As if the Brexit poll (final Independent was off by a mere 14 points) and the seven straight misses by Nate Silver and the stunning 22-point error on the Democrat primary race in Michigan . . . well, you'd think somewhere someone would say, "Hold on. Let's reconsider our assumptions."
Pew has a survey Strong Interest in Campaign showing that more than 70% of Americans are very engaged in this election. Of course, Pew shows no one likes either candidate, but that's hogwash. If you don't like any flavor in the ice cream shop, you don't go. You don't read their ads, and you sure don't pay attention.
No, this election is lining up as a very, very big turnout. GOP turnout this season set records, and was up huge over Romney's in 2012---62%---and 36% higher than the previous record turnout against Zero in 2008. All totaled, GOP candidates got 4 million more primary votes than Dems. Meanwhile, according to Breitbart Democrat turnout is down big---almost 20%.
That's GOP up 36%, Dems down 20%, in a race where 72% of the people are already really, really paying attention.
But wait, it gets better for Trump: Rasmussen today shows Trump holding a shocking 20 point lead (!!) among Independents. That is a whopping 15 points higher than Minion Romney had in 2012, when he supposedly was "doing well" with Indies.
I hope so. Can’t rest
I think you are right. When interest in the campaign is strong, people are paying attention, and that can NOT be good for Hillary.
Ditto the lackluster Dem turnout. It’s why she is already floating the Free College scam. And why Obama is letting Black Lives Matter run amok. Gotta fire up the DemBot voters somehow.
Won’t the GOP establishment in Washington be so disappointed.
They can pound sand.
I celebrate your statistical data, and join in your prayer.
I once read a study that showed that democrat turnout is nearly a constant.
So each election swing on gop turnout. If there is a large turnout, GOP wins.
If 70% vote- it will be historic and a landslide of epic proportions. But they better start warning abot voter fraud NOW.
It should be obvious to everyone by now that this country is well passed the stage where one man can save it.
Thank you. Great analysis—I wish I could up-vote this post a thousand times.
Wow! It worked. You learn fast. You’re welcome!
Great news Bump
Sundance has projected a 73M republican turnout.
Do not overlook the massive influx of Third World parasites. There is no way to check whether or not they are being registered to vote, they are and will swing the election.
I think Obama, Clintoon and their comrades in the state controlled media and on “college campuses” across the country took a huge hit last night. The hatred and the nonsensical heated rhetoric about “white privilege” has got to stop. They need to stop graduating all of the snowflakes who have been programmed with hate for America and “white people”. They brought this terrorist attack to Dallas and now some of America’s finest have been murdered. NRA and gun owners are not the problem here. It’s only a distraction used by “democrats” in order to hide what they, the “democrats” are doing. The real problem is the hatred of America and Caucasian people being spewed by all of those mentioned above.
Current events are Trump’s running mate.
I believe Hillary’s peak support is somewhere around 46%. After that IMO you will see her numbers stay the same and Trump’s continue to rise. He is on track to win big.
I will go on the record (understanding that 123 days is several lifetimes in politics and my view can change dramatically) with my predictions.
If Clinton is the Democrat Party nominee, she will carry:
Washington, D.C.
Massachussets
Maryland
Minnesota
Hawaii
Oregon
Illinois
That is all. This will be a ‘72 level wipeout.
Trump is the most aggressive, relentless, and bombastic person in the modern era of Presidential politics, and he is amazingly good at getting rhetoric down to sound bites and 144 character messages. That is vital for messaging to LIV in the internet age.
You just need to look at the number of people in the wagon versus those pulling the wagon. The wagon riders give the Dims and Progs 45% of the vote. The other candidate starts at 38%. No matter how you size it up IF Trump wins (please do not conflate TRUMNOTINEVITABLE with NEVERTRUMP) it will be by a small margin.
There is a fine line to draw between discouraging Trump turnout by saying he cannot win and getting lackadaisical by saying he will win.
I also concur that the almighty prognosticators and pollsters are WAY OFF and disengaged from metrics that can't be gauged.
There appear to be two ways I see Trump failing to beat a sloppy, distrusted, despised Hillary:
1) Monumental digital Voter Fraud.
2) Declaration of Martial Law.
After what happened last night Donald Trump better become President..The NeverTrump people, get off your behinds and vote for Donald Trump..you dont like him, TOUGH NOODLES..guess what, there have been plenty of GOP candidates I didnt like and I voted for them anyway for the better of our country. Would they rather have the kind of garbage we saw last night, is that who they want running our country, Hillary Clinton, Obama, Holder, Lynch, BLM, they are all intertwined with ISIS, notice at BLM protests they always show up with ISIS and Pro Palestinian flags..they are all ONE. For our countries SURVIVAL vote for Trump please or else say goodbye to America
-PJ
In the beginning was the plan.
And then came the assumptions.
And the assumptions were without form.
And the plan was without substance.
And darkness was upon the face of the workers.
And they spoke among themselves saying,
“It is a crock of shit and it stinketh.”
And the workers went unto their supervisors and said,
“It is a pale of dung and none may abide the odor thereof.”
And the supervisor went unto their managers and said,
“It is a container of excrement and it is very strong, such that none may abide by it.”
And the managers went unto their directors, saying,
“It is a vessel of fertilizer, and none may abide its strength.”
And the directors spoke among themselves, saying to one another,
“It contains that which aids plant growth and it is very strong.”
And the directors went unto the vice presidents, saying unto them,
“It promotes growth and is very powerful.”
And the vice presidents went unto the president, saying unto him,
“The new plan will promote the growth and vigor of the company, with powerful effects.”
And the president looked upon the plan and saw that it was good.
And the plan became policy.
This is how shit happens.