Free Republic

In recent months, investors have been unjustly chastised for their lack of consistency. In truth, they have an unblemished record of drawing the wrong conclusions. Last week’s 2nd quarter GDP report provides the freshest evidence of market cluelessness.... Without raising an eyebrow on Wall Street or in the press, the GDP deflator, used in the report to downwardly adjust GDP to account for inflation, was shown at just 1.2% annualized.... the lowest deflator in ten years. In other words, to arrive at a 3.3% growth rate, the government assumed that inflation is running at a ten-year low! In contrast, the...

There are 5 contracts that I intend to examine to get a start on finding some kind of number to quantify Liberal Bias on Intrade. The first contract is 2008.PRES.CLINTON(H) which seems like it should have zero value. This gives a good glimpse at a baseline bias value. Taking into account the volume of the contract, bias might be expressed as Price * Volume of such a baseline contract. In this case it's 3.2 * 522834, but that's unnecessarily high because the volume is over the life of the contract. So I would use the volume since the convention ended,...

When DNA from hundreds of people is pooled together, it has been impossible to identify any individuals. In what could be a boon for crime-fighters, however, a statistical technique now makes the task possible--allowing forensic detectives to determine whether a suspect handled a gun, for example. But the technique also creates a privacy concern about health data; the National Institutes of Health (NIH) in Bethesda, Maryland, is now backpedaling on a policy mandating genetic sharing developed just 8 months ago for fear that the health information of people who participated in the studies could be identified. The authors of the...

Selective Math at Census by: Jesse Masai, September 02, 2008 Tuesday’s release of Census annual report on poverty and income for 2007 had some news, and it has now been left to experts to decide whether the report bodes ill or good: • The average American household’s income rose for the third year running; • Income inequality fell yet again, meaning the gap between the rich and poor decreased; • Poverty rate inched up very, very slightly from 12.3 percent to 12.5 percent; and • Every August, economists rush from their vacations to offer their opinions on this report. In...

A Rise in Poverty by: Irene Warren, August 29, 2008 The number of American families living in poverty in the United States “increased 1.3 percent between 2006 and 2007,” according to the latest data released by the U.S. Census Bureau. And, in terms of those who lacked healthcare coverage, the report showed an increase in the number of people who were without healthcare coverage in 2007. Data collected, using the Current Population Survey (CPS) and the Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) Survey, in 2008 showed that “the nation’s official poverty rate in 2007 was 12.5 percent,” as the U.S....

...In fall 2006, political scientists, including us, representing about 30 universities conducted a survey of 16,000 Americans, the Cooperative Congressional Election Study. The survey asked respondents whether they read blogs and, if so, which ones. We analyzed the answers, and the result is the first detailed portrait of political blog readers. About 34% of the respondents said they read blogs, but only 14% named at least one blog that focuses on politics. Who are these political blog readers? Compared with those who don't read political blogs, they are more likely to have a college degree and, obviously, are more interested...

Statistics Phenomenon On The Pitch: Often Two Players With The Same Birthday At The World Cup ScienceDaily (Jun. 12, 2008) — The German defender Philipp Lahm and the Portuguese midfield star Maniche were both born on 11. November – and they were both playing in the game for the third place at the World Cup 2006. Anyway, in more than half of the games at the World Cup 2006 at least two persons on the field had the same birthday. That is what Yanina Lyesnyak found out within the scope of her bachelor thesis supervised by Prof. Walter Krämer. And...

Surprising research suggests that childhood cancer is most common in the Northeast, results that even caught experts off-guard. But some specialists say it could just reflect differences in reporting. The large government study is the first to find notable regional differences in pediatric cancer. Experts say it also provides important information to bolster smaller studies, confirming that cancer is rare in children, but also more common in older kids, especially among Caucasian boys. The study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is based on data representing 90 percent of the U.S. population. It found that cancer affects about...

When I started researching my column on illegal immigration several months ago, I knew illegal immigration wasn't a good thing. Turns out, I didn't know the half of it. I am a product of legal immigration. My ancestors fought in the American Revolution, the Civil War, and World War II. (Yeah, I know. We can't get along with anyone!) As Kathleen Parker's column last week said, "We love to boast that we are a nation of immigrants — and we are. But there’s a different sense of America among those who trace their bloodlines back through generations of sacrifice." This...

One hundred nine historians already nearly unanimously agree. They call the presidency of George W. Bush a "failure." The History News Network (HNN), who polled the historians, failed to name them or where they work. Wonder why? American Enterprise magazine, in 2002, examined voter registrations to determine the political affiliations of humanities professors at an assortment of colleges and universities, public and private, big and small, located in the North, South, East and West. Of those registered with a political party -- and most were -- historians overwhelmingly belong to a "party of the left" (Democratic, Green or Working Families...

Hard numbers: The economy is worse than you know Ever since the 1960s, Washington has gulled its citizens and creditors by debasing official statistics, the vital instruments with which the vigor and muscle of the American economy are measured. The effect has been to create a false sense of economic achievement and rectitude, allowing us to maintain artificially low interest rates, massive government borrowing, and a dangerous reliance on mortgage and financial debt even as real economic growth has been slower than claimed. The corruption has tainted the very measures that most shape public perception of the economy: • The...

In words that he has come to regret, Barack Obama opined as to why he was having a hard time winning over many blue-collar voters: "They get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or antitrade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations." ...Who are all these gun owners? Are they the uneducated poor, left behind? It turns out they have the same level of formal education as nongun owners, on average. Furthermore, they earn 32% more per year than nonowners. Americans with guns are neither a small...

This just struck me. Members of the homosexual lobby like to claim that 10% of the population is gay. However, something like 90% of the gay population votes democratic. So does that mean, if democrats get about 40-45 percent of the male vote, that about 1/3 of the men that vote democrat are gay, by their own statistics? And considering how heavily the black community skews Democratic, wouldn't that mean that an even greater percentage of white male democratic voters are gay? Perhaps 35% to 40%? Now I don't necessarily believe this, since i reject the 10% figure, and my...

I am attempting to find a US Government source for the number of small and medium business in the US. I have gone to the US Dept of Commerce site with little luck. Can someone point me to a useful URL that would provide any kind of useful and "official" numbers (even estimates) that would allow me to be able to assert the following: Total number of SMBs for 2000 through 2006 or 2007 Number of SMBs for the each year per state

The NYT's agenda journalism defames another generation of veterans, and gets sharp response

It might not come as a surprise to learn that the cars Britons own are smaller than the cars Americans drive or that Swedes favour safe, politically correct SAAB's and Volvo's. But there's more to be said. To begin with: WHO'S RICH, WHO'S NOT? - Swedes claim they enjoy the highest standard of living in the world and they also say poverty, in absolute terms, is extinct in their country. The income distribution is known for being extremely even. If this really is true, how is it reflected in Swedish car consumption? Furthermore, for the first time since the 19th...

I just excerpted the portion on BLS statistics: "For many months now, there had been plenty of warning that recession was lurking out there in the tall grass. ...economy was tanking, led by manufacturing, which was supposed be enjoying a boomlet thanks to the debased dollar and demand from abroad, and retailing, which presumably could always count, in fair weather or foul, on consumers to consume. Alas, it ain't necessarily so. Came Friday and with it the crusher in the form of an exceptionally ugly report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on jobs -- or more precisely, the lack...

This opens up all areas of life to statistical treatment, carefully balanced with human judgement. "Take MRSA for example. Each night there are about 100,000 people being cared for in English hospitals, and about 18 of those will be diagnosed with MRSA infection. That figure is pretty constant, so at a national level you can make stable predictions of how many people will contract the disease. But to assess an individual's risk is another matter. You could say it's 18 in 100,000, but that's just for an average person. In reality everyone is unique. The risk will vary according to...

The 2007 Human Development Report says Iceland now leads annual United Nations Index. Iceland has narrowly passed Norway to take the top spot on the Human Development Index (HDI), according to the 2007/2008 Human Development Report (HDR) released by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) today. Norway had held the number one ranking for the previous six years. This change in ranking is a result of new estimates of life expectancy and updated GDP per capita figures, stress the Report authors. Introduced with the first HDR in 1990, the HDI assesses the state of human development through life expectancy, adult...

November 6, 2007 8 percent of the U.S. population are veterans. In 2006, there were 23.9 million veterans in the United States. Of that number, • 33 percent served in Vietnam; –18 percent served in the Gulf War; –14 percent served in World War II; –13 percent served in the Korean War. • the largest group—38 percent—are over 65. –Another 25 percent are ages 55 to 64; –16 percent are ages 45 to 54; –12 percent are ages 35 to 44. –The smallest group is the under-35 age group: 8 percent of veterans are under 35. (........more at the link)

This article is a compilation of income and wealth statistics by percentile. It is fairly comprehensive. Among the quotes are: "...Whenever I slip these tidbits into cocktail party chatter, people are surprised to realize how little money it takes to win a gold star from the Fed. If you and yours are bringing in $40,000 a year, you're doing better than half the households in America. Or, as a Washington think tank recently pointed out: If you're a teacher married to a policeman, your combined household income puts you in the top 25 percent of all households in the nation....

RANDOLPH AIR FORCE BASE, Texas -- The Air Force Personnel Center here recently published its demographics report offering a snapshot of the service's active-duty and civilian force, as of Sept. 30. More information can be found at the center's analysis branch website: http://wwa.afpc.randolph.af.mil/demographics/. Statistics are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Mr. Meangenes stopped by for coffee, and we got to talking about illegal immigration - which we both hate -and going over some of the statistics bandied about.

Check out this very remarkable video presentation about world population and health statistics, one that debunks many common myths. Freepers should find it fascinating. Here's a link to the video: http://www.ted.com/talks/view/id/92

...as long as the things they are gullible about confirm their prejudices. I've got a newfound - interest - in military welfare these days. So I pay particular attention to news items that cross my computer screen that touch on issues about the welfare of our military. A few weeks ago, I saw the release about rising suicide rates in the military, and to be honest I was concerned. Army soldiers committed suicide last year at the highest rate in 26 years, and more than a quarter did so while serving in Iraq and Afghanistan, according to a new...

Leading Causes of Death in the United States As compiled from data reported by the National Vital Statistics Report, Vol. 50, No. 15, September 16, 2002

Despite overwhelming military superiority, the world’s most powerful nations failed to achieve their objectives in 39 percent of their military operations since World War II, according to a new University of Georgia study. The study, by assistant professor Patricia L. Sullivan in the UGA School of Public and International Affairs, explains the circumstances under which more powerful nations are likely to fail and creates a model that allows policymakers to calculate the probability of success in current and future conflicts. “If you know some key variables – like the major objective, the nature of the target, whether there’s going to...

In a 2005 article in the Journal of the American Medical Association, epidemiologist John Ioannidis showed that among the 45 most highly cited clinical research findings of the past 15 years, 99 percent of molecular research had subsequently been refuted. Epidemiology findings had been contradicted in four-fifths of the cases he looked at, and the usually robust outcomes of clinical trials had a refutation rate of one in four. The revelations struck a chord with the scientific community at large: A recent essay by Ioannidis simply entitled "Why most published research findings are false" has been downloaded more than 100,000...

Media: Communist regimes are known to falsify and distort statistics, but they rarely get away with it unless Western media play along. They scored a big hit recently with data about Cuba's storied life expectancy. In a widely distributed news story, the Associated Press last week explained why Cubans were living such long, healthy lives under their 47-year totalitarian dictatorship. Taking the word of Cuban officials, it credited the island's "mild climate," "free medical care" and "low-stress Caribbean lifestyle." Right on cue, CBS gave "thanks to the socialist island state's free health-care system" that's there so "fortunately." But media claims...

It is already painfully clear that models of anthropogenic global warming are ridiculously inadequate, and do not meet the basic tests of experimental science, no matter how many "scientists" yell "consensus." Now comes a serious question from a serious scientist that threatens to undermine the fundamental premise of the alarmists. Danish physicist Bjarne Andresen has raised the interesting point that there may be no global warming, because there is no such thing as global temperature! That is because the earth atmosphere is not a homogeneous system. It's not a glass lab jar in your high school physics lab. Says Andresen,...

Well, are the inhabitants of the EU prosperous or not? Yes and no. Many Europeans (and Americans as well) would say the US is part poor, part affluent, arguing that wealth is distributed in a very uneven way in that country. However, regarding regional GDP/capita, there probably are even greater differences between the EU citizens than between US Americans (regardless of the reasons to this situation)! For instance, according to the study, Inner London is more than 36 times richer than North Eastern Romania! The article: "Regional GDP per inhabitant in the EU27 GDP per inhabitant in 2004 ranged from...

46.6 million are uninsured. That number, from the Census Bureau, is misleading. It makes it seem like there are that many who simply can’t get coverage. Fact is, this group is constantly changing, and most of the uninsured soon have coverage again. A Congressional Budget Office report found that 45% were uninsured for four months or less — just 29% lacked coverage for more than a year. Businesses are dropping coverage. Nobody chooses to be uninsured. On the contrary, evidence shows that a large portion of the uninsured population could get coverage if they wanted it. The Census report notes...

In the global warming debate, there are essentially two broad camps. One believes that the science is settled, that global warming is serious and man-made, and that urgent action must be taken to mitigate or prevent a future calamity. The other believes that the science is far from settled, that precious little is known about global warming or its likely effects, and that prudence dictates more research and caution before intervening massively in the economy. The "science is settled" camp, much the larger of the two, includes many eminent scientists with impressive credentials. But just who are the global warming...

As pro-lifers mark the 34th anniversary of the Roe v. Wade decision, many wonder whether they could support Rudolph W. Giuliani for president despite his pro-choice views. While Giuliani’s statements on abortion make pro-lifers fret, they should find his record surprisingly reassuring. “I don’t like abortion,” Giuliani said last November. “I don’t think abortion is a good thing. I think we ought to find some alternative to abortion, and that there ought to be as few as possible.” But did Giuliani’s mayoral deeds match such words? According to the state Office of Vital Statistics, total abortions performed in New York...

There were two woman on the show being interviwed and I only caught a piece of it. But the main part was that since 9/11 over 45,000 US citizens have been killed by illigal aliens in the US. Does anyone know more about this as I am very interested. They said the numbers came from a US Congressman or Senator. also one person was with the boarder militia group, so there were three people.

Some people claim the iPod index tells you more about the economic situation of different countries than the Burger Index or GDP/capita statistics, in fact, some will even tell you it says more about this issue than any other stats available. Anyhow, In this case, what could one possibly make out of the compilation featured in the article below? What does the economies of Brazil, India and Sweden (my home country) have in common? I've heard of research reporting that Sweden is poorer than Mississippi (at least an internet profile like Instapundit - perhaps not the most frequent visitor to...

The Associated Press released an interesting set of statistics (host link stored for future ref) a couple of days ago that I would suppose were designed to suck away any optimism any fools who still support the mission in Iraq might have (bolds are mine): BAGHDAD, Iraq - Government officials on Monday reported that 16,273 Iraqi civilians, soldiers and police died violent deaths in 2006, a figure larger than an independent Associated Press count for the year by more than 2,500. The tabulation by the Iraqi ministries of Health, Defense and Interior, showed that 14,298 civilians, 1,348 police and 627...

INS/FBI Statistical Report on Undocumented Immigrants 2006 (First Quarter) INS/FBI Statistical Report on Undocumented Immigrants CRIME STATISTICS 95% of warrants for murder in Los Angeles are for illegal aliens. 83% of warrants for murder in Phoenix are for illegal aliens. 86% of warrants for murder in Albuquerque are for illegal aliens. 75% of those on the most wanted list in Los Angeles, Phoenix and Albuquerque are illegal aliens. 24.9% of all inmates in California detention centers are Mexican nationals here illegally 40.1% of all inmates in Arizona detention centers are Mexican nationals here illegally 48.2% of all inmates in New...

As the U.S. population crossed the 300 million mark sometime around 7:46 a.m. Tuesday (according to the U.S. Census Bureau), the typical family is doing a whole lot better than their grandparents were in 1967, the year the population first surpassed 200 million. Mr. and Mrs. Median's $46,326 in annual income is 32% more than their mid-'60s counterparts, even when adjusted for inflation, and 13% more than those at the median in the economic boom year of 1985. And thanks to ballooning real estate values, median household net worth has increased even faster. The typical American household has a net...

I got the idea from This thread.

I’m guessing about a nanosecond passed between the moment the British medical journal The Lancet published a study claiming that roughly 600,000 Iraqi civilians have died as a result of the war and the moment critics of the war began quoting the figure as gospel truth. The study, conducted by the John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Heath (JHBSPH), is based on a “scientific� methodology in which household surveys were conducted, census numbers examined, death certificates tabulated and data extrapolated from the results. “Since March 2003, an additional 2.5% of Iraq's population has died above what would have occurred without...

70 MILLION MORE GUNS.38% LESS VIOLENT CRIME NRA-ILA ALERTS Data released by the FBI on Monday showed that in 2005, the nation's total violent crime rate was 38% lower than in 1991, when violent crime hit an all-time high. Rates of the individual categories of violent crime were also much lower in 2005 than in 1991. Murder was 43% lower, rape 25% lower, robbery 48% lower, and aggravated assault 33% lower. The FBI's report came on the heels of a Bureau of Justice Statistics crime survey that found that violent crime was lower in 2005 than anytime in the survey's...

According to a recent study published by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), public school students are outperforming their private school counterparts in fourth grade mathematics and have equaled “private school students in fourth grade reading and eighth grade math.” However, as Shanea Watkins, Policy Analyst in Empirical Studies in the Center for Data Analysis at The Heritage Foundation, explains, these results require greater scrutiny. Some commentators that reference the NCES report believe the study points to a causal relationship—that attending a public school will cause higher academic achievement in math. However, the study focuses on data provided by...

Every day, the press focuses on the death toll in Iraq. Not only do they point out the total number of deaths, but they draw special attention to the number of Americans killed in Iraq. The liberals in the media want everyone to hear and see the negative side of this war and they will do whatever it takes to make things seem as bad as possible. What they won't do is give you comparisons to other death toll statistics so that you can judge for yourself, just how bad things really are. The anti-war protestors feed on these media...

Combinatorics, Probability Theory, and the Observer Problem   Combinatorics and probability theory are distinct yet related branches of mathematics. Combinatorics is the evaluation of a (usually) finite set of objects. It asks questions like, “How likely is it the next card I draw will be a seven of hearts?� Or, “What is the likelihood of my winning the five-ball Lotto tonight?� Next questions might be, “How many cards are in a standard deck?� Or “What are the possible combinations of numbers for a winning lottery ticket?� Extending the method from questions of this type, Combinatorics might ask, “How many...

Americans are abandoning day trips to Canada, with cross-border car crossings in February falling to record lows... Same-day car travel from the United States to Canada dropped to its lowest level on record in February, falling ...below the 1.2 million mark for the first time ever... the biggest monthly drop was in September, 2001," ... "The number of daily visitors to Canada has never again reached the 2 million mark." Americans are not only shunning day trips to Canada. On an overnight basis, the estimated 1.1 million trips by U.S. residents to Canada in February was the lowest monthly level...

30 U.S. soldiers have been reported killed in March of 2006. This is the second lowest combat death rate since the Iraq war started in 2003. The lowest rate was 19 for February of 2004. There is one day left in this reporting period.

A simple thing prompted this inquiry: a recent story by Forbes that we happened upon, in which we encountered the startling news that this year's National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) tournament will cost US businesses billions in lost productivity. The figures come courtesy of consulting outfit Challenger, Gray and Christmas - and Forbes, to its credit, expressed skepticism about them. This led us to wonder just how much money is lost to enjoyable things that finger-wagging middle-class farts disapprove of, such as smoking, drinking, gambling, overeating, watching sports, and the like. The figures we obtained (about which more below), are...

<p>New Jersey has the highest teenage abortion rate of any state, surpassing even New York, according to a report released by a national organization that studies reproductive issues.</p> <p>New Jersey recorded 47 abortions per 1,000 women ages 15 to 19, posting the highest statewide teenage abortion rate of any state for 2000, the latest time period for which state-by-state data were available.</p>

PLAYING WITH NUMBERS (re:cancer death rates)Huge."   "Historic."   "A milestone."   "A first."  "A dramatic turning point."  "No small matter."If you listened to the mainstream media last week, you might have thought that the end of cancer was in sight. The cancer death rates are down at last, we were told, for the first time in over 70 years. "It's a notable milestone," said Dr. Michael Thun, head of epidemiological research for the American Cancer Society (ACS)."That's momentous news," said Andrew C. von Eschenbach, director of the US National Cancer Institute. "It proves that our expectation of continued progress against cancer is...