Posted on 08/12/2015 2:31:19 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
This is, I believe, the first poll of the GOP race since the debate conducted by a major news network using traditional phone calls instead of the Internet, so if you’re looking for reasons to give this one extra credence, there you go.
What’s the biggest story here? Trump’s rise? Ben Carson’s surprising surge, given his low-key debate performance? Or the decline of Scott Walker?
CNN hasn’t polled Iowa recently so there’s no yardstick to measure if Trump gained or lost points since the debate, but most of the other pollsters who’ve surveyed the state lately had him between 17 and 19 points. (Gravis, an apparent outlier, had him at 31.) It may be that he’s picked up a few percent there. Not hard to see why either. Check this out:
That’s not the only metric where Trump does exceptionally well — he also crushes the field when asked who’d do best at handling the economy and terrorism — but if you think “no more business as usual” is the most animating theme among the GOP electorate right now, go figure that the least orthodox pol in the field is the top choice. In fact, as you can see above, three of the top five candidates right now are people who’ve never held office before. Fiorina has cracked the top tier thanks to her excellence in the 5 p.m. debate while Carson has now seemingly emerged as the social-con favorite. That’s less surprising than it might seem at first: Not only were his numbers the second-most improved (behind Fiorina) across several polls after the debate, but when Suffolk asked Iowans a few days ago which moments they remember most vividly from the event, Carson was all over the top of the charts.
If you’re hellbent on finding a candidate from outside the political class and you don’t like Trump because he’s not conservative enough or because he’s too … Trump-y, you’ve got Carson as your protest vote. That’s terrible news for fans of Ted Cruz, who’ve been waiting for Scott Walker to fall off the top of the polls in Iowa only to find now that there’s a double whammy ahead of them. Cruz can’t out-populist Trump and he can’t out-outsider Carson. He’s got to bide his time and hope that gradually Carson, Huckabee, and Walker will all fade, leaving him the clear choice for social conservatives there.
As for Walker, the bad poll news continues. He lost the most ground of anyone at the debate across various polls this week and now he’s slipped to single digits in Iowa, a state where he was polling at around 20 percent and leading the field less than a month ago. Trumpmania and, to a lesser extent, Carsonmania have hurt him, and if Cruz has a breakout debate performance in him (as pretty much everyone assumes), he could end up chasing Cruzmania before too long. His decline is the biggest story of this poll, I think, just because he’s the only top-tier candidate for whom Iowa is a must-win. He was born there, he leads a midwestern state, he’s got sterling evangelical credentials — he should be the favorite. If he disappoints, what other early states does he win?
Exit question: Didn’t Ron Paul take 21 percent of the vote in the Iowa caucuses three years ago? Where’s the “rEVOLution” right now for Rand, who’s limping along with five percent?
Don’t look behind you, Scott.
Carson would be good as Surgeon General or as head of CMS.
They are so manipulating the polls to drive a narrative. Why has not candidate released any internal polls?
Carson could also clean up the VA. But I’d put someone in there with large organization management experience.
Wow! Go Ben Carson.
He gets little attention from the liberal media (imagine what they would say if a conservative outfit, of which faux news is not one, ignored a black man) and still rockets ahead.
I like him. And I like Bobby Jindal too.
I think the voters are saying “we’re sick of politicians”.
Dr. Carson is a most impressive man.
The CNN article about the poll says Trump is in 4th place with "very conservative" voters. I used to think FR was very conservative, but apparently it's leaning to the left lately.
http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/12/politics/iowa-donald-trump-poll-cnn-orc/index.html
[Trump] runs behind Carson and about even with Walker and Cruz among those who describe themselves as "very conservative" (25% Carson, 15% each Cruz and Walker, 12% Trump), and he runs even with Carson among evangelical Christians (18% each Trump and Carson, 12% Cruz, 11% Huckabee, 10% Walker).
Carson seems like a nice guy, and very smart — and hopefully smart enough to know that he is not CiC material by a long shot.
At some point he should throw his support to Cruz.
Iowa is not a winner take all state. Look who will be sharing the delegates and how they might come together as a final team
Does that mean they’d never elect Trump or Carson for a 2nd term, because by that time they’d be politicians?
That’s about how long Cruz has been a Senator and he’s apparently already been deemed an “insider” and “career politician” the way some simply seem to dismiss him.
Cruz may be an insider but he’s also an outsider who has directly taken it to Power. How I wish he’d get some traction and some air - The Donald, who I love, is sucking it all out.
The GOP is not allowing states to be winner-take-all until about a third of the way through the primaries. They let almost all the blue states vote later and be winner-take-all, a system that could badly hurt conservative candidates. They’ll be losing delegates in early, southern, conservative states to proportional allotment, while they’ll get no delegates from later blue states even if they come in 2nd place.
-— How I wish he’d get some traction and some air -—
I feel your pain but be patient. It will come. He shot up in the polls with only 3 minutes of time in the last debate. He should get more time in the next one.
He’s a great guy. I actually met somebody who knows him and says he’s a very good man. I have to keep telling myself it is very early out—
Carson would be great fighting to get right of that title! As Surgeon General, of course. Putting himself and others out of business.
Scotty can now go home and embrace his inner feminist, while promoting open borders.
Rubio and Rand Paul might be running senate after the next debate. Technically Rubio did okay in the last debate but he is running in 5th place in his home state??!!!!
Carly and Carson will eventually fade. They are both novel entries right now but neither will be able to handle what is going to be coming at them over the next few months. For Carly it will be her liberal views once they are well understood and the fact that she cut the value of HP stock in half while she was CEO.
For Carson, the nice guy in the race, it will be policy questions. He's a surgeon and great one. I just don't think you can master all the elements of policy required to defeat Cruz or even Rubio in a real debate. Time will tell on that.
And then there is the money that it takes to stay afloat.
That leaves Walker, Bush and Rubio. Time will tell on those but right now Rubio is on the rise and Walker and Bush seem to be fading.
So we have Trump at the top, Cruz potentially moving into 2nd place and Walker, Bush and Rubio as question marks and Fiorina and Carson expected to fade.
The rest: I'm writing them off right now.
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