Posted on 07/08/2016 11:35:37 AM PDT by LS
Traditional pollsters and polidiot pundits---which by definition includes every GOPe/neverTrump blogger ever to see a birth canal---are about to get another election badly, badly wrong.
As if the Brexit poll (final Independent was off by a mere 14 points) and the seven straight misses by Nate Silver and the stunning 22-point error on the Democrat primary race in Michigan . . . well, you'd think somewhere someone would say, "Hold on. Let's reconsider our assumptions."
Pew has a survey Strong Interest in Campaign showing that more than 70% of Americans are very engaged in this election. Of course, Pew shows no one likes either candidate, but that's hogwash. If you don't like any flavor in the ice cream shop, you don't go. You don't read their ads, and you sure don't pay attention.
No, this election is lining up as a very, very big turnout. GOP turnout this season set records, and was up huge over Romney's in 2012---62%---and 36% higher than the previous record turnout against Zero in 2008. All totaled, GOP candidates got 4 million more primary votes than Dems. Meanwhile, according to Breitbart Democrat turnout is down big---almost 20%.
That's GOP up 36%, Dems down 20%, in a race where 72% of the people are already really, really paying attention.
But wait, it gets better for Trump: Rasmussen today shows Trump holding a shocking 20 point lead (!!) among Independents. That is a whopping 15 points higher than Minion Romney had in 2012, when he supposedly was "doing well" with Indies.
These three factors: Massive voter interest, monster GOP turnout/much lower Dem turnout, and a gigantic lead among independents all suggest that Conservative Treehouse is correct in its estimates that Trump will get over 70 million votes and win an big electoral college victory. (Technically, you can 't have a "landslide" without NY, CA, and IL, but Trump will carry most of the other states Obama carried in 2012).
Finally, all elections are about hope or fear (or, if you're on Wall Street, greed and fear). In 2008, Obama tapped into the hope angle: millions of white Americans, hoping to "put racism behind us," voted for a black president whom they most likely disagreed with on most issues. After seven years, it's clear Obama had no intention of burying racism. Quite the contrary, he has exploited it and fanned it. The Dallas shootings are just one more indicator that Obama and the Democrats have been a disaster for the country, and their destruction of the nation has been deliberate. Fear of our nation drifting into the toilet will also work to Trump's advantage as it did Nixon's in 1968 and Reagan's in 1980.
Let's pray we survive long enough to have another election.
As if the Brexit poll (final Independent was off by a mere 14 points) and the seven straight misses by Nate Silver and the stunning 22-point error on the Democrat primary race in Michigan . . . well, you'd think somewhere someone would say, "Hold on. Let's reconsider our assumptions."
Pew has a survey Strong Interest in Campaign showing that more than 70% of Americans are very engaged in this election. Of course, Pew shows no one likes either candidate, but that's hogwash. If you don't like any flavor in the ice cream shop, you don't go. You don't read their ads, and you sure don't pay attention.
No, this election is lining up as a very, very big turnout. GOP turnout this season set records, and was up huge over Romney's in 2012---62%---and 36% higher than the previous record turnout against Zero in 2008. All totaled, GOP candidates got 4 million more primary votes than Dems. Meanwhile, according to Breitbart Democrat turnout is down big---almost 20%.
That's GOP up 36%, Dems down 20%, in a race where 72% of the people are already really, really paying attention.
But wait, it gets better for Trump: Rasmussen today shows Trump holding a shocking 20 point lead (!!) among Independents. That is a whopping 15 points higher than Minion Romney had in 2012, when he supposedly was "doing well" with Indies.
I hope so. Can’t rest
I think you are right. When interest in the campaign is strong, people are paying attention, and that can NOT be good for Hillary.
Ditto the lackluster Dem turnout. It’s why she is already floating the Free College scam. And why Obama is letting Black Lives Matter run amok. Gotta fire up the DemBot voters somehow.
Won’t the GOP establishment in Washington be so disappointed.
They can pound sand.
I celebrate your statistical data, and join in your prayer.
I once read a study that showed that democrat turnout is nearly a constant.
So each election swing on gop turnout. If there is a large turnout, GOP wins.
If 70% vote- it will be historic and a landslide of epic proportions. But they better start warning abot voter fraud NOW.
It should be obvious to everyone by now that this country is well passed the stage where one man can save it.
Thank you. Great analysis—I wish I could up-vote this post a thousand times.
Wow! It worked. You learn fast. You’re welcome!
Great news Bump
Sundance has projected a 73M republican turnout.
Quote:
“It should be obvious to everyone by now that this country is well passed the stage where one man can save it.”
If Trump empties the Fed bureaucracy of Leftists in State, the Pentagon, EPA, FBI, etc., we have a chance.
I hope we are not being rope-a-doped. On election night 2012 I felt like my dog had just died and someone had punched me in the gut, mouth and eye.
Do not overlook the massive influx of Third World parasites. There is no way to check whether or not they are being registered to vote, they are and will swing the election.
I think Obama, Clintoon and their comrades in the state controlled media and on “college campuses” across the country took a huge hit last night. The hatred and the nonsensical heated rhetoric about “white privilege” has got to stop. They need to stop graduating all of the snowflakes who have been programmed with hate for America and “white people”. They brought this terrorist attack to Dallas and now some of America’s finest have been murdered. NRA and gun owners are not the problem here. It’s only a distraction used by “democrats” in order to hide what they, the “democrats” are doing. The real problem is the hatred of America and Caucasian people being spewed by all of those mentioned above.
Current events are Trump’s running mate.
I believe Hillary’s peak support is somewhere around 46%. After that IMO you will see her numbers stay the same and Trump’s continue to rise. He is on track to win big.
The next Presidents job will be to manage the crisis and define shat kind country we live after all the broken pieces picked up and patched back together
I will go on the record (understanding that 123 days is several lifetimes in politics and my view can change dramatically) with my predictions.
If Clinton is the Democrat Party nominee, she will carry:
Washington, D.C.
Massachussets
Maryland
Minnesota
Hawaii
Oregon
Illinois
That is all. This will be a ‘72 level wipeout.
Trump is the most aggressive, relentless, and bombastic person in the modern era of Presidential politics, and he is amazingly good at getting rhetoric down to sound bites and 144 character messages. That is vital for messaging to LIV in the internet age.
You just need to look at the number of people in the wagon versus those pulling the wagon. The wagon riders give the Dims and Progs 45% of the vote. The other candidate starts at 38%. No matter how you size it up IF Trump wins (please do not conflate TRUMNOTINEVITABLE with NEVERTRUMP) it will be by a small margin.
There is a fine line to draw between discouraging Trump turnout by saying he cannot win and getting lackadaisical by saying he will win.
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