Perhaps Rasmussen meant to say that Romney has the independent lead. That would match these:
Romney lead among independents in NPR national poll: 51-39 Romney lead among independents in CBS/New York Times national poll: 51-39 Romney lead among independents in Pew national poll: 48-40 Romney lead among independents in Fox News national poll: 46-39
I swear there is more whining on FR right now than at probably any burn unit in the country.
It seems pretty clear to me that Ras completely biffed this one.
The premise is that 40% of the vote total is already in, zero is up by big in that early vote, and zero is up by nine with Independents- clearly leaving the race tied. /sarc
Obviously two things are erroneous and need to be fixed.
One, the premise about 40% of the final vote total already being in.
That’s pure garbage. Maybe there will be 1.5 million early votes but the final total will be well more than 3 times that.
Second, it’s seems clear that Ras transposed the 9 point lead for zero with independents and that lead is held by Romney.
When you fix those two things a tied race is plausible.