Summary of recent polls (me)

various polling organizations | 9/7/2016 | LS

[LS]

New polls:

Arizona (WaCompost) Trump 39, Cankles 37 (There is a poll today showing this one point. I don't believe it. We had a poll here in AZ about two weeks before the primary showing McCain up over Kelli Ward by more than 40 (!!) and he won by only 13. That's a huge MOE. Every cycle we hear that "Arizona is in play," and it never is.

Colorado (WaCompost) 37/37 tie

Florida (Rasmussen) Trump 44, Cankles 37 (second poll today having Trump up in FL, previous poll Trump +1, avg. 3+)

South Carolina (First Tuesday) Trump 50, Cankles 38 Minion won SC by 10.8 so Trump running ahead of Minion.

Online WP/Survey Monkey shows Trump with 7 point lead. According to story, both polls show Trump’s lead “widening.”

New Hampshire (Emerson) Cankles 42, Trump 37 Emerson: Cankles 46, Trump 41

Maine (ECPS/Emerson) Cankles 44, Trump 35

Missouri (Remington) Trump 47 Cankles 38 (7% shift in a month)

Rhode Island (PPNumbers) Cankles 44 Trump 41 (!!)

New Jersey (PPNumbers) Cankles 47 Trump 43

Trump down big, as would be expected, in MA, VT, and now CT (15), which was very close in earlier poll.

Other Emerson polls have Cankles up in IA by 2, PA by 5.

[Yashcheritsiy]

Every cycle we hear that "Arizona is in play," and it never is.

If Arizona wasn't "in play," then how would the media convince the campaigns to spend big $$$ on media buys there?

[Jet Jaguar]

Bump

[Red Steel]

Trump has started running his ads in Colorado.

[HarleyLady27]

I look at the crowds that Trump has pulled in with his rallies and speeches...there are thousands and thousands of people, you can’t tell me that the polls are truthful, when you hear all the time the ‘tremendous’ amount of support Hillary has, where? I haven’t seen anyone at her rallies except SS, camera people, media and her health team...

Nope, the crowds that Trump and even Pence now are pulling in are telling me that Trump/Pence are going to the Oval Office...

[Ravi]

Excellent. Important to note in Maine poll by Emerson, Trump winning CD2 by 5 points. If that holds, he gets that 1 electoral vote for that district.

[LS]

I will play devil’s advocate: if you combined ALL the attendees in all the Trump events, you’d have about 1 million people, many of them “repeat offenders” who have attended more than one event.

We need about 59m-60m to win (I think 59m wins pretty decisively given Johnson/Stein, but just for argument . . . .)

So that leaves you about 58m short.

[hoosiermama]

Thanks for report

[gleeaikin]

What influence would the marijuana vote be having on the overall vote? It might bring out more of the young vote.

[RoseofTexas]

Don’t know if it’s true, but I do know the pickle *itch from hell has an endless pile of cash at her disposal! And she does have a Whole bunch of sugar daddies out there who are billionaires contributing to her campaign slush fund! Don’t think for one minute the campaign cap law applies to her ...billionaires are pouring money into her campaign fund ..be it legal or not ...rules be damn..remember she had gotten away with murder literally!

[hoosiermama]

So you have video links to the ads. Just curious to see what they look like as we in IN will never see them

[HarleyLady27]

I see what your saying, but I still say, and especially now since Trump went to Detroit, that he still is way over Clinton...

I see young, old, women, men, black, white, brown, Asian, Latinas, Latinos, vets active, vets retired, you can't have that type of following and these types of crowds and not win by a landslide, it just doesn't happen...

What does happen, however, is the Home Land Security people taking over the voting, this is Voter Fraud to perfection in my opinion...this is the ONLY way that Hillary will win, that's why I say, Trump is going to win in a landslide, by doing that, they cannot say ‘voter fraud’...and have the proof of the thousands and thousands of people to back it up...

On top of that he just received 88 Generals to support him, he has the NRA support where millions of Americans have weapons; he has the NASCAR endorsement and that carries thousands of people; he has the Labor people (not the bosses who are minute) but the people that actually do the work; he has the Bikers for Trump (and I am one of them, and there are thousands of us) plus he has the Truckers (also was a trucker and know a lot of them that are voting for Trump)

Nope, polls lie, they don't see the whole picture, American Voters do...that is what is going to create this ‘landslide’ election for Trump: The American people are running it, not the politicians, special interest groups, CFR; TTP and the rest of the thieves in the world...

[lodi90]

It’s going to be close, IMO. We need all hands on deck.

[mainerforglobalwarming]

Great news.

[LS]

A lot, unfortunately.

[LS]

I don’t think it will be that close. I think pop vote will be Trump by 3-4m depending on the draw of Johnson/Stein. I still think he gets 300-310 electoral votes.

[RoosterRedux]

But if you add up all the people at the Hillary events, you'd have about 150 (not including staff, press, and ambulance drivers).;-)

[dp0622]

So can we afford NV and PA and still win?

THRILLED about NJ but they’re not dependable. Down 4 is GREAT though.

what’s up with NY.

[Red Steel]

showing McCain up over Kelli Ward by more than 40 (!!) and he won by only 13. That's a huge MOE. Every cycle we hear that "Arizona is in play," and it never is.

Huge is right. Off by 27% = polling failure. This is so bad it really shows the bias of lying pollsters trying to influence an election.

[HarleyLady27]

...and that’s all the events she has held total count: 150....I agree RoosterRedux...that makes sense!!!...