off of a premlimary version of that page. My apologies for the error.
I sure wish I could find a reference to Obama's big lead in early voting - everything I've found shows a slim lead, but nothing like the large margins he had in 2008. If Romney can limit Obama's lead in early voting to less than 100,000 or so, he'll win.
That is what it could be, but I just do not know what is wrong with voters.
I see a country in shambles- am I wrong?
How any thinking person could vote for 4 more years of O amazes me!
Have these soccer moms not shopped for groceries in 4 years?
If Ohio and America votes for Obama...we are doomed.
Take your loser mentality somewhere else, I am sure the DU would love you over there.
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