I looked at the elections for the past 60 years that were essentially a two-party race. I came up with this graph, which shows how the democrat candidate's popular vote translated to electoral votes:
Posted on 11/02/2012 7:14:02 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
On the Friday before Election Day, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll showed the race tied at 48% for Obama and 48% for Romney.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
These are fun-tainment polls. Candidates aren’t using them, so please stop reacting like they are more than just conversation pieces.
Some of you need a new interest. Politics don’t go with weak stomachs.
So anybody calling for voter ID will immediately be tagged as a racist who wants to suppress minority vote. Until conservatives develop a spine to stop this foolishness, the voter fraud will only increase.
Unfortunately, you're right. Sadly, the MSM is keeping the scene from their viewers. I hear FoxNews is there reporting it.
If these polls are correct (and I have no idea if they are)
Romney would probably have more to gain by cancelling his tour and going to NY and giving the rest of his campaign money to the people and roll up his sleeves and help the relief crews while Obama runs around the country as the candidate he has been for the last 4+ years. That's about as useless as Obama has been for this nation.
Yes, People need to cut Romney some slack on Libya. There is a media blackout on the story and it will never have legs. Looks like "O has the mo" now.
The past few years have been tough on us. We get dejected, then hopeful, and then our hopes are dashed. First we endured the election of an America-hating Marxist. Then they started on Obamacare. Just when it looked bleak, the Stupak group was going to save us. They capitulated and it was passed. Then, Ted Kennedy's seat came up for grabs, and Scott Brown won and promised to vote against Obamacare. Once again, there was hope. However, Congress bypassed Brown and stayed with the bill that was passed, rather than allowing a chance at a Republican filibuster in reconciliation. Then, it looked likely that the SCOTUS would strike down Obamacare, but the Roberts betrayal dashed that hope as well.
A few days ago, it looked like we were possibly cruising to a 4-point victory. Now it's tied. I feel like this is the last movement of Mahler's 6th symphony, in which a hero strives against great odds; and every time victory seems in sight, he is knocked down by a "hammer-blow of fate". At the end, after several such near victories and hammer-blows, when there are almost no signs of life, a great terrifying chord crashes down, stamping out the hero entirely. Sorry to join the ranks of the concern trolls, but I cannot help but feel that this election is deja vu. Many of the people reassuring us about poll internals were doing the same thing in 2008.
Just think if we lose this and plunge America into the abyss, we will have Chris Christie to thank and he achieved nothing for NJ and that is reality.
He has been doing it ever since that pathetic keynote address at the convention. Romney has wisely seen the self-promoting lard-ass for the liability that he is. Christy is a morbidly obese version of John McCain--only he is even more of a backbiter and lacks McCain's honorable service record. And he could not win an election for dog-catcher any point south or west of Atlantic City.
I am putting my faith in the internals, and the Republican wave that must be building.
Yup, Romney is not an elected official. John Boehner's the one to be talking to about Libya.
That’s according to Josh Jordan (number’s muncher on twitter).
“So a storm comes to punish these decadent libtards and what do we get? 4 more years of godless marxism”
I predicted the storm would rescue Obama and that is exactly what has happened. I was roundly criticized by most people on this board. A blind man could see this coming. Get ready for Rasmussen to have the communist ahead (and also Gallup) by Monday. This is what a drooling, slobbering media can do for a politician. Obummer has singlehandedly rescued hundreds from the storm. All hail the next president.
All nonsense.
What is happening now, as in all past elections, is that the pollsters are covering their bets so as to maintain credibility no matter what the outcome.
They are looking out for their business for the next elections.
Does anyone really think that in the last few days 6 million plus people are changing their minds every day? Impossible.
Now, no matter which way the elections go, these pollsters like Rasmussen, Gallup, etc., can say “well, we were within the margin of error”.
No matter who wins, the results of this election will not be close. It will be more like a 51-48% split with a 291- 247 electoral college split.
Ping me on Wednesday about my brillian prophecy.
“we will have Chris Christie to thank and he achieved nothing for NJ and that is reality”
You mean the powermad Judas Christie? He’s a worthess, sorry SOB for parading around with the communist. THAT WAS THE STORY on the major media outlets. Obama’s new found friend Judas Christie.
I COULD NOT AGREE MORE!! I have gone hard with Dems I know and they are going to feel what they want to feel. Even after they concede all my points it’s then the childish 1.) Obama just needs more time — where do you go from there as it’s an open ended argument as well as the 2.) “things” were so messed up from Bush.
They will believe what they want to believe. Every one I know who would support Republicans has either early voted or will vote for sure on Tuesday. Every one I know knows my political leanings so if they are so inclined I’ll push them over the finish line (one co-worker yesterday saw my Romney sticker and asked how to vote straight ticket Republican).
I’ve volunteered all year long for Ted Cruz (yes I’m in Texas) and now one of my local Congressmen in a close race. I’ve done and will do all I can through election day that I can including taking a day off from work Election Day.
Look at NY and the Katrina like response of the fed gov and they’ll still vote straight ticket Democrat. If people are this susceptible to propaganda and manipulation then there was never any chance to begin with because we know the Dems and rat media will do so.
I will sleep well (though admittedly a little less well if Obama/Dems win) knowing I’ve done all I can and leaving it to God’s will.
Exactly! Black Americans have photo IDs just as White Americans do. And if they do not, they can easily get them. The dems talk about the black Americans as if they just got released as slaves and know absolutely nothing.
It really has nothing to do with black Americans.
Their real problem with voter ID are:
1) There's no real documented proof that the person that voted 17 times for a democrat will be charged. There's no ID and the person (most likely a democrat) handing out the ballots will not be able to remember the face by the time the fraud is picked up (if it ever is picked up).
2) No ID makes it easy for ANY person to vote - immigrant or illegal.
These numbers can also be accounted for by Rasmussen now polling in the last week 1000 per day instead of 500 per day. A smaller MOE means that the result is much more likely to be right on the money. Assuming a 1% MOE with 3000 total respondents (I didn’t check), 48.4 ranges from 49.4 to 47.4 and 47.6 ranges from 48.6 to 46.6.
In that entire range from 49.4 down to 46.6, Romney is the clear winner in 40% of his range whereas Obama is a clear loser in 55% of his range, and there is no place in his range that Obama is a clear winner and no place when Romney is not a clear winner that he couldn’t also be tied with Obama, given that Obama is under 50%.
Oops!!
PS though I really think (reference my other posts) that Romney is ahead and will win.
Remember if the Dem’s ahead it’s a commanding lead, if the GOP is ahead it’s “tight”.
Yep, polls are all wrong, exactly like they were in ‘08. I was listening to Vice President Palin discussing this just the other day.
He’s not doing it...surrogates McCain and Lindsey Graham are doing it
not sure how effective that is
Have faith FRiend.
I remember 4 years ago like it was yesterday.
There are very fundamental differences today.
The rock star- hip- trendy- cool- unifier- etc etc etc Obama is gone and so are his crowds.
The country is broke and the people who want him gone are very motivated.
Plus we have actual numbers (not internals) from early voting that back up what I’m saying.
We have a state run media and the pollsters are either propaganda outfits or at best there are very real limits on what they can accurately measure.
This year is particularly tough for many reasons.
The newest is the fear of being targeted by the injustice department (ask Gallop about that).
We will win this one.
If we don’t then the revolution will come before my kids are old enough to fight in it.
If not then they will stand by me when it all comes crashing down.
The Lord Jesus is all powerful and fully in control.
He may give us mercy or he may give this nation what it deserves.
It’s up to Him.
But I will trust in Him regardless.
Any trust or hope in government is folly.
IF OBAMA is re-elected...there is NEVER be another republican president. Obama cut his teeth with the vote fraud machine ACORN...his CZARS and advisors are ALL far left power hungry radicals....
His top advisor, and MAO worshipper, Valerie Jarret just said, that after this election those who are not with them are against them and there will be hell to pay...she said they will NOT be slowed by Congress.
Obama will make SURE that NO STATE is able to enforce voter ID...he will LEGALIZE all illegals and grant them the right to vote...he will give voting rights to felons..he will appoint MORE of his anti-Constitutional radicals to the Supreme Court to assure he gets his way..ANYONE who REALLY thinks that these power hungry socialists are going to not put in place a firewall that cannot be breached that will assure democrat / socialists power is DEAD WRONG....this is the LAST election if Obama wins.
So according to Josh Jordan, Rass is using a Dem +4 model. Gallop and Pew maybe closer to the reality of the situation, but Gallop is so variable in their surveys.
I guess it comes down to Pew and Rass, though I see NPR is in the same league as Rass with a +4 Dem advantage.
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/332170/turnout-game-josh-jordan
If Obama wins, we are finished. I will contribute to the lack of revenue coming in.
There is a thread on FR somewhere about what to do if Obama wins that may be appropriate soon. Hurricane/post tropical storm Sandy has been a gift from the devil for Obama. Romney's momentum has been stopped and Obama is on the rise. Dependent America is about to vote and if they are a majority, America will pass into the history books.
He’s not going to do it and he better if he wants to be elected!
I wouldn’t be calling someone a troll that’s been here since 2002. Seeing you’ve been here a little over a month maybe you might be the troll.
I pray we’re not right! But something in my gut tells me we might be. Remember the convenient economic collapse in the closing days of the 08 campaign. Satan is the Prince of the Power of the Air. And anybody with the moral discrimination of a gnat knows that we are in for severe coming judgements. Obama and the godless democrats are only the tool to bring God’s ultimate judgement against a headstrong and adulterous land!
Enough with the ‘Satan is behind this’ conspiracies. I can never understand how on one side people can say the Devil is working to get Obama elected, and yet somehow expect us to believe that during the same time, God is abandoning Romney. If Obama wins it isn’t Satan or God, it is our fault. If Romney wins, it will be because of us. Any other argument makes you look like toothless unwashed idiots out of a News @ 9 post tornado interview. Enough already..
Look at the crowd size everyone. Someone just posted only 2500 came out to see Obama speak in Columbus, OH
Who said they were wrong? I think they are probably mostly correct, within the margin of error.
Yup. America's epitaph will read "You Didn't Build That".
I agree. I was saying sandy could turn out to be O’s perfect storm. I hope I’m wrong.
sandy bounce....many people are fools...that’s why most were not prepared for the storm in the first place....gonna be a long Tuesday...or another gore v. bush...
Romney needs to pull out all the stops. Get some ads going NOW about Obama denying rescue efforts and lying about what was to blame. Make it so that the networks have to bring it up. Pull no punches. Forget Mr. Nice Guy. Also ads pointing out that the UE rate went up again.
“Look at the crowd size everyone. Someone just posted only 2500 came out to see Obama speak in Columbus, OH”
This the point that pollsters have a hard time getting their hands around, and that is voter enthusiasm. People can tell a pollster they will vote for Obama, but will they. What is the enthusiasm of the fringe Obama voter?
We will have to wait until Tuesday, but 2800 in Ohio 4 days before an election tells me a lot.
He is
“When he took office 32 million were on food stamps, today it is 47 million. If Obama is reelected, it means the country has already reached a tipping point demographically and the Dems will be the permanent majority party. And the country is finished. I hope we have not reached that point yet. We will see in four days.”
I believe you are right.
I’ve been on record since early this year, warning that this will be a close election in both the popular vote and in the electoral college.
Indeed, we may be facing a “2000 situation” again — where Romney might actually -lose- the popular vote, but eek out a victory in EC.
I’ve always paid close attention to your postings on immigration and demographics, and I don’t post much, but tend towards the same subjects myself.
Have you ever seen the film by Arthur Penn with Dustin Hoffman and Chief Dan George entitled “Little Big Man”? In that film, after the battle of Little Big Horn, Jack Crabb (Hoffman) is rescued from the massacre and brought before Old Lodge Skins (Dan George). Crabb says to the Chief something to the effect of “you won”, but the Chief remains somber. He then says, “we won today — but we won’t win tomorrow”. And then explains that no matter what can be said about the white man, “there are just too many of them”. He knew that in time, the Cheyenne would be forever outnumbered. Demographics.
It’s unpopular to express an opinion as such, but I sense that conservatives face a similar future in America — at least the America that exists today, and the America that seems to be headed in the direction that it’s going.
Thus, the ever-increasing number of people on food stamps.
Thus, “the 47%” — that will soon be 48%, and then 49%, and....... then.....?
That doesn’t mean I’m giving up — I’ll go to the polls on November 6 and do what I have to do. As I hope everyone reading this will do as well.
Conservatism to me is about “reality”. About [first] being wise enough to see reality for what it is, and [secondly] being able to understand how to go forth based on (and often in spite of) what we have learned reality to actually be.
But all too often, folks on the conservative side seem to eschew reality as readily as do the ‘rats on the left.
Thus, in months past, we saw exhortations to wit:
“The dog catcher could be Obama!”
“The DOG could beat Obama”
“A ham sandwich could beat Obama!”
I’ve asked this before, I’ll ask again: what happened?
But like you, I already understand:
Demographics.
I’ll gladly eat these words if Mr. Romney enjoys a big victory next Tuesday.
But until that happens, this is the way I see it...
I will go Gault. Move to AK.
depressing article.
Un- believable how happy the dems are with such economic catastrophe.
Obama’s continued support is concrete proof that dems are lazy and don’t want to ever work.
If Obama wins , the US is done , forever beyond repair.
The main discussion on FR will become
bolt or revolt
bolt or revolt
I'm hopeful there will be a "win some, lose some" discussion for the more sane among us. Politics is like baseball -- there's always a next year.
Ras is bringing his national polling more in line with the state polling, which has never really changed much -- Romney's never been able to move up much in the states that count. Oh well, live by the electoral college, die by the electoral college.
So much gloom and doom. The race is close. Romney may win ( I hope ) or Obama may win. Either way life will go on and so will the fight for the freedom endowed by our creator. There is always hope... otherwise you are without faith. What ever happens is allowed to happen.
By the way.... Just my opinion but I don’t believe that Sandy is really going to help Obama come election day. Look at the news coming out of New Jersey. Long lines for gas no power and cold weather coming in. Perhaps a 2 point bounce from palling around with Christie. Gone by Monday... people are fickle and are un/underemployed.
What does it say that Obama is spending part of his final days in states he won handily in 08 and Romney and Ryan are going to supposedly safe blue states
I looked at the elections for the past 60 years that were essentially a two-party race. I came up with this graph, which shows how the democrat candidate's popular vote translated to electoral votes:
Lets take these polls at face value.
48% of America wants socialism.
And it all boils down to turnout.
If the Romney supporters turn out like crazy on Tuesday, they win.
If the hussein supporters turn out and commit enough fraud, they win.
Given that it is so close, I think turnout favors the challenger. However, it’s gonna be close.
My prediction: Romney wins the entire south plus NH, and this ends up being decided in the midwest. And the electoral map looks remarkably like that of the U.S./C.S.A. in 1862.
Our party actually has a spine on this issue and the laws have been getting passed. Hasn't stopped the lefty courts from blocking, delaying and overturning them though. Where we need to get a spine is on the courts, following something like the document on how to block the courts that Newt produced last year during the primary.
“There will be no conservative wave in’16. Romney loses and it’s over because a majority will be created by the Demos that will last a long long time.”
You’re right. But not necessarily for electoral reasons. I think the electoral map will look an awful lot like the US/CSA map circa 1862. It wouldn’t be long after a hussein victory that some states will reconsider whether they wish to continue with the current arrangement. And therein lies one path to long term leftist victory. They can do the electoral math minus say a state like TX, or AZ, or LA or AL.
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