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Is Trump really losing? In this anti-establishment year, outlier polls could speak loudly
The Oregonian ^ | October 24, 2016 | Douglas Perry

Posted on 10/24/2016 8:24:04 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

"We are behind," Donald Trump's campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, said Sunday on "Meet the Press."

But are they really? Many of Trump's most ardent supporters refuse to believe the polling trend. And it is at least possible they're onto something.

Data expert Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com puts Hillary Clinton's chances of winning the presidential election at 86.2 percent. The New York Times is even more bullish, insisting the Democratic nominee has a 92 percent chance of coming out on top.

But while most polls do put Clinton comfortably out front -- some by double digits since a rash of sexual-assault accusations against Trump -- a few still show the Republican nominee leading. These are the ones Trump's fans are clinging to. Maybe, they hope, these outlier polls are in fact the true polls.

The Rasmussen and Investors' Business Daily polls are the two key surveys that continue to show Trump with the edge....

(Excerpt) Read more at oregonlive.com ...


TOPICS: Campaign News; Polls
KEYWORDS: hillary; polls; trump
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

the SCM reports hardly anything about Trump but I knew they would jump on this ...good job ms campaign person....good job.


21 posted on 10/24/2016 9:11:12 PM PDT by cherry
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

If TRUMP loses no matter how, the Republic is finished.
Open borders, left stacked Supreme court, mass invasion by Islam and Sharia law is supreme. Patriots become the enemy of “the state”.

I see no other option but asymmetrical civil warfare UNLESS we have the numbers to win it.Or we become like east Berlin during the cold war and just live in tyranny.


22 posted on 10/24/2016 9:11:58 PM PDT by HWGruene (REMEMBER THE ALAMO!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The dems and the MSM, assisted by the RINO Establishment, are trying to get the fix in long before it is.

They figure they will simply announce the victor,,,and then when Trump overwhelms them with numbers, it will be they who point to Russia and say that Russia rigged the election and therefore it cannot be legitimate.

They are trying to get this fix in now so they can run with it if and when Trump’s numbers (which he is drawing to every on of his rallies) show up at the polls and eclispe the dems.


23 posted on 10/24/2016 9:16:07 PM PDT by Jeff Head (Semper Fidelis - Molon Labe - Sic Semper Tyrannis)
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To: grey_whiskers

Where the polls may be missing is there are a whole lot more indies out there in 2016 than in 2012. Add to that there are a whole lot of non-voting individuals who are voting in this election. I can’t honestly say Trump is sure to win, but there seems to be a whole bunch of nuances in this election compared to past. Keeping lots of popcorn handy for Nov 8th.


24 posted on 10/24/2016 9:19:10 PM PDT by entropy12 (TRUMP/PENCE 2016!)
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To: entropy12
And the lack of enthusiasm for Hillary.

Mike Cernovich, or some of the female centipedes, or some of James O'Keefe's female co-workers, should do hidden camera interviews at Hillary rallies and at Dem / Hillary campaign offices, showing how dispirited they are.

Or just go underground and act as concern trolls. God knows there are enough concern trolls attempting to undermine Trump.

25 posted on 10/24/2016 9:25:36 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Big shocking announcement today that voters will care about.

Obamacare premiums are going up 20% next year.


26 posted on 10/24/2016 9:44:55 PM PDT by Jaguarmike
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To: grey_whiskers
"And the lack of enthusiasm for Hillary."

The record numbers of early voters I saw today, (opening day in TX) were not very likely to be for clinton.

27 posted on 10/24/2016 9:55:36 PM PDT by matthew fuller ( Putrefaction is what the Clintons brought to America. The fly is their perfect symbol.)
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To: MHT

I dunno. I sooooo want to accept that as gospel myself, especially after having attended the Cincinnati rally with a reported 20,000+ in ticketed attendance at the Arena. The very next day, Der Slickmeister himself was at an open park, no ticket required rally in the “progressive” neighborhood and he draws about a thousand people according to the Enquirer.

Last election however, Romney/Kid Rock drew darn near 30,000 people in the nearby West Chester and the same weekend, Obama and Stevie Wonder put around 7,000 in the stands.

We all see how that turned out.

I just have to believe its real this time. Like another poster said, you wait in line, go through hassles then get packed in with thousands of people and then have a traffic jam to get through afterwards. And you don’t get off your duff to cast your actual ballot?

I think the best idea so far is the wear red on election day campaign. Let your polling station and media know that we are here and our votes will be counted.

But then they say that the past two elections 0bama won early voting but go on to lose votes cast on actual election day. States with voter ID laws, he lost. States with no ID, he wins. Notice a pattern.

Last election I knew we were in trouble the sunday evening before the election. Some friends and I had attended a Bengals game earlier that day and continued the celebration at a downtown restaurant/bar until after 7pm. We left the place and a block away I see this long ass line of people, there had to be 200+ standing in line. We go a little closer and it looks like the unemployment office line, I say what the heck is going on here? A friend says that is the Board of Elections office, that’s early voting right there. What? At 7pm on a Sunday this motley crew shows up to vote? He said yeah, I work down here, early voting has been going on for over a week, this line is here every night.

I knew it was over. Went home and told the family to brace ourselves for another 4 years.


28 posted on 10/24/2016 10:07:26 PM PDT by Finatic (Sometimes I think it would be nice to just get it on and get it over with. Once and for all.)
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To: Jaguarmike

They won’t get it until the first bill arrives, which is after the election.


29 posted on 10/24/2016 10:14:24 PM PDT by MHT (,`)
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To: Finatic

Romney wasn’t drawing massive crowds throughout his campaign. That’s the difference between him and Trump.

I don’t remember Romney supporters (or McCain supporters) showing as much enthusiasm for their candidates as Trump gets.


30 posted on 10/24/2016 10:15:21 PM PDT by Jaguarmike
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

If Hitlery wins, then it will be absolutely because of voter fraud because you are never going to convince me in a million years that a guy who brings in 20 to 30,000 people in a stadium at his rallies can lose to a woman who brings in 2,000 if that.


31 posted on 10/24/2016 10:17:05 PM PDT by GrandJediMasterYoda (Hillary Clinton IS a felon.)
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To: Finatic

My husband and I voted on the first day possible in Missouri. Long before the second debate. I don’t worry abut the voters in line as much as the ballots mailed in. My son and his wife voted last week in NC. Prudent voters are getting it over before the crowds hit. I have prayed for this moment for four years and it has really tested my faith. I can only hope against hope that there is a fervent number of new voters out there who want to save America as they know it. Otherwise, we’re toast.


32 posted on 10/24/2016 10:19:59 PM PDT by MHT (,`)
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To: HWGruene

Trump is going to win.

We are living through a historic period, the end of the globalist movement.

Some other significant casualties are the Press as a credible institution and the free pass to corruption of the federal bureaucracy.


33 posted on 10/24/2016 10:33:46 PM PDT by Disestablishmentarian
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To: Disestablishmentarian

Please, let what you said come true!


34 posted on 10/24/2016 10:53:31 PM PDT by W. (I've been called a gentleman by the ladies. A heartwarming compliment...)
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To: entropy12

Popcorn?

More like Zantac and Valium.


35 posted on 10/25/2016 1:03:34 AM PDT by Salamander (More deplorable than deplorable...)
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To: Jaguarmike

I didn’t even bother getting a bumper sticker for either of them.

I voted with a sense of grim resignation.

It was like a dirty job I had to do, so I did it.

I did not care for McCain and I detested Romney.

This is not like that, *at all*.

I *never* had complete strangers run up to me and breathlessly ask “You voting for McCain/Romney?!?”

Happens all the time, with Trump.

Saw the wildest thing tonight, near the Best Buy strip mall.

A huge jacked-up 4WD Dodge truck flying the biggest Trump flag I’ve ever seen, affixed to a pole in the bed.

It was awesome.

I don’t know where people are getting their Trump flags but those things are *everywhere*, here.


36 posted on 10/25/2016 1:13:12 AM PDT by Salamander (More deplorable than deplorable...)
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To: Talisker
This seems taken out of context, or at least denied any conext to misrepresent it. Anyone have the full quote?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPxsdXh4aUA

37 posted on 10/25/2016 1:24:41 AM PDT by cynwoody
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To: bigbob

“The polls are made up. Nobody knows how things will turn out.”

Ding! Ding! Ding! Ding! We have a winner! bigbob got it right!

Yes, the polls are pure propaganda. I’ve never understood people getting worried over polls, especially this election when voter enthusiasm for Trump is just out of the world and for Hitlery is practically non-existent. The differences are so extreme it’s laughable.

Like one guy on Rush said yesterday, that a Trump event is an all day affair. The hundred mile drive, the 3 hour wait in line, the event itself. With everyone there being so excited. Anyone going through all of this will certainly vote.

And there is an upside to these false polls, which is the libs that think Hitlery will win by a landslide probably will not vote at all. I mean, why should they leave their TV set, or tablet, or drugs, and go out and vote if they’ve already won?


38 posted on 10/25/2016 1:40:05 AM PDT by redfreedom
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To: bigbob

They are polling likely voters, which leaves out many deplorables who didn’t always vote in the past but will be decisive for Trump. Don’t believe these likely voter polls.


39 posted on 10/25/2016 2:37:35 AM PDT by Lisbon1940 (Trump-Pence 2016: No full-term Governors!)
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To: HokieMom

A little drive through the old-money cottages of Mount Gretna, Pennsylvania, will show you where the inventory of Hillary signs is kept.


40 posted on 10/25/2016 2:54:56 AM PDT by LoveUSA (God employs Man's strength; Satan exploits Man's weakness.)
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