Posted on 10/06/2016 7:33:10 AM PDT by LS
PPD/Emerson has Trump +1 in FL . . . but talk about screwy! He is at 18% with blacks and 35% with Hispanics! Sorry, unless you are polling lesbian academics, this is at minimum a 5-point poll and game over.
They also have a tie in NV (Team Trump is confident they are up in NV).
Emerson has Cankles leading AZ, even though Trump is getting 40% of the Hispanics there? Not a chance in hell. Trump will win AZ comfortably 7-10 points.
Interesting info out of Montgomery Co. OH: in 2012 absentees looked like this: R 7,400 D 3,179 I 25,007 . . . except these weren't really "Is." They were Ds who, according to OH law, were thrown back into the "I" bin because they did not vote in the uncontested D primary.
A friend, with intimate knowledge of OH voting records by household (i.e., whether an address voted D or R) and precinct level understanding (i.e., the likelihood that a voter in x precinct would be a D or R) "normalized" the numbers.
2012 "normalized" looks like this: D 15,144 R 13,021 I 7,443
here is 2016 without normalization as mailed out by the board of elections D 8,523 R 14,357 I 20,351
Here it is normalized according to voting history of the address: D 15,642 (36%) R 19,685 (45%) I 7,904 (18%)
What makes this especially interesting is that these are almost the SAME percentages I'm seeing with absentees in FL: 43-37-21
No, I don’t care what ethnicity or background you are, Trump crushing it with men. Even is not even a remote possibility.
http://donsurber.blogspot.com/2016/10/upi-trump-would-win-today.html
No, what’s the deal there?
If you ignore polls and look at VOTING-—absentee requests, early voting vs. 2012-—you’ll see that so far this election isn’t close. Trump is crushing it, whether in IA where Ds are 40,000 absentees below 2012 (but right in line with their 8% loss in 2014), in FL where they are down 118,000 absentees and losing 43-36% in requests and much worse in actual returns; in Montgomery CO., OH, where they are significantly down in absentee requests compared to 2012 even after identifying which independents are really stealth Democrats.
In Cuyahoga County, OH, D losses and R gains (again, not even factoring in Is) are 97,000 off 2012-—A Dem simply cannot win OH after losing 1/3 of the voters in the most blue city in the state.
So, no, the polling is bad. It’s bad because the pollsters are using bad samples . . . deliberately.
According to Team Trump, they agree. But it might not be close. I have them as 272, but I don’t give Trump MI, PA, or VA. In fact, he might carry all three for another 50+ electoral votes.
If he is getting 18% black and 35% hispanic, and they are claiming he’s only up 1 then this poll must have had the rest filled with elderly bitter lesbians or something.
With those sorts of numbers Trump has FL locked if they are accurate.
Thank you.
Something’s not right with these polls.
I.e., Trump at 20% with Blacks and 42% with Hispanics but 2 points up or 49% with women but losing by one.
Or down in battleground states but up nationally or up in Pennsylvania and Ohio, but down in Florida and up single digits in Texas.
These conflicting patterns just don’t make sense.
Trump should get PA, MI, IN, WI and MI.
VA is the only state in the south Hillary has any shot at getting. If she can’t hold VA, with NOVA voters motivated to show up, if only for their own personal pocket book reasons to vote for her, she is going to LOSE a lot of other states no one wants to think about.
Seriously if she can’t get voters out in droves to vote for her in VA, (NOVA Specifically) where the people clearly have a personal motivation to keep the status quo if only for their own pocket book reasons, she won’t get turnout ANYWHERE.
And up 4 in Pennsylvania in the same poll.
Let’s hope these are both true!!
Ohio is in the bag for Trump, anyone telling you its in play is just flat out lying to you.... They have shipped off Bill there on a bus to keep him out of the way since they figured out what he was selling no one was any longer interested in buying.
He’s sort of like Bob Dole in Oct of 96, he knows he’s lost, but getting one last hurrah before the end.
I actually sent Laura an e-mail during the show this morning. I mentioned that she seems to be a little more pessimistic and down this week still partly due his last debate. Not sure why unless she knows something we don’t (hopefully not).
I suggested to her IMHO that she should also publicize these polls showing Trump in good shape and/or leading. I understand she needs to cover all sides but it seems she’s just showing the bad lately (though I know her case it’s with good intentions).
“in FL where they are down 118,000 absentees and losing 43-36% in requests and much worse in actual returns;”
Why do I see some obvious Hillary supporters stating that these republican absentee ballot requests are more than the final 79,000 republican margin in 2012 but that the actual 118,000 spread is actually behind what the pace of what the spread wa
I believe they are gaslighting because there are no source citations but still just checking.
sorry something happened upon the message posting
should’ve said
***what the spread was in 2012 up to today’s date...
That’s because when a real man hears the sound of Hillary’s voice it’s like hearing nails on a chalk board. She reminds them of a mother in law, ex-wife or ex-girlfriend.
I guess if people knew what she will do, she'll be polling at 15%...
No, the totals are astounding. 1.088 MILLION Rs have requested ballots and 1/4 of all Republicans ALREADY have asked for ballots. I don’t recall the previous 2012 numbers but I’m pretty sure Rs are NOT behind pace.
That would be wonderful.
Well, let's all just keep praying about the election--every day, if possible. Only God knows the future, and how to work everything out to achieve His purposes.
what is the nursing home population? homeless? that is the fraud factor.
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