Posted on 09/07/2016 9:44:37 AM PDT by LS
New polls:
Arizona (WaCompost) Trump 39, Cankles 37 (There is a poll today showing this one point. I don't believe it. We had a poll here in AZ about two weeks before the primary showing McCain up over Kelli Ward by more than 40 (!!) and he won by only 13. That's a huge MOE. Every cycle we hear that "Arizona is in play," and it never is.
Colorado (WaCompost) 37/37 tie
Florida (Rasmussen) Trump 44, Cankles 37 (second poll today having Trump up in FL, previous poll Trump +1, avg. 3+)
South Carolina (First Tuesday) Trump 50, Cankles 38 Minion won SC by 10.8 so Trump running ahead of Minion.
Online WP/Survey Monkey shows Trump with 7 point lead. According to story, both polls show Trump’s lead “widening.”
New Hampshire (Emerson) Cankles 42, Trump 37 Emerson: Cankles 46, Trump 41
Maine (ECPS/Emerson) Cankles 44, Trump 35
Missouri (Remington) Trump 47 Cankles 38 (7% shift in a month)
Rhode Island (PPNumbers) Cankles 44 Trump 41 (!!)
New Jersey (PPNumbers) Cankles 47 Trump 43
Trump down big, as would be expected, in MA, VT, and now CT (15), which was very close in earlier poll.
Other Emerson polls have Cankles up in IA by 2, PA by 5.
She may have the cash BUT remember JEB!
Easy money if you want it. :)
I don’t believe the AZ poll at all.
They are probably too stoned to vote/complete a ballot.
Believe me, if I had it, I’d bet it.
The poll I had in mind had McCain up 80 to something.
I think Trump is up in NV, up or tied in PA.
We need NV, and a combo of OH/FL/IA/VA/PA.
More optimistic this week about VA, but it’s not as sure as pre-Obama.
I agree with LS on this as an indicator of political support. It might be a good measure of the enthusiasm of his core supporters but it doesn’t really measure the breadth of his support. Wider lukewarm support can beat narrow enthusiastic support.
can we lose NV, PA, Iowa, VA and still win?
I didn’t see it on the web. It’s a positive Trump ad that contrasts against Hillary. 9 news Denver “truth tests” the ad here.
http://www.9news.com/news/local/politics/truth-test-trumps-first-colorado-tv-ad/314788641
When has ‘lukewarm’ support beaten anything? Lukewarm support in a Super Bowl? Lukewarm support in an election doesn’t work, unless there is a lot of voter fraud...
We won’t have that in this election: American Voters are for Trump, enthusiasm win events, elections, do you see any in the Hillary camp???
All I know is that last night, they actually ran a “news” reports, in San Antonio, Texas, that showed Hillary was ahead of Trump, in TEXAS by 4 or 5 points!
I mean, they didn’t make up such BS when Barrack “the messiah” Obama was running for President.
You want to talk about complete BS?!?! That poll, along with ALL the rest shouldn’t be taken with or without salt - they are BU!!SH!T - PERIOD!!
Thanks
Lukewarm support has won more elections than wild-eyed enthusiasm. It helps to have both, but Nixon, Bush in 04, Clinton in 92-—I could name dozens of elections where people on the fence more or less said “what the heck” as opposed to “I love this guy!”
I think the point is about the quality of his crowds. They are enthusiastic. Hillary’s, not so much. Plus I am hearing that there is a surge in first time (or first time in many years) voters. I believe these are the people who sat out the last few elections because they had no interest in Mittens or Grumpy. We will see.
I understand. Yes, Ravi and I have looked a very heavy D to R shifts in FL, NC, IA, and OH (enough in most cases, by themselves to swing the election from 2012).
My point is that I’d rather win by one “lukewarm” voter than lose by 10,000 “enthusiastic” voters.
I would characterize the support of George McGovern in 1972 as small but enthusiastic and Richard Nixon's support as large but unenthusiastic. Of course, Nixon won in a landslide. A lot of Republicans were leery about Nixon as evidence was starting to emerge that he was not very honest but voted for him anyway. Why? George McGovern was seen by most as a fringe candidate, unqualified to hold the highest office in the land.
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