Emerson FL poll, odds & ends

People's Pundit Daily ^ | 10/6/2016 | LS

[LS]

PPD/Emerson has Trump +1 in FL . . . but talk about screwy! He is at 18% with blacks and 35% with Hispanics! Sorry, unless you are polling lesbian academics, this is at minimum a 5-point poll and game over.

They also have a tie in NV (Team Trump is confident they are up in NV).

Emerson has Cankles leading AZ, even though Trump is getting 40% of the Hispanics there? Not a chance in hell. Trump will win AZ comfortably 7-10 points.

Interesting info out of Montgomery Co. OH: in 2012 absentees looked like this: R 7,400 D 3,179 I 25,007 . . . except these weren't really "Is." They were Ds who, according to OH law, were thrown back into the "I" bin because they did not vote in the uncontested D primary.

A friend, with intimate knowledge of OH voting records by household (i.e., whether an address voted D or R) and precinct level understanding (i.e., the likelihood that a voter in x precinct would be a D or R) "normalized" the numbers.

2012 "normalized" looks like this: D 15,144 R 13,021 I 7,443

here is 2016 without normalization as mailed out by the board of elections D 8,523 R 14,357 I 20,351

Here it is normalized according to voting history of the address: D 15,642 (36%) R 19,685 (45%) I 7,904 (18%)

What makes this especially interesting is that these are almost the SAME percentages I'm seeing with absentees in FL: 43-37-21

[eekitsagreek]

If he is doing that well with blacks and hispanics there is no way the race is that close. Something does not make sense.

[Democrat_media]

Stop communist Hillary Clinton our would be slaver.

The politicians and communists/democrats already destroyed America which was the greatest civilization ever with the highest living standards in history .Now China has far surpassed the USA as China makes everything.

Only Trump can bring America back to its greatness and defeat China , Soros and the communists!

stop Communist hillary our would be slaver

[Helicondelta]

Just watch where they are campaigning and you'll know where the race is close: Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia..

[Williams]

Trump tweeted he is up 5 in a UPI poll for Virginia.

[Kenny]

Why is Laura & Tucker Carlson talking about how low he is in polls?

[Zathras]

“Emerson has Cankles leading AZ”
Sounds like nonsense to me.

[LS]

They have him even with men.

Seriously? Trump wins men by 20+ points.

Ridiculous.

BTW, same Emerson poll on NV has Trump with 21% Hispanics there, while 40% in AZ? Ummm, no.

[LS]

Except Trump is running a national campaign. WI, MI, PA, NH, AZ, CO, NV, FL, NC, IA-—he’s everywhere. So that’s not necessarily a tell.

I do think I’ve figured out a key element of Trump’s strategy-—and Team Trump hasn’t commented on this to me:

These rallies bypass the national news outlets by getting (in the words of a Team Trump highly placed insider “huge”) local advertising and news coverage. Local stations have to cover it. It’s millions of dollars in free ads. So it’s NOT just the # of people at the rallies, but also the massive local unfiltered coverage (local stations have far less editorial crap).

[LS]

That’s Reuters. I don’t think Team Trump believes that, but they do think they are up.

[LS]

Better question is, why are you watching them?

[LS]

It’s nonsense. Trump will win AZ by 7-10 points, like Republicans always do.

[MHT]

Any word on Vigo County, IN?

[bigbob]

All polls are rigged.

[Kenny]

I don’t “watch” polls, only read Free Republic. As far as Laura’s show, this is new. She’s not been one to talk polls.

[Democrat_media]

Trump needs to put more ads in Florida

[ThinkingBuddha]

They have him even with men. Seriously? Trump wins men by 20+ points. Ridiculous.

Trump wins traditional men. Libtards include bull dyke wannabe men as men.

[Dr. Sivana]

Sorry, unless you are polling lesbian academics, this is at minimum a 5-point poll and game over.

Republican-leaning Jews retiring in Florida may not cotton to Trump. Breakdown would be interesting.

[Kate in Palo Alto]

Total nonsense that Cankles leading in AZ. I don’t know where they get that garbage.

Just to mention . . . nobody on Team Cankles has set foot in AZ in quite a while. THEY don’t think it’s in play.

[MMaschin]

You seem to be very well informed about polling, so I have a question for you.

I keep looking at different polls, and the numbers just don't square in my head. I look at the results of the UPI-CVoter state polls, and they seem to show what I expect to see (and not just because it's what I want to see), but I can't see the internals.

I've expected to see, and there's tons of ancillary information saying it's there, lots of blue collar Democrat voters, coming over to Trump. But the demographics of most polls don't seem to show them.

I'm starting to wonder, and hope, that these polls are dropping the 'monster vote' for Trump, when they are determining their likely voters. Are they dropping everyone who reports not voting in the last Presidential election, from 'likely voters'?

If that's the case, in my mind, that would explain, 1) Hillary's gain as the samples move toward 'likely voters', 2) The drastic differences in poll data, and 3) why Trump is doing so much better in the online polls.

Thanks!