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Dick Morris Stands By Prediction: Romney Will Win 325 Electoral Votes
Fox News video copied onto Real Clear Politics ^

Posted on 11/04/2012 11:56:33 PM PST by Arthurio

Dick Morris appeared on a special Sunday broadcast of FOX News' "On the Record" with host Greta van Susteren to reaffirm his prediction that Mitt Romney will win Tuesday's presidential election in a landslide. Morris discussed the states he believes Romney will win and the number of electoral votes he predicts the Republican candidate will end up with.

Morris says Romney will capture 325 electoral votes while Obama will get 213, a significant difference.

"It will be the biggest surprise in recent American political history," Morris said. "It will rekindle the whole question on why the media played this race as a nailbiter where in fact Romney’s going to win by quite a bit."

Morris tells van Susteren pollsters are oversampling Democrats and says a poll that claims Obama is up 3, really means Romney is winning by 4.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; morris
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1 posted on 11/04/2012 11:56:41 PM PST by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

All the online sportsbooks have Obama as the one favored to win.


2 posted on 11/05/2012 12:07:56 AM PST by Jmathes
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To: Jmathes

How do they work you just put money on who you think is going to win?


3 posted on 11/05/2012 12:10:23 AM PST by funfan
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To: funfan

I’m not sure how smart bookies are.


4 posted on 11/05/2012 12:15:36 AM PST by Jmathes
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To: Jmathes

Bookies are smart about sports, not politics.


5 posted on 11/05/2012 12:18:10 AM PST by ozzymandus
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To: ozzymandus

Do they know any inside information that the public don’t know about?


6 posted on 11/05/2012 12:22:55 AM PST by Jmathes
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To: ozzymandus

Do they know any inside information that the public don’t know about?


7 posted on 11/05/2012 12:23:05 AM PST by Jmathes
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To: Arthurio

I think he is way off unfortunately...

Romney will likely only get 319 electoral votes. you really need to dismiss the optimistic folks.


8 posted on 11/05/2012 12:24:09 AM PST by Deagle (quo)
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To: Jmathes

The most important bettor are Wall Street junkies. One of my frat brothers works for T Rowe and he knows most there are hedging towards a Romney win. Even the libs he knows in the firm want a Romney win as they respect his business resume.


9 posted on 11/05/2012 12:28:04 AM PST by max americana (Make the world a better place by punching a liberal in the face)
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To: Arthurio

Morris sounded really confident. I know he hasn’t been right all the time, but he basically put his 40 years of reading polls and his career on the line tonight. He wouldn’t back down.

I’m no statistician, but it makes no sense to me that you can randomly sample different groups, numbers of people, different states and in poll after poll keep telling the American people it’s tied. What are the odds of that? Even with weighting, it shouldn’t come out exactly tied (not just within the margin of error) but exactly tied in so many polls, especially with oversampling in different polls by differing amounts.


10 posted on 11/05/2012 12:31:01 AM PST by MacMattico
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To: Jmathes

all the online bookies are overseas as are virtually all the bettors. They are basically either rabidly pro-Obama or just clueless about the flaws in the polls and the turnout models. You can’t get an account on InTrade unless you bank from an offshore account.


11 posted on 11/05/2012 12:32:21 AM PST by tellw
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To: Deagle

319 is fine with me.


12 posted on 11/05/2012 12:35:04 AM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: MacMattico
It is because it is infact tied. Just like the 2000 election, it is going to be a nail-biter.

All this talk of 300+ EVs is unjustified. I hope I am wrong and Romney loses, but I trust the aggregation of polls more than I trust Dick Morris' prognostications.

13 posted on 11/05/2012 1:04:09 AM PST by nwrep
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To: MacMattico
It is because it is infact tied. Just like the 2000 election, it is going to be a nail-biter.

All this talk of 300+ EVs is unjustified. I hope I am wrong and Romney wins, but I trust the aggregation of polls more than I trust Dick Morris' prognostications.

14 posted on 11/05/2012 1:04:44 AM PST by nwrep
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To: MacMattico

Dick Morris makes millions of dollars a year helping candidates and parties win world-wide. There’s a reason both Trent Lott and Bill Clinton hired him. If he, Michael Barone and Karl Rove say it’s gonna rain, buy a boat.


15 posted on 11/05/2012 1:20:21 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: nwrep

This is a solid Romney win:

(1) “Undecideds break for the challenger”—every election, no exceptions. They know the incumbent and don’t like them.

(2) On Wisconsin—the pollsters called that recall election “too close to call” in their most recent test of polling “technology”. They failed again. RR will win Wisconsin by Walker-like margins.

(3) and Ohio and maybe PA. Blue collar white males hate pollsters and won’t tell them the truth.


16 posted on 11/05/2012 1:31:52 AM PST by cgbg (Crying MSNBC lefties on election night=Victory!)
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To: Jmathes

If the online bettors had inside info / stuff the public didn’t know about, they’d probably sit on it till the last minute while Romney’s prices are low.

Also of interest: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2955037/posts

Basically one thing to keep in minds, is that often public polls get hired to help generate news cycles, not to put out highly accurate polls.


17 posted on 11/05/2012 1:34:01 AM PST by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State)
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To: Jmathes

If the online bettors had inside info / stuff the public didn’t know about, they’d probably sit on it till the last minute while Romney’s prices are low.

Also of interest: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2955037/posts

Basically one thing to keep in mind, is that often public polls get hired to help generate news cycles, not to put out highly accurate polls.


18 posted on 11/05/2012 1:34:26 AM PST by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State)
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To: Arthurio

I’m in for 300.


19 posted on 11/05/2012 1:43:38 AM PST by vrwc1
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To: tellw

Romney was a +225 on Sportsbook. That means if you bet 100 dollars, you get paid 225. Return of 125 if Romney wins. better than doubling your money. Obama is a -285. If you put 100 on Obama, your return is about 36 dollars if Obama wins.


20 posted on 11/05/2012 1:44:52 AM PST by dancusa (Barack be nimble, Barack be quick, Barack be history, November six..)
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To: nwrep

The polling data is all based on a very questionable assumption: this electorate is as Democratic or more Democratic than 2008!

For the MSM and pollsters, its like the 2010 mid-term never happened. All of these people live in a bubble. The Tea Party is still a force to be reckoned with.

And I like how the Romney Campaign has performed in the past 48 hours. It was a great weekend!


21 posted on 11/05/2012 1:48:19 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

Lord, I believe. Help my unbelief. :P


22 posted on 11/05/2012 1:49:52 AM PST by AmericanSamurai
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To: All

Romney gets 51.3% of the Popular vote and 295 EV’s.


23 posted on 11/05/2012 2:39:52 AM PST by Rodney Dangerfield ("We have boats that carry planes and other boats that go underwater")
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To: Arthurio

Just Win Baby.


24 posted on 11/05/2012 2:59:52 AM PST by AHerald ("Do not fear, only believe." - Mark 5:36)
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To: cgbg
None of this is true. Undecideds split evenly between GW and Kerry in 2004. On Wisconsin, many polls called it correctly towards the end, even if they had had it too close to call a month before. And Blue collar white males lying to pollsters is a favorite Freeper fantasy that surfaces every 4 years (in 2008 it was lumped under the Bradley Effect).

All this is eerily reminiscent of the 2008 bunker mentality. I just hope you are right this time.

25 posted on 11/05/2012 3:00:15 AM PST by nwrep
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To: Jmathes

Sportsbooks don’t lose money. From what I understand they win a percentage of every bet no matter what side is bet on. It seems to me that they are in the tank for obummer and trying to influence the outcome. Pretty sure they have an agenda.


26 posted on 11/05/2012 3:16:29 AM PST by New Jersey Realist (America: home of the free because of the brave)
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To: AmericanSamurai; goldstategop
>>>Lord, I believe. Help my unbelief.<<<<

PSALM 37

12 The wicked plot against the righteous
and gnash their teeth at them;
13 but the Lord laughs at the wicked,
for he knows their day is coming.
14 The wicked draw the sword
and bend the bow to bring down the poor and needy,
to slay those whose ways are upright.
15 But their swords will pierce their own hearts,
and their bows will be broken.
16 Better the little that the righteous have
than the wealth of many wicked;
17 for the power of the wicked will be broken,
but the LORD upholds the righteous.

Your quoted verse, AS, is one that I say often, and Psalm 37 is the one that is my bedrock for this election.

May it be thus, O Lord, may it be thus, in the Name of the Lord Jesus Christ, Amen ...

27 posted on 11/05/2012 3:30:39 AM PST by Pegita ('Tis so sweet to trust in Jesus, just to take Him at His Word ...)
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To: Arthurio

Romney win? Sure. Landslide? Methinks Mr. Morrison has been sucking too many toes.


28 posted on 11/05/2012 3:48:26 AM PST by Yo-Yo (Is the /sarc tag really necessary?)
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To: Jmathes

Bookies don’t set odds on what they believe will happen. They set odds to equalize out the betting as much as possible so that they can collect their ‘vig’, which is the amount of extra they get for wrong bets. They are setting these odds to try to get more Romney action to balance out earlier Obama bets. Since non-Americans are more likely to thiunk Obama will win their early bets more likely came in that way and they are encouraging late betters to go with Romney by setting the attractive risk/reward bet for Romney. The perfect balance for them is 50-50 betting.


29 posted on 11/05/2012 3:56:02 AM PST by LRoggy (Peter's Son's Business)
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To: Yo-Yo
"Romney win? Sure. Landslide? Methinks Mr. Morrison has been sucking too many toes."

Its improbable but not Impossible.

It really depends on how quickly Florida and Virginia and North Carolina and Ohio are called.

Add in Pennsyltucky and if they all are called early for Romney then democrats in the later time zones will not stand in line. You could easily pick up several Western and mid-Western States because of Dejected Democrats going home. Minnesota is close so is Nevada (According to RCP) even Oregon, then there is Wisconsin, Iowa and Colorado. Then as far as the popular vote goes lots of folks in California and Washington and Illinois might just stay home if its called early.

Of course the opposite could happen too. If Florida is called early for Obama then its pretty much game over for Romney and the blowout could happen in reverse.

30 posted on 11/05/2012 4:07:13 AM PST by Mad Dawgg (If you're going to deny my 1st Amendment rights then I must proceed to the 2nd one...)
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To: Arthurio

I have no idea how many EVs Romney is going to get tomorrow, but I have been smelling a Romney landslide for a couple of months now.

To my eye, the 2010 midterms were the bay draining before the tsunami rolls in. There’s more to it than that- I’m seeing little things *everywhere* that sound like a huge victory in the making. As pessimistic as I usually am, I’m seeing very little that’s making me go ‘uh-oh’.

Guess we’ll see tomorrow if I’m prophetic, or full of crap. :-)


31 posted on 11/05/2012 4:12:32 AM PST by Riley (The Fourth Estate is the Fifth Column.)
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To: Riley

I’m in a state where Romney will get 65 or better percent of the vote. I have no perspective. Only prayers...


32 posted on 11/05/2012 4:19:51 AM PST by kjam22 (my newest music video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fHjvo6eRkI)
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To: Arthurio

I think it was less than 48-hours ago that the smarmy little creep (Morris, not Obama) was saying things were changing, there was no guaranteed outcome, and Zero could still pull it out (or words to that effect).

Why should anyone believe him now?


33 posted on 11/05/2012 4:29:19 AM PST by Arm_Bears (Be cheerful, be confident, and VOTE!!)
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To: Yo-Yo

Romney win? Sure. Landslide? Methinks Mr. Morrison has been sucking too many toes.


I hope you are wrong, and Morris did not predict a MC Cain win, he was realistic in 2008 so i think he is in this one also.


34 posted on 11/05/2012 4:30:03 AM PST by ravenwolf
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
If he, Michael Barone and Karl Rove say it’s gonna rain, buy a boat.

Rove's electoral map, as of a few minutes, is still showing FL & VA as toss-ups. I know he's said it'll be Romney, but I wish he'd update his map (a week old).

35 posted on 11/05/2012 4:36:38 AM PST by workerbee (The President of the United States is DOMESTIC ENEMY #1)
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To: nwrep
Glad we have you as the oracle of reality, I mean what would us poor deluded saps do without Concern Trolls like yourself. The Democrats will do better for Obama 2008, Romney visiting blue states is desperation and this is going to be a Obama win. Will you be back Wednesday for a mea cupla, how you really had no insight, you just are basically a negative miserable person who pecked at your keyboard incessantly through election season for no other reason but to dampen enthusiasm.
36 posted on 11/05/2012 4:51:13 AM PST by pburgh01
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To: Jmathes
"All the online sportsbooks have Obama as the one favored to win."

And during Election Day 2004, Intrade for instance went 2-1 for Kerry. Market exchanges only get it right at the end when the last dime has been squeezed from the last sucker...

37 posted on 11/05/2012 5:10:34 AM PST by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, CO, IA, NH = 285EV)
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To: nwrep
"I hope I am wrong and Romney loses, but I trust the aggregation of polls more than I trust Dick Morris' prognostications."

Nothing worse than the aggregation of dated polls with variously flawed methodologies.

Let me school you.

Indiana was won by Obama in 2008, but it was excluded from all swing-state polling this year. Why? Because including Indiana would have kept the early swing-state polling within MoE. And that didn't fit the MSM narrative.

Very telling Freudian slip btw.

38 posted on 11/05/2012 5:16:45 AM PST by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, CO, IA, NH = 285EV)
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To: Arthurio
"It will be the biggest surprise in recent American political history,"

Not to people who have been paying attention.

39 posted on 11/05/2012 5:25:37 AM PST by wolf24
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To: Jmathes

Garbage in, garbage out.


40 posted on 11/05/2012 5:27:12 AM PST by wolf24
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To: StAnDeliver; nwrep
Very telling Freudian slip btw.

I knew I couldn't be the only one who caught that.

41 posted on 11/05/2012 5:35:15 AM PST by grellis (I am Jill's overwhelming sense of disgust.)
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To: Jmathes

Bookies look to balance the bets on either side of the proposition. The bookies don’t care who wins just so long as the bets for either side balances. They adjust the bets to match the action. In this sort of situation when there isn’t a point spread they adjust the odds to protect their profit.


42 posted on 11/05/2012 7:52:38 AM PST by Leto
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Newt is also seeing Romney with 300+ EV’s.


43 posted on 11/05/2012 7:55:35 AM PST by Leto
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To: Jmathes

Oh, please... Let this be Dick Morris’ turn to be right!


44 posted on 11/05/2012 8:44:00 AM PST by The Californian (The door to the room of success swings on the hinges of opposition. Bob Jones, Sr.)
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To: Jmathes

He’s simply taking the acquired data and adjusting it to reflect the turnout model that he feels will be accurate in this voting cycle.

If you believe 11% more dems than repubs will be voting this November 6th when in ‘08 which was a record turnout for the dems they managed +8%, then take the pew poll at face value and Obama wins by 3% national margin. Ain’t gonna happen, and many ‘08 Obama supporters will cross over or not even bother to vote.

Tuesday is national Obama Repudiation Day...


45 posted on 11/05/2012 10:35:35 AM PST by Hotlanta Mike (Feel the Power - GOP Tsunami Warning Issued for November 6th)
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To: Pegita

Amen!
Pegita, thank you very much!


46 posted on 11/05/2012 11:56:54 AM PST by bd476
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To: Jmathes

Bookies make their money off the handle. They get vig no matter who wins and could bascially care less unless thye have made the odds so onesided that they have no wagers on one side or the other. In that case they eat their mistake less the vig for the money wagered.


47 posted on 11/05/2012 12:06:25 PM PST by jwalsh07
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To: MacMattico

That is exactly what I keep saying. But, not only this election but every election. Every important election. It seems nearly impossible in my mind that this is always the case. How can that be? It just can’t.


48 posted on 11/05/2012 12:20:06 PM PST by riri (Plannedopolis-look it up. It's how the elites plan for US to live.)
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To: pburgh01
Will you be back Wednesday for a mea cupla,

Yes, and happily so...

49 posted on 11/05/2012 1:29:23 PM PST by nwrep
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To: StAnDeliver

I agree, lets see where this plays out. I will be very happy to see R&R win.


50 posted on 11/05/2012 1:30:45 PM PST by nwrep
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