Posted on 02/06/2020 5:59:13 PM PST by blam
Whether youre watching TV or reading the news, youd be hard-pressed to avoid a story about coronavirus. And its no wonder, since the outbreak which now affects more than 27 countries outside of China, where the Wuhan coronavirus originated has been declared a global health emergency by the World Health Organization (WHO).
But theres another major health threat that seems to be getting lost in the fray: the flu. An estimated 19 million Americans have been infected with the flu so far this season, and 180,000 of them have been hospitalized because of the illness, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The flu virus has already killed an estimated 10,000 people across the U.S., including 68 children, according to the CDC. In fact, the 2019-2020 flu season is shaping up to be one of the worst in years.
In contrast, the Wuhan coronavirus has infected more than 28,000 people and killed 565, according to data gathered by Johns Hopkins University.
While Iahn Gonsenhauser, MD, chief quality and patient safety officer at Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, tells Yahoo Lifestyle that its still too early to classify how virulent the novel coronavirus strain is, he notes that were already facing an epidemic of panic.
However, flu is by far the thing we should be worried about because its the thing were more likely to encounter, Gonsenhauser says. If youre a child, elderly, frail, or have COPD or heart failure, your risk of mortality is actually pretty high with the flu. Your risk of coronavirus its 12 cases in the U.S. youre pretty unlikely to come into contact with them.
One of the reasons why coronavirus is garnering much more attention than the flu has to do with
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at yahoo.com ...
Dang, thats turning into a plague ship.
Those poor passengers!
“Source, please?”
He was quoting my post, and my source IS the CCP’s numbers as reported through JHU. These are public numbers that anyone can find, so if you are just looking now, let’s not go all the way back to the beginning and make us re-explain them when you can just read the various posts available right here.
However, those numbers are now a few days old and the mortality rate has dropped under 25%. And, yes, we all know that the Chinese have a history of lying about these things to save face. And the source does not update all the data at the same time, so derived numbers can be less accurate.
The good news is that outside of China it appears we have containment. But things are pretty bad in China, still, and containment can fail or perhaps we haven’t identified all the possible infected. So continue to be vigilant, but there isn’t any need to panic.
CCP?
JHU?
I read all your corona virus posts going back three days.
You never give the raw numbers on “resolved” cases. You just keep saying 29% dead.
China started posting the infected and dead numbers four weeks ago. The death toll was 2.5% on their first post. The China death toll has hovered consistently around 2% since that first post.
Even if China is now lying, why are we not seeing this 29% death toll on cruise ships and in other countries?
I think you have misplaced a decimal point, and you are too vain to admit it.
Chinese Communist Party
JHU?
John Hopkins University
I read all your corona virus posts going back three days.
Did you think this was the only thread or that only my posts have any data? And this didn't just start three days ago.
You never give the raw numbers on resolved cases. You just keep saying 29% dead.
See posts 20, 98, 107, 108 and there is a link to the JHU site here: JHU data from CCP (and already posted elsewhere on this thread), where the raw numbers are now 814 dead and 2922 recovered, for a MORTALITY rate of about 22% (now). Early on it was well over 50% but it has been declining over time.
China started posting the infected and dead numbers four weeks ago. The death toll was 2.5% on their first post. The China death toll has hovered consistently around 2% since that first post.
You are using the wrong number - infected instead of resolved cases - in your calculation. We don't know how those infected will resolve. Maybe they all live, in which case your 2% figure becomes the actual mortality rate, or maybe they all die, in which case the mortality rate is going to be around 97%. Most likely, as the mortality rate appears to be asymptotically approaching something close to 20%, we can expect about 8,000 dead from the currently infected pool.
Even if China is now lying, why are we not seeing this 29% death toll on cruise ships and in other countries?
Three main reasons: Outside of China there appears to be containment and more resources are focused on fewer cases and time - the cases outside of China are earlier in the process. From the reported behavior and presentation of this thing, you either get sick for a while and die or you get sick for a longer while and maybe recover, but recovery takes longer than dying on average.
I think you have misplaced a decimal point, and you are too vain to admit it.
LOL, I think you have a laziness and reading comprehension issue, and maybe are mathematically challenged, and you are too vain to admit it. But no matter, you now have the link to the CCP's (questionable) data and enough information to properly read it.
Dude, you are definitely the class windbag.
You could have saved a lot of photons by giving me the Hopkins link in your first response.
Did you notice that Hopkins does not post a “mortality rate” on the Deaths/Resolved page?
I checked “Morbidity and Mortality Weekly” - they have no mortality rate up, either.
And, Wiki is tracking all the statistics in real time - they leave the mortality rate box empty on all their charts.
Did you know that only 1 death has been recorded outside China? From memory, there are about 400 cases outside China.
Just for fun, I looked up the USA mortality rate for the Spanish Flu epidemic. The CDC says about 2.5% with a national infection rate of about 30 million.
You need to take your 20% mortality prediction to a hospice!
The link was posted earlier on this thread, and on many other threads.
It’s not my problem that you are maths-challenged.
If you can’t understand that deaths/(deaths + recoveries) is how you actually calculate mortality, and unresolved cases are exactly that, well, you aren’t going to contribute much to this discussion.
You should probably just be quiet until you catch up. If you can.
Oh, and since you’ve missed it the many times it has been pointed out, THIS IS NOT THE FLU.
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