The NUMBER of flu deaths is very different from the RATE of flu deaths. And the government knows that, but insists on obfuscation.
Roughly 22,500,000 people caught the flu last year and the number of deaths was 10,000.
The death rate from the flu is 10,000 / 22,500,000, or 4.4 deaths per 10,000 infected: .04%.
The reported death rate of the Coronavirus is 2.5%, meaning that if the same number of people catch the more highly contagious Coronavirus, the number of deaths will be: 22,500,000 x .026 = 585,000.
Most people will recognize that 585,000 is significantly higher than 10,000.
And that is exactly why your servants of the people are not telling you about it.
“Most people will recognize that 585,000 is significantly higher than 10,000.”
I also read the coronavirus is easier to catch than the common flu.
Quoth Shakespeare, there's the rub.
There are a lot of factors that go into contracting influenza vs coronavirus. For example, there are almost NO precautions we take in the US when it comes to influenza aside from extra hand washing during the flu season. That's why, in part, so many people get the flu.
If Americans adopt precautionary measures for coronavirus like not going to work, then the likelihood comes way down. I suspect the hysteria around this virus will lead to greater personal hygiene etc which will also likely keep down contaigion.
But let's have some fun with numbers: if we accept the PRC numbers (a BIG assumption) then we have 20k+ confirmed cases out of about 35MM quarantined people in cities, or a 0.06% chance of contracting coronavirus.
If we apply that 6 basis point chance to 22.5MM who sought treatment for influenza (which is more comparable to the quarantined lot), you get 13,500 people contracting coronavirus. If we apply a 2.5% fatality rate, we get 338 dead people in America.
That's bad, and as many people are saying (and I'd agree) it is prudent to take precautions and buy extra food and water etc. This is a situation worth monitoring and ignorance isn't helpful.
But 338 dead people is not 585,000 dead people. And I'm willing to wager a $10 donation to the next FReepahon that we won't see 300 or more Americans dead on our soil from coronavirus by May.
Expect fatality rates closer to 15%