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Election 2012: Ohio President: Obama 49%, Romney 49%
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 2 November 2012 | Scott Rasmussen

Posted on 11/02/2012 11:47:47 AM PDT by ScottinVA

With four days to go, President Obama and Mitt Romney are tied in the critical battleground state of Ohio.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters finds Obama and Romney each with 49% support. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, while one percent (1%) is undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Ohio remains one of eight Toss-Up states in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. Obama won the Buckeye State in 2008 by a 52% to 47% margin.

At the beginning of the week, Romney held a slight 50% to 48% advantage. It was the first time Romney has taken even a modest lead in the race of Ohio's 18 Electoral College votes since late May, but the two candidates have been within two percentage points of one another since then.

Forty percent (40%) of Ohio voters say they have already cast their ballots, and among these voters, the president has a comfortable 56% to 41% lead.

Both candidates earn better than 90% support from voters in their respective parties. The president is ahead 50% to 41% among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; battleground; elections; melissaharrisperry; msnbc; ohio; partisanmediashill; partisanmediashills; romney
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To: CatOwner

Why are you on every thread projecting doom and gloom?


51 posted on 11/02/2012 12:08:02 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Hammerhead

You get real. The polls are never wrong in the end. The person they have winning always wins. Maybe not by the margin they have it but you get the drift. RCP average is usually pretty solig within a point or two. Get your head out of the sand.
Christie probably just cost us the election with his super over the top praise and photo op making Obama seem more with it and presidential than he has this entire election cycle.
And what? FEMA still took four days to hit the ground and NJ/NY is still an effing mess. But yea they got the photo op and Christie got his fat claws on tons of Federal money.

Its all good. So what Romney loses and the country is screwed.

JUDAS.


52 posted on 11/02/2012 12:08:10 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: ScottinVA
The president is ahead 50% to 41% among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Could that be a misprint? Because I don't see how that depressing internal leads to Romney running even with Obama.

53 posted on 11/02/2012 12:08:49 PM PDT by hcmama
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To: ScottinVA
... Obama and Romney each with 49% support. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, while one percent (1%) is undecided.

49 + 49 + 2 + 1 = 101

Are these figures rounded, or is a 1% fraud adjustment factored into this poll?

54 posted on 11/02/2012 12:09:44 PM PDT by Gee Wally
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To: ScottinVA

Enough to erase a 14-point deficit? I doubt it.

I checked InTrade earlier and they’ve got Obama’s chances of winning at 66%. That, along with poll movement toward Obama, has me feeling shaky about Romney’s prospects.

He needs a clear margin of victory to win, and I just don’t see it. The left is still reeling from Gore/Bush in 2000, and they’ll manufacture enough votes to ensure that they don’t lose the presidency again in such a case.


55 posted on 11/02/2012 12:10:13 PM PDT by Cato in PA (1/26/12: Bloody Thursday)
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To: TonyInOhio

It’s been posted on some other threads here; something like McCain was down by 250,000 or so in early voting in 2008 and this year.... Romney isn’t down quite so much.

Keep in mind that nobody knows how early *voting* is going, they only know early *ballot requests*. Not who the requestors actually voted for, and not even whether the ballot was returned.


56 posted on 11/02/2012 12:10:17 PM PDT by PermaRag (If Trayvon had a father, he'd look just like Obama)
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To: ScottinVA

Sorry.


57 posted on 11/02/2012 12:10:27 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: Mouton
Now is the time to buy gold. It has fallen sharply today. If ever there was a time, NOW is the time to get some. http://www.ajpm.com/
58 posted on 11/02/2012 12:10:40 PM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: ilgipper

I remember reading a rather factual study about ten years ago. It was an employers guide regarding specifics types of people to avoid hiring. The percentage of accuracy for the top three types was off the charts. I will not mention two of the three, BUT number one was, younger obese people, who do not have medical conditions as the cause. The logic was, lazy, emotional problems, self-gratifying, dishonest and angry.


59 posted on 11/02/2012 12:11:59 PM PDT by Toespi
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To: Hammerhead

this is a Rass. poll not RCP but point taken.


60 posted on 11/02/2012 12:12:16 PM PDT by HenryArmitage (it was not meant that we should voyage far.)
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To: Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America

Gold, one of the three metals one must have in times of tumalt: Gold, silver, lead.


61 posted on 11/02/2012 12:12:19 PM PDT by Mouton (Voting is an opiate of the electorate. Nothing changes no matter who wins..)
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To: PermaRag

Yes so obviously 40% havent voted closer to 26%. So ras is really sayin that obama is ahead 56 to 41 with the 26% that have voted. And romney is ahead with the other 74%.

Per ballots and early voting, I can show u later how obama is also not ahead 56 to 41 at this time. Data doesnt support that.


62 posted on 11/02/2012 12:13:03 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: PermaRag
Turnout was 5.7 in 2008 in Ohio too, and 5.6 million in 2004; it will be remarkable if it *doesn’t* get to 5.7 million in 2012, not if it *does*.

5,295,286 votes were cast in Ohio in the 2008 Elections. Obama won by approximately 260,000 votes.

Have a source for that big Obama lead in early voting yet? i can't find one.

63 posted on 11/02/2012 12:13:08 PM PDT by TonyInOhio (O-H-I-O, Barry - misspell our name and we kick you out!)
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To: TonyInOhio

Did you see those economy numbers? Romney up +6 on economy, +5 on jobs. Nearly tied everywhere else.


64 posted on 11/02/2012 12:13:14 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: ScottinVA

I see no internal breakdown of Party affliation.


65 posted on 11/02/2012 12:13:40 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: All

Wasn’t John Kerry suppose to win Ohio???


66 posted on 11/02/2012 12:14:20 PM PDT by KevinDavis (And you, be ye fruitful, and multiply; bring forth abundantly in the earth, and multiply therein.)
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To: hcmama

I get amazed at people panicking over a poll that’s heavily biased towards Democrats and which purports to show that OH is lost!

Get a grip, people! A lot of votes have still not been cast. This is a turnout election. If you want to make a self-fulfilling prophecy, wring your hands and stay home!

This poll shows nothing of the kind people read into it. And O is not at 50% in OH and around the country! Bottom line, that’s the only figure that really matters.

All the rest is a sideshow.


67 posted on 11/02/2012 12:14:20 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: VanDeKoik; DarthVader
great point. instead of productively using time to make calls from home for Romney or a senate candidate in their state, they would rather bow down daily to rasmoosen and the other poll monkeys and wet their diapers.

too bad they wont become knowledgeable about how elections, campaigns, and polling really work.

68 posted on 11/02/2012 12:14:23 PM PDT by kingattax (99 % of liberals give the rest a bad name)
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To: fortheDeclaration
Why are you on every thread projecting doom and gloom?

That's what CatOwner does, from way back in 2008 on.

69 posted on 11/02/2012 12:14:26 PM PDT by TonyInOhio (O-H-I-O, Barry - misspell our name and we kick you out!)
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To: ScottinVA

Obama wins Indys by 8? Bullshit. Even Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA and PPP have Romney winning Ohio Independents. Rasmussen’s fudging the OH Independent vote because a close race brings in more money than a blowout. Expect Rasmussen’s last poll to show a sudden surge for Romney in Ohio.


70 posted on 11/02/2012 12:14:26 PM PDT by GOPGuide
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To: ScottinVA
Yea, he was up 2% yesterday, but now is even so he decided to go to PA-that makes sense.

The GOP is going to win Ohio.

71 posted on 11/02/2012 12:14:58 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Perdogg

So, are these people crazy or correct?

http://www.unskewedpolls.com/dailytrackingpoll.cfm


72 posted on 11/02/2012 12:15:35 PM PDT by Salamander (Wounded, old and dangerous.)
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To: snarkytart

lame attempt at comedy I must say.


73 posted on 11/02/2012 12:16:17 PM PDT by Hammerhead
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To: jwalsh07

Quinnipiac, Gravis, PPP, and SurveyUSA have Romney leading OH independents.


74 posted on 11/02/2012 12:17:03 PM PDT by GOPGuide
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To: xuberalles
You guys really are pathetic!

A single poll and you guys are ready to quit.

Ohio will go GOP like the rest of the nation.

And Wed. we can come back to this thread and show it was nonsense, Independents are not going for Obama.

75 posted on 11/02/2012 12:17:38 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: tatown

Rasmussen had Indies leaning towards Obama in the last poll too. So not a big change.

Rasmussen and Time Mag poll are the only two Ohio polls (out of 20) showing Obama up with Indies.

Not sure if it’s Rasmussen’s likely voter screen. Hard to tell.

Bottomline. It’s a close race. I am relying on what I heard from Bill Cunningham on Hannity’s show yesterday. He guaranteed a Romney win in Ohio. He predicted the opposite in 2008.


76 posted on 11/02/2012 12:18:46 PM PDT by nhwingut (Get out & Vote as if your life was on the line. Because it is.)
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To: fortheDeclaration

40 percent haven’t voted. That puts all of Rasmussen’s Ohio numbers into unreliability.


77 posted on 11/02/2012 12:18:46 PM PDT by LowTaxesEqualsProsperity
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To: zt1053
"Obama drew only 2600 today and Romney is expected to draw 50,000 tonight. I would hardly say its over."

Obama has been getting millions on TV and the front page of newspapers and web sites the past week. Romney has been getting spit. Which one you think will have the most effect? Those taking a quick peak at the election, or rabid fans showing to see a candidate speak?

78 posted on 11/02/2012 12:19:16 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: TonyInOhio
Exactly! The Democrats are getting out their early vote from their primary voters, ours are going to vote on Nov.6th.

A tidal wave is going to hit Ohio, like it is the rest of the nation.

79 posted on 11/02/2012 12:19:16 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Cato in PA

I am glad you guys weren’t at Valley Forge.


80 posted on 11/02/2012 12:19:46 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: kingattax

True!


81 posted on 11/02/2012 12:20:50 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: GOPGuide

Yeah, I know, it’s why I always use the caveat word “if” when commenting on polls. The polls have been all over the map and are right now coalescing around a tie everywhere. Except for Gallup before it stopped polling. Gallup has an exemplary track record in presidential elections for the past 80 years or so so I put a lot of cred in their last weeks numbers. Of course they did miss President Dewey.


82 posted on 11/02/2012 12:21:42 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: GOPGuide

Where is LS with his OH early voting data when we need him? :)


83 posted on 11/02/2012 12:21:47 PM PDT by Qwackertoo (Romney/Ryan 2012 The Future of Our Children and Their Children are at stake.)
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To: TonyInOhio
5.7 million votes were cast for President in Ohio in 2008, not 5.2 million.

I got a pretty good source for that one.

84 posted on 11/02/2012 12:22:00 PM PDT by PermaRag (If Trayvon had a father, he'd look just like Obama)
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To: ScottinVA

I call baloney


85 posted on 11/02/2012 12:22:24 PM PDT by Puddleglum (The road to the White House goes through Benghazi.)
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To: ScottinVA

I really think Chris Christie murdered the Romney campaign.

I am not giving up hope, but he gave the Kenyan the cover he desperately needed to appear moderate which allowed him to win back the Indie voters.

I hope he never wins another race as long as he lives. Even John Roberts’ betrayal wasn’t as bad as Christie’s.


86 posted on 11/02/2012 12:23:15 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: ScottinVA

Notice that they, the Pollsters, never get around to saying how many telephonees told them to get the bleep off their phone and their preference is none of the pollster’s business.. And there is no honest mathematical way to compensate for either those or the people who simply can’t be reached by phone——especially during elections. God bless caller ID.


87 posted on 11/02/2012 12:23:50 PM PDT by cherokee1 (skip the names---just kick the buttz)
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To: jwalsh07
No way the Independents break for Obama in Ohio or anywhere else.

The fact is Ohio is going GOP like the rest of the nation, it always follows the national trend.

88 posted on 11/02/2012 12:23:51 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: snarkytart
The Polls are never wrong?

Did Ras have a blowout win for Walker in WI?

He had it as a tie.

89 posted on 11/02/2012 12:25:40 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: ScottinVA

Wow!! What a bunch of hand-wringers.

It’s a tie ball game. Romney was predicted to lose this state going away a few weeks back. And here we are with 3 days to go, and it’s deadlocked.

Romney up about 5 on the two issues related to the economy.

Calm down, people. Romney has a great opportunity to close this deal. And that’s what he does best.


90 posted on 11/02/2012 12:26:15 PM PDT by nhwingut (Get out & Vote as if your life was on the line. Because it is.)
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To: LowTaxesEqualsProsperity

John Kasich - OH’s governor says Romney will win!

If he really thought it wasn’t true, he wouldn’t stick his neck out.

And the Romney rally in OH draws big crowds; the Obama rally drew piddling crowds.

If that’s a measure of how the race is going, Romney is in good shape!

I think Rasmussen’s numbers don’t reflect the reality on the ground in OH. I don’t trust his numbers here.

In 2010, he called the special election in MA for Martha Coakley. We all know how that one went!

Bottom line? I am confident Romney will win. The data in this poll is garbage.


91 posted on 11/02/2012 12:26:26 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: ScottinVA
I’m thinking the data behind these two statements are why Romney ventured into PA

PA is a Hail Mary by any measure. He should be using WI, CO and NH to make up for losing OH.

92 posted on 11/02/2012 12:26:26 PM PDT by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
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To: hcmama
Good point.

Clearly, they are oversampling Democrats but not listing it.

93 posted on 11/02/2012 12:26:33 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: comebacknewt
I hope he never wins another race as long as he lives. Even John Roberts’ betrayal wasn’t as bad as Christie’s.

I think you need to reconsider that statement. If Christie's endorsement were that big a deal, he will be the next president. And if Roberts had not betrayed us (or come out of the libtard closet), this election would not be as important as it is.

94 posted on 11/02/2012 12:27:30 PM PDT by Sans-Culotte ( Pray for Obama- Psalm 109:8)
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To: nhwingut

Romney would be ahead by at least 3 if Rasmussen has more Rs in his Ohio model than Ds and he shows Romney tied with Obama among Indys. Rasmussen can’t show Romney putting away Ohio so he’s fudging the independent vote.


95 posted on 11/02/2012 12:27:41 PM PDT by GOPGuide
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To: fortheDeclaration

Actually they are usually a point or so +R compared to the national vote as they were in 2008. But the indie numbers here are a tad bothersome. Of course if the indie sample size is low the MOE is high but still....


96 posted on 11/02/2012 12:28:35 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: PermaRag
5.7 million votes were cast for President in Ohio in 2008, not 5.2 million..

Whoops, you got me there - I was working off of a premlimary version of that page. My apologies for the error.

I sure wish I could find a reference to Obama's big lead in early voting - everything I've found shows a slim lead, but nothing like the large margins he had in 2008. If Romney can limit Obama's lead in early voting to less than 100,000 or so, he'll win.

97 posted on 11/02/2012 12:28:59 PM PDT by TonyInOhio (O-H-I-O, Barry - misspell our name and we kick you out!)
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To: FReepers


SUPPORT OUR TROOPS


GIVE THEM A NEW CIC

FREE REPUBLIC NEEDS YOU...CLICK

98 posted on 11/02/2012 12:29:12 PM PDT by MEG33 (O Lord, Guide Our Nation)
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To: fortheDeclaration

That is what it could be, but I just do not know what is wrong with voters.

I see a country in shambles- am I wrong?

How any thinking person could vote for 4 more years of O amazes me!

Have these soccer moms not shopped for groceries in 4 years?

If Ohio and America votes for Obama...we are doomed.


99 posted on 11/02/2012 12:29:55 PM PDT by baileybat
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To: CatOwner
As if Ohio hasn't been bombarded with Political ad's for months.

Take your loser mentality somewhere else, I am sure the DU would love you over there.

100 posted on 11/02/2012 12:30:35 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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