US spy challenge offers $250k to those who can accurately forecast future events

The Telegraph ^ | 05/18/2019 | Ben Riley-Smith

[aimhigh]

American spy chiefs are offering $250,000 in prize money for a competition that will test how successfully someone can predict future unknowns such as political election results or missile tests.

The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity [IARPA], which sits within the office of America’s top intelligence official, is behind the challenge, which is designed to improve forecasting techniques.

Participants will be asked more than 300 questions about the outcomes of various issues across a nine-month period. The winner will collect $153,000, with smaller prizes to runner-ups.

Sample questions listed include “Which political party will win the most seats during the Polish Parliamentary Election?” and ”What will be the daily closing price of gold in June 2019 in USD?”

[mylife]

I often say, where can I get a job in weather?

They get the big bucks and miss it 88% of the time.

I can do a better forecast. Hey I bet it rains tonight.

[null and void]

At no point in history has any government ever wanted its people to be defenseless for any good reason ~ nully's son

The biggest killer of mankind

Nut-job Conspiracy Theory Ping!

To get onto The Nut-job Conspiracy Theory Ping List you must threaten to report me to the Mods if I don't add you to the list...

Any winner on the N-JCT ping list who found out about it here, and wins, is invited to share...

[sparklite2]

He knew this was coming...

[mylife]

Lordstown Ohio is not going away.
It is a political football, but it is not going away.
Trump wants it and the Dems want it.

I say lets build trucks, big hucking trucks..

[x]

[DoughtyOne]

Don’t laugh. He had a pretty good record.

Smile...

[I want the USA back]

I’ll give 1000 different “prophesies” and one of them will be close enough and I’ll win and everyone will think I can foresee the future.

[Leaning Right]

This is going to be easy. I should start spending that $250,000 now.

My method (please don't tell anyone): I'm going to ask Dick Morris for his predictions. Then I will predict the exact opposite.

[VanShuyten]

The rules say groups can apply.
I bet that A FR group could easily win this, and then JR would be able to cancel one fund drive.

[bgill]

Trump will win in ‘20.

Libs will try to steal every election from the local school board on up.

There will never be an end to the illegal caravans in our lifetime.

Demwits will never leave Trump alone.

Korea, China, Russia, Iran and the US will continue to test their missiles.

There will be at least one intentionally brought over Ebola case in the US this year.

Colleges will run out of green crayons.

There will be a climate change on June 21, Sept. 23 and Dec. 21.

[RandallFlagg]

You missed a few

Democrats will blame the next future shooting on gun owners who were never anywhere near there

Gun grabbers will ignore the next future shooting if it involves one of their protected people.

The media will drop any news of a future shooting if somebody with a firearm shoot back in the lawful self-defense.

Don’t worry, I’ll share the check with you.

[Grimmy]

I’m gonna have a pork chop, rice and steamed broccoli for dinner.

I win!

[SuperLuminal]

Well. I can accurately predict events the will not occur...
For example:

• Hitlary poses nude for Playboy's centerfold;
• obunghole's college grades are finally released;
• The demoncrats believe that the Constitution was a magnificent document; and,
• Mark Levin gets Maxine W. pregnant.

That should worth at least 10-cents...

[fella]

People who stare at goats.

[Joe 6-pack]

"Anyone who can truly see the future would see that the US Spy Industry would imprison and use you like a commodity, like an asset, and your life would be over."

That's pretty much the subtext of the Stephen King movie, "Hearts in Atlantis," though the short story it's based on is a little more complicated/nefarious than that.

[sparklite2]

Predicting is hard, particularly when the future is involved.

Predicting the past is much more satisfying. In the Bible, someone would write years after an event as if it years BEFORE the event, and then go on to predict the event perfectly.

Good work if you can get it.

[Big Red Badger]

Just get the
“POWER BALL”
Once,
Just ONCE!

[fruser1]

Actually, anyone who can actually see the future already sent in the answers and has planned what to do with the money.

All right on schedule.

[M Kehoe]

And to prove I can tell the future.

Somebody will contact me by FReepmail to hire my services.

After reviewing my posts of course.

I’m better than 52% or more on a coin flip.

5.56mm

[USFRIENDINVICTORIA]

I was a mean statistical analyst (pun intended), and was often in the mode (again) to study and apply decision theory. Yes, someone could do “exceptionally well” just by luck — compared to others, who are also counting on luck. However, the point of the contest is to discover predictive tools. Prediction markets are one such tool — there are others. How many others, and which work the best? That’s what we may find out.