Do they know any inside information that the public don’t know about?
If the online bettors had inside info / stuff the public didn’t know about, they’d probably sit on it till the last minute while Romney’s prices are low.
Also of interest: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2955037/posts
Basically one thing to keep in minds, is that often public polls get hired to help generate news cycles, not to put out highly accurate polls.
If the online bettors had inside info / stuff the public didn’t know about, they’d probably sit on it till the last minute while Romney’s prices are low.
Also of interest: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2955037/posts
Basically one thing to keep in mind, is that often public polls get hired to help generate news cycles, not to put out highly accurate polls.
Bookies look to balance the bets on either side of the proposition. The bookies don’t care who wins just so long as the bets for either side balances. They adjust the bets to match the action. In this sort of situation when there isn’t a point spread they adjust the odds to protect their profit.
He’s simply taking the acquired data and adjusting it to reflect the turnout model that he feels will be accurate in this voting cycle.
If you believe 11% more dems than repubs will be voting this November 6th when in ‘08 which was a record turnout for the dems they managed +8%, then take the pew poll at face value and Obama wins by 3% national margin. Ain’t gonna happen, and many ‘08 Obama supporters will cross over or not even bother to vote.
Tuesday is national Obama Repudiation Day...