Posted on 02/05/2023 7:00:33 AM PST by george76
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published a jobs report yesterday [DATA LINK] that has stunned the professional financial class. However, those who have followed the BLS data assemblies were laughing – not surprised. Eventually, if this continues, the BLS pretzel logic will start using terms like “eleventy.”
Throughout 2022, the BLS modified the underlying data they used to assemble their jobs reporting. The latest release shows that 517,000 jobs were gained in the labor market, despite every other economic indicator showing we are in an economy of contraction. The question becomes, why the disconnect?
There are two surveys that make up the BLS reporting. The Household survey is conducted by calling people and just asking if they are employed. The Payroll survey is conducted by reviewing large and medium businesses, no small businesses are included, and that plays a role in the disconnect.
...
Since the spring of last year, the two surveys have completely disconnected from each other. The household survey finds a net gain of 12,000 jobs in the last three quarters; the Payroll survey shows gains of 2.7 million jobs during the same time.
ZeroHedge did a good dive on the issue (SEE HERE), and their analysis reports, “[…] the number of full-time workers in March 2022 was 132.587 million. Fast forward to January 2023 when it was 132.577: that’s right: total US full-time workers declined by 10K over a period of 10 months. Meanwhile, part-time workers soared from 25.908 million to 27.400 million, an increase of 1.492 million! So at least we know where the bulk of the increase in US labor came from in the past year: virtually no full-time jobs, and all part-time.”
Additionally, Forbes dove into the data (SEE HERE) and reached a similar conclusion, the BLS data is all nonsense covered in statistical noise.
Forbes – […] “The Payroll Survey shows employment growth of nearly 2.7 million jobs between March and November. The Household Survey, over the same period, shows 12,000. Something is seriously wrong! The headline number that is broadcast in the media is the Payroll Survey, so if it is incorrect and the Household Survey is accurate, then the “hot” jobs market, which the Fed uses to justify its rate increases, is really a “cold” jobs market.
Looking at the recent past, the two surveys were in sync until March, when the Payroll Survey took off. Some of the issue could revolve around the small business birth/death assumptions. Since the Payroll Survey doesn’t sample small businesses, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) adds a number based on a time trend, and they even seasonally adjust this data. Over that March to November period, the Birth/Death model added 1.3 million jobs. This appears strange to any observer of economic trends, which tells us that business is contracting, not expanding. Even if the Birth/Death add-on is eliminated, the discrepancy is still 1.36 million jobs between the two surveys.” (read more)
Housing is collapsing (already collapsed in the predictable epicenters), housing starts have dropped, contracts are abandoned, businesses are contracting, companies did not hire for the holiday season, shopping and consumer purchases were nonexistent (Nov/Dec), inventories have climbed, manufacturing has contracted, thousands laid-off in the tech sector (including Amazon), and yet the BLS data shows jobs growth. These Main Street economic inconsistencies are not reconcilable unless the BLS data, models and underlying assumptions are wrong.
Right on time for Biden’s SOTU. Just saying.
Biden can have his moment for the SotU speech, but reality will win in time.
Few people follow BLS statistics, but most understand their bills vs paycheck.
The RATS in the DNC’s “mainstream media” was just getting the cranky old, honky pedophile ready for his big SOTU Show. FAKE statistics. Where da fart checkers?!
> Right on time for Biden’s SOTU. Just saying. <
Bingo. The numbers will be quietly revised later this month. Or maybe they’ll keep the numbers, and just invent silly new terms like “normalizing the fluctuating economic data”. That should keep everyone happy.
So they are just going to make statistics up... forever?
Once again, not being able to discover the truth on anything is a feature not a bug.
“normalizing the fluctuating economic data”
************
“A statistical time trend data adjustment.”
Whatever it takes to torture the real data.
If a Republican gets elected president in 2024 the employment legerdemain will immediately cease.
Official government statistics are nothing more than outright propaganda. And have been for decades. Except they are getting more blatant in their Fabrications.
Propaganda.
We don’t have government we have propaganda. Just another indicator of Fascism.
As our population becomes less educated in the relevant fields, the lies and statistics can grow in scope.
If you’ll excuse me, I have my increased to 25g chocolate to enjoy.
We don’t have government we have propaganda.
************
An honest media, if we had one, would put a swift end to this.
The Fourth Estate has become a Fifth Column.
Fun-with-numbers to help Biden brag about the economy in the SOTU. Remember, too, inflation reduced a whole 0.01% in December.
In the next monthly jobs report, we will likely see an ‘adjust down’ report.
Recall there were reports a few months ago that Biden created a million new jobs only to have that number ‘adjusted down’ to around 150,000.
This SOTU will be nothing more than Biden patting himself on the back. The fact-checkers will be given the evening off so as not to dampen the mood.
The Biden yokels mum why the last time the GDP was this low was in 1932.
Biden chimps tossing out number on every he screws up.
Joey is going to lie his arse off about everything. If Nanzi was Speaker she would tear up Joeys’s speech. GOP hasn’t the stones to repay in kind.
Fake Report! The BLS Just Released a Fake Report as Political Elites Fear a Recession is Imminent
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZMdM4KkVr8&ab_channel=StevenVanMetre
The Fake Payrolls Report is Hiding the Truth that the Economy is About to Break
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6BEfJR8-B4&ab_channel=StevenVanMetre
most understand their bills vs paycheck
Same folks who told us that it was Russian Interference and that there was NO SUCH thing as a Laptop from Hell?
My dad had a Masters in math. Took a lot of statistics.
He always said there are three types of lies:
Lies
Damned lies
And statistics
It depends on one’s locality, but energy costs have gone way up for many.
I think I recall reading CC debt is at, or near, and all time high.
Numerous issues are not pointing in a good direction.
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