Posted on 07/29/2016 10:13:27 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
JULY 29: A new election poll released this morning (conducted on July 28) by the USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election Poll shows that Donald Trump has 46.7% of the total popular vote, while Hillary Clinton lags behind with 40.6% of the popular vote. 2,188 people were surveyed.
This is a very surprising result, considering that the Democratic National Convention usually gives the Democratic candidate a large boost in the polls. It did not seem to be the case this year for Hillary Clinton....
(Excerpt) Read more at regated.com ...
Correct. But not well understood so keep posting this info. I expect this poll to be the most valuable of the daily polls going forward because it his hard to fudge. They have picked the 3000 participants and so we have a fixed distribution of D's, R's and I's.
If you read the posts on this thread you will realize that 99% of the Freepers do not understand the USC polling methodology. We have at least a week to go before we can fully assess the results of the USC moving average poll.
But the trend in that poll will be meaningful and should be watched carefully. Today it turned up a bit for Hillary for the first time in a week or so. It is very likely to continue to do so for a few days. If it doesn't then we can celebrate. At this point we can't. Not yet.
Look I am as pessimistic as they come but I don’t think that battleground review is the correct picture. Basically all the OH polls have been tied in RCP so why give it to Hillary with no toss-ups? PA’s last two have been suspect. Suffolk’s methodology for Hillary’s was shocking as I found out on this site that the poll would ask for the youngest voter in the household. Trump led in the last poll in JUNE in AZ. Trump was down just 3 in MI before the RNC convention. Trump was up by 1 and before that 3 in IA again before the convention. All of these from the same RCP source.
Also add in Axiom Strategies’ Battleground County polls which Trump is strongly ahead in all but one county (again all of these before the RNC).
http://axiomstrategies.com/abc/
So not sure why all those battlegrounds are put in the Hillary column in the no toss ups map.
Now don’t get me wrong we’ve since had the DNC convention and there are now over three months until the election and a lot can and probably will happen but just don’t understand why the assumption would be to put those (and other states) states so assuredly in Hillary’s column.
Its over.
Hillary is getting only 40% of the vote and that’s her ceiling.
Yup - Trump is not over 50% yet but will be.
Have no idea either just reporting what is available. Have no idea why so many people believed DJT will win with no ground game, against a long prepared foe which has no problem cheating on a massive scale - hope, I suppose ...
“Stats from RCP:”
I wouldn’t focus too much on RCP average; they go back too far on polls to make an average. They are also leaving out some very credible polling. New Hampshire is a great example...they simple left out the last poll (Solid state polling organization) that has Trump up by 9 points.
You’re just not getting a complete picture of the race.
My sister tried to have her late husband buried in Chicago so that he would vote eternally!
Too soon for that particular poll to take in a convention bounce. If memory serves it is a 7 day rolling average poll. Next Friday’s poll will be interesting.
She probably gave orders to skew the results to show her ahead. I don’t think she takes it lightly that she is behind or on election day giving her concession speech. She’ll probably want a recount.
Factually incorrect.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html
Don’t bother with PIF, they is talking out his butt.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html
CLINTON/KANE 202 TRUMP/PENSE 154
So I’m not factually incorrect - your link. AND FACTUALY CORRECT
Anything that in the very slightest which suggest DJT is not winning seems to be cause to assert the opposite.
I think Trump’s numbers are actually much better than we’re hearing. I don’t remember it until recent elections, but nowadays many people are actually *afraid* to say that they support a conservative candidate, much less one like Trump.
We’re living in bizarre times.
-JT
Usually pollsters will ask if the voted in the last election, which ups the odds that they will vote in the next one.
If you believe polls, wait a week to see what this one says — that will give time for any DNC bounce to materialize. But it will probably take until Aug. 15 or 20 for both bounces to wear off and for us to know where the race stands, if you believe polls.
Would not be surprised if his legal team is going to talk to all the Sec. of States in regards to having the need for clean voting records. Plus organizations steppiing up to the plate bigtime to help.
According to the geniuses at CNN, it will take a week or so for evidence of a pro-Hillary bounce to appear.
The big issue is going to be VOTER FRAUD.
People have said the USA is not going in the right direction.
Somebody - I think Krauthammer - was talking about this poll the other day - said to view it with some caution - apparently they have the same pool of 30,000 people which they draw randomly from over and over for their results - usually not advisable to repeat sample for something like this since decisions on a candidate once made are likely not to change - might be better to take independent samples which should reflect changes in voter sentiment over time more accurately.....
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