The Flu Has Killed 10,000 Americans As The World Worries Over Coronavirus

Yahoo News ^ | 2-6-2020 | Rachel Bender

[calenel]

I read that there are only 2 labs on the entire continent of Africa that can run the diagnostic test for this virus.

My point, exactly, thank you. I don't know the number but 2 wouldn't be a surprise. My issue is that we don't know what's going on there and we really ought to find out.

[Black Agnes]

And the cost and distribution of the tests to who knows where.

I think one lab was in South AFrica and the other was in Egypt?

[blam]

Hidden News About The Epidemic Sweeping Across America

[NELSON111]

Yep - always. The Chinese also always shut down their stock markets and close their biggest cities for the flu too lol

Seriously - for those who just think it's the flu - here are more stats: The flu has a death rate of .3%....this death rate near 2-3%. The flu has an SCR (serious complication rate - requiring ICU treatment) of around 1%. This has an SCR of near 20%.

If this is the flu - then why has it killed 200x more people (in a comparative timeline) - infected 15x more people (again, in a comparative 7-week timeline) - why does it put 20x more people in ICU and kill 7x more people?

The "flu" people need to explain that to me...

[Salvation]

**An estimated 19 million Americans have been infected with the flu so far this season, and 180,000 of them have been hospitalized because of the illness, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The flu virus has already killed an estimated 10,000 people across the U.S., including 68 children, according to the CDC. In fact, the 2019-2020 flu season is shaping up to be one of the worst in years. **

Interesting comparison.

[calenel]

But let's have some fun with numbers: if we accept the PRC numbers (a BIG assumption) then we have 20k+ confirmed cases out of about 35MM quarantined people in cities, or a 0.06% chance of contracting coronavirus.

There are over 30K confirmed cases, the vast majority of them in one city with only 11 million people. The first city they locked down. You are using a ratio of confirmed cases to total population which might be legitimate after the thing has run its course, but this early with such a long incubation period, symptomless contagiousness and other known factors, is pretty much meaningless. Maybe in a few weeks it might be something to look at.

If we apply that 6 basis point chance to 22.5MM who sought treatment for influenza (which is more comparable to the quarantined lot), you get 13,500 people contracting coronavirus. If we apply a 2.5% fatality rate, we get 338 dead people in America.

WHV is more transmissible than the flu and you have to apply the 6 basis points to the entire exposed population, just as you did for the quarantined population in China, not just the people that caught the flu badly enough to seek treatment.

Is it your belief that the dozen cases we have (and the however many undiagnosed cases) will lead to hundereds of thousands of dead on our shores?

As I stated it appears that we have containment outside of China. That being said, containment can fail and there are plenty of idiots that would carelessly expose others or even deliberately do so. There is one guy that did exactly that and caused quarantine for some 4000 other people. So my message has been: this is NOT the flu. It has significantly different characteristics. It is more deadly by orders of magnitude, spreads faster and has stealth capabilities. But it is not time to panic. Just be prepared and vigilant. I also think that Western countries will deal more effectively with it than China has. We have better infrastructure and more capability. That doesn't mean this isn't a crisis, and the people that insist it's a nothing-burger are simply spreading ignorance.

It sounds like we're both saying "Don't panic, but be vigilant." I think that's the right message at this point. I believe if the world can maintain containment we can get ahead of this thing, but I think the news out of China is just going to be bad for a while. And I also take the PRC's numbers with a large grain of salt.

[Boomer]

Someone forgot to do the math...

In the USA, influenza kills approximately 0.2% of the people who catch it.

In China, the corona virus is killing 2.0% of the people who catch it.

In other words - the corona virus is killing TEN TIMES more infected people in China than influenza kills infected people in the USA.

This assumes we are getting the correct numbers from China. It could be much worse than 2%.

[Nifster]

Sure you did. “Because the shot is a scam”

[zeestephen]

Re: It could be much worse than 2%.

It could also be lower.

If a significant number of survivors are not in contact with the medical community, that would make the mortality rate appear to be much higher.

Speaking as a healthy adult, if I developed corona virus symptoms, I would not go anywhere near a doctor’s office or a clinic in China.

I don’t even want to think about what the conditions in a Chinese “quarantine” facility would be like.

[PIF]

Tencent leaked numbers from a week ago put Wusan only deaths at over 24,000 out of a population of 11 million - for the other 40 million under quarantine, there are no numbers

[21twelve]

“...with a limited number of potential hosts>”

I read somewhere that there was one guy from Wuhan, got sick with the virus. They think he was the start of it all. Will make for an interesting case study for sure.

And perhaps it will help them figure out more about this virus, and quickly, to fight it.

[gnarledmaw]

Because it is. There is no significant difference in the number of people we lose whether they get the combination right or wrong. Nothing about that statement suggests people don’t die because they do and that’s the problem. If it actually protected as large of a segment of the community as they claim it does, the people you’ve noted, then there would be significantly less people that die when they get it right and the numbers have historically not supported that.

[Carriage Hill]

You’re right; my numbers are probably way to low.

[corlorde]

Bookmark

[Nifster]

The flu shot has zero to do with whether there will be deaths

I think we agree on that

I don’t take flu shots because I just don’t. Aggravates my doc and I don’t care.

[silverleaf]

Patient zero apparently boarded Dec 30 in Hong Kong
Ship has tested about 273 passengers, with 61 positives so far
That is pretty strikingly high infection rate
The rest of the 3000+ passengers have about another week in quarantine, which is self isolation locked in cabins

[silverleaf]

As far as I know we have not stopped planes from China, just passengers who have been in China

Possibly the airline pilots and cabin crews will do what spineless govts are afraid to do, when they start refusing to fly

I read some UPS pilots already refusing to fly into China, being told they must accept unpaid leave

[DoodleBob]

Thank you for your thoughtful reply.

For the math part of this exercise, it comes down to an issue of data comparability. And Yes, You're right - I needed to update my numbers: Per the JH Map, at this time there are 31,210 confirmed cases and 636 deaths in Mainland China if we believe their numbers..,which I don't entirely but I'll work with them for now. (I agree, that comparing data on a fluid situation vs that of a resolved situation isn't great, but it's what we have.) On the quarantine side, numbers aren't exact but I've seen reports of up to 35MM.

We haven't quarantined folks in the US for influenza, but we COULD use those seeking treatment as a proxy. I use the hospitalized influenza patients as the US proxy for "confirmed cases" and deaths are deaths.

That's the math part of the exercise, and the assumptions and assessments. As for the verbal part of this tragic SAT test:

But it is not time to panic. Just be prepared and vigilant. I also think that Western countries will deal more effectively with it than China has. We have better infrastructure and more capability. That doesn't mean this isn't a crisis, and the people that insist it's a nothing-burger are simply spreading ignorance.

We are indeed saying the same thing. Thank you again.

[zeugma]

Simply running the numbers given...

Flu death rate = 180,000/19,000,000 = 0.00947368421053
coronavirus death rate = 565/28,000 = 0.0201785714286

Applying coronavirus rate to those who contracted the flu = 0.0201785714286*19,000,000 = 383,393
Applying flu rate to coronavirus = 0.00947368421053*28,000 = 265

So yes, coronavirus is more deadly of the two (at least from recorded rates), but it hardly compares against some historical pandemics. It makes sense to take precautions, but the same goes for the flu for those without robust immune systems. It wouldn’t appear that coronavirus is even a full order of magnitude worse than flu.

[SIDENET]

In the end, it will have a kill rate of 10%-20%. Deaths lag infections. It takes 10-14days between infection and death. Look at the deaths today, verses the infections 10-140days ago. That ratio is between 10%-20%. That is the real story.

I keep seeing that 25% of people who catch this will require hospitalization and intensive treatment, and this is going off of Chicom numbers. No country has the hospital capacity to deal with pandemic numbers. Correct me if I'm wrong, but US hospitals are usually swamped this time of the year just with seasonal flu and normal injuries and illnesses.

It seems to me that this virus is quite capable of producing a fatality rate in the 25% range if not greater.

I sure hope I'm wrong.