Replies

Good news for Cruz. (Poet/Don't Know It?)

Carly and Carson will eventually fade. They are both novel entries right now but neither will be able to handle what is going to be coming at them over the next few months. For Carly it will be her liberal views once they are well understood and the fact that she cut the value of HP stock in half while she was CEO.

For Carson, the nice guy in the race, it will be policy questions. He's a surgeon and great one. I just don't think you can master all the elements of policy required to defeat Cruz or even Rubio in a real debate. Time will tell on that.

And then there is the money that it takes to stay afloat.

That leaves Walker, Bush and Rubio. Time will tell on those but right now Rubio is on the rise and Walker and Bush seem to be fading.

So we have Trump at the top, Cruz potentially moving into 2nd place and Walker, Bush and Rubio as question marks and Fiorina and Carson expected to fade.

The rest: I'm writing them off right now.

For Carson, the nice guy in the race, it will be policy questions. He’s a surgeon and great one. I just don’t think you can master all the elements of policy required to defeat Cruz or even Rubio in a real debate. Time will tell on that.

And then there is the money that it takes to stay afloat.

That leaves Walker, Bush and Rubio. Time will tell on those but right now Rubio is on the rise and Walker and Bush seem to be fading.

So we have Trump at the top, Cruz potentially moving into 2nd place and Walker, Bush and Rubio as question marks and Fiorina and Carson expected to fade.

Why is Carson expected to fade? In this anti-politician environment Rubio, Cruz and Paul are seen as the establishment and that is a tough one to take for conservatives who know his bona fides, not those that don’t follow politics closely. All they’ll hear is Ted Cruz shut down the government and while that appeals to conservatives to stop out of control spending, etc., most voters think that is bad and obstructionist. For Cruz to still be behind Carson at this point is very strange with exception that Trump, Carson and Fiorina are all looked at as outsiders and the electorate as a whole, not just conservatives, are very anti-establishment so far this cycle.