Posted on 02/06/2020 5:59:13 PM PST by blam
It all depends on successfully containing it in China.
If it breaks loose in the U.S. it will quickly overwhelm the medical system and the society. And the U.S. is unable to exert the control that a totalitarian society like China can to stop it.
The bigger danger is is the disease now lurking somewhere like Africa or other parts of the world and will it come in totally without us being aware.
The NUMBER of flu deaths is very different from the RATE of flu deaths. And the government knows that, but insists on obfuscation.
Roughly 22,500,000 people caught the flu last year and the number of deaths was 10,000.
The death rate from the flu is 10,000 / 22,500,000, or 4.4 deaths per 10,000 infected: .04%.
The reported death rate of the Coronavirus is 2.5%, meaning that if the same number of people catch the more highly contagious Coronavirus, the number of deaths will be: 22,500,000 x .026 = 585,000.
Most people will recognize that 585,000 is significantly higher than 10,000.
And that is exactly why your servants of the people are not telling you about it.
The flu attacks the upper respiratory system (nose and throat) and we have a vaccine for it. The Novel Coronavirus attacks the lower respiratory system (lungs) with viral pneumonia. That makes it about 10 times more deadly - but there are still too many unknowns to know how bad it will get.
“Anyone ever seen China react to a virus like the way they are now? And since when has China told us the truth about a damned thing?”
And when has China ever given a crap about saving people? Population control has been their thing for a long time.
You are comparing apples and oranges !
More than week old numbers, and inaccurate numbers at that. The CDC has strict criteria for what is recorded as a flu related death, and out of the 8 flu deaths in my county that I know of, none of them were recorded by the sheriff (also our coroner) as being flu related.
There are also indications it causes violent convulsions and death. Whether that is because it attacks the brain, or when people can no longer breathe they go into convulsions, I don’t think anyone knows
Someone forgot to do the math...
In the USA, influenza kills approximately 0.2% of the people who catch it.
In China, the corona virus is killing 2.0% of the people who catch it.
In other words - the corona virus is killing TEN TIMES more infected people in China than influenza kills infected people in the USA.
HILLARY Has killed more people than the corona virus so far
“3) Still, the human mind is ill-suited to handle statistics.”
Amen - see this earlier posting by me. Really, has anyone bothered to apply some 6th Grade math:
https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3814244/posts?page=169#169
I guess this means a virus with a 2% death rate that very few have been exposed to is no threat to anyone.
Even though its R naught is over 2. And nobody has shown an ability to even slow it down. Even with draconian measures.
Yeah, no worries.
“And the U.S. is unable to exert the control that a totalitarian society like China can to stop it.”
I wouldn’t wager too much on what our government is incapable of doing, should things get as bad here as in China. The government has boatloads of emergency powers, but at state and federal levels. It would not surprise me if we got to the point of having people shot on sight for stepping off of their property - if it’s that bad.
And the thing...those steps will be needed.
“Most people will recognize that 585,000 is significantly higher than 10,000.”
I also read the coronavirus is easier to catch than the common flu.
Exactly right. china is lying. Reports we have seen say 154,000 infected, 28,600 dead. That is still too low as a lot of deaths are listed as other causes due to government mandates. Growing 10% a day.
If not serious why would they quarantine so many cities and shut down all travel?
If 25% are in intensive care there must be a lot of ICU units in china.
VA, CDC Closely Monitoring Coronavirus Outbreak
VA is working closely with The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and other federal partners, monitoring an outbreak of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV).
VA has activated its emergency management coordination cell (EMCC) and is implementing an aggressive and collaborative public health response to protect and care for Veterans.
At this time, no Veterans receiving care at VA have been diagnosed with 2019-nCoV. Currently, there is no vaccine to prevent the 2019-nCoV infection and no medication to treat it. CDC believes symptoms appear 2 to 14 days after exposure.
What to do if you have symptoms
If you have both:
•Symptoms of fever, cough, and shortness of breath and
•Have either recently returned from China or have direct
exposure to others diagnosed with 2019-nCoV.
Call before visiting your local VA medical center to seek care. Tell them about your recent travel and your symptoms.
Because the shot is a scam. Theyve gotten it wrong more than once and we wind up losing about the same number of people as when they claimed to have gotten it right.
In the end, it will have a kill rate of 10%-20%. Deaths lag infections. It takes 10-14days between infection and death. Look at the deaths today, verses the infections 10-140days ago. That ratio is between 10%-20%. That is the real story.
Watch out! Some of the folks on here will condemn you for “spreading fear” while they spread ignorance.
I agree that the final tally will be much higher than the current 2%. The key is containment. But China is lost in that regard, there will be a lot of dead.
Quoth Shakespeare, there's the rub.
There are a lot of factors that go into contracting influenza vs coronavirus. For example, there are almost NO precautions we take in the US when it comes to influenza aside from extra hand washing during the flu season. That's why, in part, so many people get the flu.
If Americans adopt precautionary measures for coronavirus like not going to work, then the likelihood comes way down. I suspect the hysteria around this virus will lead to greater personal hygiene etc which will also likely keep down contaigion.
But let's have some fun with numbers: if we accept the PRC numbers (a BIG assumption) then we have 20k+ confirmed cases out of about 35MM quarantined people in cities, or a 0.06% chance of contracting coronavirus.
If we apply that 6 basis point chance to 22.5MM who sought treatment for influenza (which is more comparable to the quarantined lot), you get 13,500 people contracting coronavirus. If we apply a 2.5% fatality rate, we get 338 dead people in America.
That's bad, and as many people are saying (and I'd agree) it is prudent to take precautions and buy extra food and water etc. This is a situation worth monitoring and ignorance isn't helpful.
But 338 dead people is not 585,000 dead people. And I'm willing to wager a $10 donation to the next FReepahon that we won't see 300 or more Americans dead on our soil from coronavirus by May.
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