You just need to look at the number of people in the wagon versus those pulling the wagon. The wagon riders give the Dims and Progs 45% of the vote. The other candidate starts at 38%. No matter how you size it up IF Trump wins (please do not conflate TRUMNOTINEVITABLE with NEVERTRUMP) it will be by a small margin.
There is a fine line to draw between discouraging Trump turnout by saying he cannot win and getting lackadaisical by saying he will win.
1) no one is “lacksadaisical”
2) even many in the wagon really don’t want to be there, especially if they see the wagon heading over a cliff.