The Flu Has Killed 10,000 Americans As The World Worries Over Coronavirus

Yahoo News ^ | 2-6-2020 | Rachel Bender

[silverleaf]

Dang, thats turning into a plague ship.
Those poor passengers!

[calenel]

“Source, please?”

He was quoting my post, and my source IS the CCP’s numbers as reported through JHU. These are public numbers that anyone can find, so if you are just looking now, let’s not go all the way back to the beginning and make us re-explain them when you can just read the various posts available right here.

However, those numbers are now a few days old and the mortality rate has dropped under 25%. And, yes, we all know that the Chinese have a history of lying about these things to save face. And the source does not update all the data at the same time, so derived numbers can be less accurate.

The good news is that outside of China it appears we have containment. But things are pretty bad in China, still, and containment can fail or perhaps we haven’t identified all the possible infected. So continue to be vigilant, but there isn’t any need to panic.

[zeestephen]

CCP?

JHU?

I read all your corona virus posts going back three days.

You never give the raw numbers on “resolved” cases. You just keep saying 29% dead.

China started posting the infected and dead numbers four weeks ago. The death toll was 2.5% on their first post. The China death toll has hovered consistently around 2% since that first post.

Even if China is now lying, why are we not seeing this 29% death toll on cruise ships and in other countries?

I think you have misplaced a decimal point, and you are too vain to admit it.

[calenel]

CCP?

Chinese Communist Party

JHU?

John Hopkins University

I read all your corona virus posts going back three days.

Did you think this was the only thread or that only my posts have any data? And this didn't just start three days ago.

You never give the raw numbers on “resolved” cases. You just keep saying 29% dead.

See posts 20, 98, 107, 108 and there is a link to the JHU site here: JHU data from CCP (and already posted elsewhere on this thread), where the raw numbers are now 814 dead and 2922 recovered, for a MORTALITY rate of about 22% (now). Early on it was well over 50% but it has been declining over time.

China started posting the infected and dead numbers four weeks ago. The death toll was 2.5% on their first post. The China death toll has hovered consistently around 2% since that first post.

You are using the wrong number - infected instead of resolved cases - in your calculation. We don't know how those infected will resolve. Maybe they all live, in which case your 2% figure becomes the actual mortality rate, or maybe they all die, in which case the mortality rate is going to be around 97%. Most likely, as the mortality rate appears to be asymptotically approaching something close to 20%, we can expect about 8,000 dead from the currently infected pool.

Even if China is now lying, why are we not seeing this 29% death toll on cruise ships and in other countries?

Three main reasons: Outside of China there appears to be containment and more resources are focused on fewer cases and time - the cases outside of China are earlier in the process. From the reported behavior and presentation of this thing, you either get sick for a while and die or you get sick for a longer while and maybe recover, but recovery takes longer than dying on average.

I think you have misplaced a decimal point, and you are too vain to admit it.

LOL, I think you have a laziness and reading comprehension issue, and maybe are mathematically challenged, and you are too vain to admit it. But no matter, you now have the link to the CCP's (questionable) data and enough information to properly read it.

[zeestephen]

LOL!

Dude, you are definitely the class windbag.

You could have saved a lot of photons by giving me the Hopkins link in your first response.

Did you notice that Hopkins does not post a “mortality rate” on the Deaths/Resolved page?

I checked “Morbidity and Mortality Weekly” - they have no mortality rate up, either.

And, Wiki is tracking all the statistics in real time - they leave the mortality rate box empty on all their charts.

Did you know that only 1 death has been recorded outside China? From memory, there are about 400 cases outside China.

Just for fun, I looked up the USA mortality rate for the Spanish Flu epidemic. The CDC says about 2.5% with a national infection rate of about 30 million.

You need to take your 20% mortality prediction to a hospice!

[calenel]

The link was posted earlier on this thread, and on many other threads.

It’s not my problem that you are maths-challenged.

If you can’t understand that deaths/(deaths + recoveries) is how you actually calculate mortality, and unresolved cases are exactly that, well, you aren’t going to contribute much to this discussion.

You should probably just be quiet until you catch up. If you can.

[calenel]

Oh, and since you’ve missed it the many times it has been pointed out, THIS IS NOT THE FLU.

[Svartalfiar]

Re: “Of the resolved cases, 29% have died and 71% have recovered.”

Source, please?

Also - why should I trust your source more than the Chinese source?

That exact quote is from calenal's post #20 in this thread. Which I assume he pulled from the official Chinese stats, as that's what he said, and it matched the official numbers I pulled from around that time. I'm not sure who your Chinese numbers source is, where his info is way different..?

Of course if you hit that link now, we're up to 909 / 3328, bringing the 'official Chinese stats' mortality rate down to 21%.

[Svartalfiar]

The data I saw was about 24-28 days to recovery. Half that to death. Recovery is always lagging death.

True. You can die at any point along that time frame, but recovery is only at the end. So as we go along, we should see the rate edge down, as deaths slow down and recoveries begin, for any select group of people over the same initiated time frame. Which is probably why the official Chinese numbers have dropped from 29% down to 21%.

[Svartalfiar]

Well that was just replied straight from my pings page, didn't notice y'all had a conversation still going :p


You never give the raw numbers on “resolved” cases. You just keep saying 29% dead.
China started posting the infected and dead numbers four weeks ago. The death toll was 2.5% on their first post. The China death toll has hovered consistently around 2% since that first post.

Well apparently you only looked at calenel's history, cause I definitely have several posts with raw numbers. Some even show step-by-step math! And China's 'official' death toll has never been that low, it started close to 50%. (To be expected, as recoveries take the entire duration of the sickness, while the deaths come quicker.) As of a couple days ago we were at 29%, and right now they show 21%. (I'll give you all the raw numbers below.)


And, Wiki is tracking all the statistics in real time - they leave the mortality rate box empty on all their charts.

Wikipedia is not the best source for real data on anything, but let's take this rabbit hole. Some random guy on wikipedia (incorrectly) says the rate is 2%, with citation 15/16. (Even though you said wikipedia doesn't state the mortality rate.) If we go to footnote 16 ("Wuhan Coronavirus Death Rate". Worldometer. Retrieved 5 February 2020.), we'll find a whole article about this, that SAYS EXACTLY WHAT WE'RE SAYING.

- In other words, current deaths belong to a total case figure of the past, not to the current case figure in which the outcome (recovery or death) of a proportion (the most recent cases) hasn't yet been determined.
- If we use the flawed formula (deaths / cases) we get: 813 / 37,552 = 2.2% CFR (flawed formula).
- An alternative method, which has the advantage of not having to estimate a variable, and that is mentioned in the American Journal of Epidemiology study cited previously as a simple method that nevertheless could work reasonably well if the hazards of death and recovery at any time t measured from admission to the hospital, conditional on an event occurring at time t, are proportional, would be to use the formula: CFR = deaths / (deaths + recovered) which, with the latest data available, would be equal to: 910 / (910 + 3,324) = 21% CFR (worldwide)
- Finally, we shall remember that while the 2003 SARS epidemic was still ongoing, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported a fatality rate of 4% (or as low as 3%), whereas the final case fatality rate ended up being 9.6%.

So the alternative method (what me and calenel are using) isn't fully accurate, as that would require the deaths to be spread evenly through the course of disease. Instead, they spike around I think week 2, and then fall off (so more recoveries) as you move into weeks 3-4+. So this formula will start with a higher death rate as there's no recoveries, then as more cases resolve, it'll fall somewhat until it reaches close to the actual rate.


Just for fun, I looked up the USA mortality rate for the Spanish Flu epidemic. The CDC says about 2.5% with a national infection rate of about 30 million.
You need to take your 20% mortality prediction to a hospice!

Why compare this to the flu? It's not the flu, it won't have similar infection or death rates except entirely by coincidence. Also, you do realize there's several types of flu? Here's a short list, with their approximate mortality rates. Many of the ones not listed are 0-2%, or are non-communicable to humans (swine/avian/equine flus mostly). Note different strains within these might be different as well.

A/H2N2: ~.1%
A/H3N2: some strains .1%, others up to 20%
A/H1N1: up to 20%
A/H3N8: varies, 6-35%.
A/H7N9: ~30%
A/H5N1: ~60%
Flu Type C barely does anything to you.
Flu type D is not even transmissible to humans


And here's your numbers, direct from the Chinese site. https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia?scene=2. In parentheses is John Hopkins's worldwide totals. https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6. They may not fully line up, as I have no idea how recently updated the Chinese stats are, so there may be a bit of overlap/gap.

Total Confirmed: 40,235 (40,540)
Total Suspected: 23,589 (no stat)
Severe Cases: . . 6484 (no stat)
Deaths: . . . . . . . 909 (910)
Recovered: . . . . 3328 (3383)

Mortality Rate: 909 / (909 + 3383) = 21.18%

[Svartalfiar]

Eh I crossed numbers on that mortality rate. Anyways, here's a breakdown/combine:

China
909 / (909 + 3328) = 21.45%

Not China (Hong Kong is included in China)
1 / (1 + 26) = 3.70%

World Total
910 / (910 + 3383) = 21.20%