Posted on 02/21/2016 12:18:59 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
LAS VEGAS - It's going to be a long ride.
Rather than anointing a presumptive nominee, the early voting states have narrowed the Republican primary to a three-man race heading into Tuesday's Nevada Caucuses and the 12-state delegate bonanza on March 1.
Donald Trump leads nationally and in most state polls, but both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are armed with the rationales and the resources to stay in the race through at least March, if not right up to the Republican National Convention in July.
Despite Trump's polling lead, there are significant obstacles to his running away with the nomination in the coming weeks. With Rubio buoyed by momentum, Nevada's organizing-heavy caucuses set for Tuesday, and the first half of March weighted toward states where Cruz is poised to finish strongly, there is little space for Trump to translate that lead into a certain nomination in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, Rubio's strength makes him the likely standard-bearer of center-right Republicans and their deep-pocketed backers and can only increase the pressure for Jeb Bush to bow out of the race - freeing resources for the Florida senator and cleaning up a cluttered field before the real action begins.
"Until it clears out, it's an advantage for Trump," said one person close to the New York billionaire.
The results so far have only been a prelude. Including South Carolina, only 4 percent of delegates have been awarded up to this point, and Trump has won only a plurality. Heading into Saturday, Trump had won 17 of the 53 delegates awarded in Iowa and New Hampshire, less than a third. Cruz had won 11 and Rubio 10.
On paper, the next three weeks of contests favor Cruz, a feature of the schedule that will prevent Rubio from totally capitalizing on any momentum he gains coming out of South Carolina.
Tuesday's caucuses in Nevada will be only a blip - bringing the delegates awarded to 5 percent of the total - but one that could deprive Trump of momentum if he is out-organized here as he was in the first caucus state, Iowa.
"Nevada is basically a wash. Nobody will care about it unless Trump doesn't win," said a Trump campaign insider.
On March 1, 12 states with a combined total of 588 delegates - nearly a third of the total - will get their turn. Delegate totals on that day are titled heavily towards the six Southern states, where Cruz and the outside groups supporting him are better organized than their rivals. That includes March 1's biggest prize, Cruz's home state of Texas, which awards 152 delegates. Kansas, Kentucky and Louisiana, three Cruz-friendly states with a combined 132 delegates to award, will vote four days later on March 5.
Winner-take-all states do not begin voting until March 15.
Despite favorable conditions in South Carolina - his campaign's director there is a former majority leader of the state's House of Representatives and for much of the race he enjoyed 20-point polling leads there - Trump did not achieve the blowout victory that he did in New Hampshire.
Trump also under-performed in Iowa, the only caucus state to have voted so far.
Winner-take-all states do not begin voting until March 15, by which point more than 40 percent of delegates will have already been awarded. Both Ohio, with its 63 delegates and Florida with its 99 will vote that day - and the prospect of John Kasich hanging in long enough to capture his home state will only further muddle the delegate math.
Deeper into the map, major prizes like 95-delegate New York, which votes on April 19, and 172-delegate California, which votes on the last day of primary contests on June 7, will award delegates by congressional district.
Done.
Now we will see if Rush is right: If a real conservative runs he will win.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/SC-R
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R
Is there any proof Trump wants to be president?
Is the Pope Catholic?
Well, some folks are beginning to doubt that the Pope is Catholic, but we still have “Does a bear defecate in the woods?”
You seem to enjoy posting stupid trash type articles. Trump did damn well considering he has no Super PAC’s like Cruz and Rubio.
Good lord lady
U never give it up do u?
So now you support Trump?
Why should she? To make things less uncomfortable for you?
Politico, the mouthpiece of the GOP establishment, is delusional.
They’ve belittled Trump for months and underestimated him.
Rubio is a weak reed for them to hang their hope of halting the Trump juggernaut.
Facing reality isn’t their strong suit.
: )
The Pope is a socialist and Trump is a promoter and benefactor of the "prosperity gospel" church.
Trump's Evangelical connection:
Megachurch Pastor Paula White [recently/currently Mrs. Journey Rocker Jonathan Cain]
August 30, 2015: Trump Hosts Televangelists Who Fleece Their Flocks
..."Paula White, who hosts a TV show called Paula White Today on The Word Network and pastors New Destiny Christian Center in Apopka, Florida… took the helm at that church after its former shepherd died of a heroin and cocaine overdose.
Trump and White have been friends for years, which makes sense because they have a lot in common. In addition to having their own popular TV shows, they're on their third marriage-Trump's to former model Melania Trump, and White's to the keyboardist for Journey.
Trump has been a guest on her programming numerous times, and they seem to be big fans of each other. He's called her "a beautiful person, both inside and out," and recommended that viewers read her book You're All That: Understanding God's Design For Your Life so they would "be ready for great success." White has compared him to "a diamond that reveals a new facet each time it is turned in the light," ..
White, like Trump, is also a big fan of cash. She's typically characterized as a proponent of the prosperity gospel-a theologically suspect approach to Christianity whereby pastors (often before huge congregations or on TV broadcasts) tell listeners that God wants them to become very wealthy, and that if they just give "a seed" to said pastors' ministries, they'll reap great financial returns and be #blessed. White's e-store features a sermon called "Why God Wants You Wealthy." Of course, Donald Trump wants people to be rich as well, which is why White once offered her viewers-for a ministry contribution of $25-a copy of Trump's book Why We Want You to Be Rich. Everyone wants you to be rich! Praise the Lord!
White's website has....interesting deals. One (your correspondent's personal favorite) is called the "2015 Atonement Package."...
I can see Rubio getting the nomination.
Rush will get with Trump soon enough.
well, they're winning that fight...Hitlery here comes the witch.
Lol
The Trump haters are crawling back slowly
Hysterical
Tell me
Will you support Rubio against Trump?
Trust me....the money and FOX is gonna turn on some Rubio love
Ted took an arrow tonight between the shoulder blades
Despite the usual rancor for Freepers
The run of the mill Cruz supporter will in the end support Trump over Rubio
And if Ted should go insane and endorse Rubio....they will not follow him
Why?
Immigration
Good luck with all that
His amnesty stand hurts him.
If he wasn’t an Open Borders candidate, he could be formidable.
Saying you want millions of illegals to be given a path to citizenship isn’t a ticket to the White House.
Keep up the good work. It ain’t over until the smart, researching lady sings. :)
Yep
Rubio killed his career with GO8
But with so much GOPe on their knees around him he doesn’t realize it yet
So, now Donald Trump has 67 of the 103 delegates awarded in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Cruz still has 11 and Rubio still has 10. So Trump now has 65% of the delegates, after taking all delegates in a state that is only “winner-take-all” if you win every Congressional district.
The really scary thing is that if Donald Trump can find a court that interprets “natural-born citizen” to be “born of two parents, both who were citizens when you were born”, he eliminates both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio!
Well, the Nevada Republican caucus is only 3 days away, so we won’t have long to find out if America is going to continue to pick the not-real conservative.
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