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US spy challenge offers $250k to those who can accurately forecast future events
The Telegraph ^ | 05/18/2019 | Ben Riley-Smith

Posted on 05/18/2019 11:17:20 AM PDT by aimhigh

American spy chiefs are offering $250,000 in prize money for a competition that will test how successfully someone can predict future unknowns such as political election results or missile tests.

The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity [IARPA], which sits within the office of America’s top intelligence official, is behind the challenge, which is designed to improve forecasting techniques.

Participants will be asked more than 300 questions about the outcomes of various issues across a nine-month period. The winner will collect $153,000, with smaller prizes to runner-ups.

Sample questions listed include “Which political party will win the most seats during the Polish Parliamentary Election?” and ”What will be the daily closing price of gold in June 2019 in USD?”

(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...


TOPICS: Government
KEYWORDS: forecast; futureevents; prediction; predictions; probabilities; spy; statistics
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Calling all prophets.
1 posted on 05/18/2019 11:17:20 AM PDT by aimhigh
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To: aimhigh

The men who stare at goats.


2 posted on 05/18/2019 11:21:24 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Capitalism produces EVERYTHING Socialists/Communists/Democratic-Socialists wish to "redistribute.")
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To: aimhigh

3 posted on 05/18/2019 11:21:27 AM PDT by gaijin
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To: aimhigh

Hi.

Interesting post.

Since the FBI, CIA and NSA monitors this forum, here’s my offer.

I’ll do it for expenses only. Donate my winnings to the 2020 Trump campaign.

5.56mm


4 posted on 05/18/2019 11:22:58 AM PDT by M Kehoe (DRAIN THE SWAMP! BUILD THE WALL!)
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To: aimhigh

Anyone who can truly see the future is going to make a fortune in the market and not bother with any of this.


5 posted on 05/18/2019 11:23:43 AM PDT by Innovative
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To: Innovative

Anyone who can truly see the future would see that the US Spy Industry would imprison and use you like a commodity, like an asset, and your life would be over.


6 posted on 05/18/2019 11:26:53 AM PDT by Lazamataz (McCain's passing ended up being + 2 net Republican Senators. Him, and Lindsey Graham.)
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To: aimhigh

As a statistics expert, I know this is foolish. Just by luck, someone will do exceptionally well. But, that will mean nothing.


7 posted on 05/18/2019 11:30:42 AM PDT by David in Cal
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To: aimhigh

The real winners won’t “win the prize” and we will never see their names.


8 posted on 05/18/2019 11:31:20 AM PDT by StolarStorm
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To: aimhigh

Democrats will progressively pull crazier ideas out of their a$$ to pander to any group except white males. Where do I collect?


9 posted on 05/18/2019 11:36:21 AM PDT by ConservaTexan (February 6, 1911/June 14, 1946)
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To: aimhigh

Sounds like fun and a good way to find out what the spooks are worried about.

https://www.iarpa.gov/challenges/gfchallenge2.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top#prizes


10 posted on 05/18/2019 11:44:04 AM PDT by VanShuyten ("...that all the donkeys were dead. I know nothing as to the fate of the less valuable animals.")
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To: aimhigh

11 posted on 05/18/2019 11:57:33 AM PDT by mowowie
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To: aimhigh
It's all mine !



well that's a fine how do you do.
12 posted on 05/18/2019 11:58:15 AM PDT by stylin19a (2016 - Best.Election.Of.All.Times.Ever.In.The.History.Of.Ever)
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To: aimhigh

Anybody else out there getting tired of our intel community constantly wasting money on creepy BS? They are way past detecting the Jap fleet headed for Pearl Harbor. Now they are merely an instrument of controlling the American people and suppressing any thought that opposes globalism.

Most of their secrecy is not protecting launch codes and names of spies. It is to hide their activities from the American people because they know they are doing things a large majority disapprove of.

We have become the USSR, with better consumer goods.


13 posted on 05/18/2019 12:00:56 PM PDT by DesertRhino (Dog is man's best friend, and moslems hate dogs. Add that up. ....)
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To: VanShuyten

Sounds like a way to get people moving.


14 posted on 05/18/2019 12:05:02 PM PDT by mylife (The Roar Of The Masses Could Be Farts)
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We have known for millenia, money and sex make people bite.

Fame, power ect.

A good spook does not bite, he watches and waits.


15 posted on 05/18/2019 12:09:16 PM PDT by mylife (The Roar Of The Masses Could Be Farts)
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To: aimhigh

So this competition is not open to the National Weather Service?

They are a non-prophet organization...


16 posted on 05/18/2019 12:14:41 PM PDT by Laslo Fripp (The Sybil of Free Republic)
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Also blows a lot of smoke


17 posted on 05/18/2019 12:16:28 PM PDT by mylife (The Roar Of The Masses Could Be Farts)
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To: aimhigh
Related to this, I was reading something, I think in Forbes, about predictive markets for various events. You've probably heard about this for things like presidential elections. Like you win $1 if Trump wins the election, and in Sept 2016, that option was selling for 30 some cents.

Anyway, expanding beyond that, it is a way for people in the know, to put their money where their mouth is. It can be for all sorts of stuff, that will help people make good decisions in advertising and investing. And so decision makers can see what people in the know are willing to put their money on.

It can be things like will Verizon launch 5G service in Peoria, IL by 2020, will GM re-open a car plant in Ohio in 2019, to will the Tampa Rays move to Charlotte by 2021. It's a way for people in the know to tip their hands about business decisions.

18 posted on 05/18/2019 12:20:01 PM PDT by Pappy Smear
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To: VanShuyten

bkmrk


19 posted on 05/18/2019 12:24:19 PM PDT by null and void (The press is always lying. When they aren't actively lying, they are actively concealing the truth.)
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To: aimhigh
"... $250k to those who can accurately forecast future events"

Absurd!

Anyone who can do this should be paid at least $1,000,000,000... Otherwise the person will do even better quietly using (over time) his own skill set for himself...

20 posted on 05/18/2019 12:24:40 PM PDT by SuperLuminal (Where is Sam Adams now that we desperately need him)
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