Yes, Pennsylvania Is Still a Swing State (Romney expands playing field)

New Republic ^ | 06/19/2012 | William Galston

[SeekAndFind]

The past month has seen the momentum of the 2012 presidential election shift significantly. The national race is now in a virtual dead heat, and most key swing states are within the margin of error. And most important, it appears that Mitt Romney has expanded the playing field to include some states previously thought to be securely in President Obama’s column—including, in my view, Pennsylvania.

I base these conclusions on an analysis of surveys conducted since the beginning of June. Here’s what they show. (When there are multiple surveys, as there are in most cases, these figures represent averages.)

Wisconsin is an unexpected addition to the list. It’s hard, though, to think of a state whose politics are more volatile this year. The most recent presidential surveys may reflect the extraordinary Republican mobilization that kept Scott Walker in the governor’s mansion, and these passions may cool. Or they may not.

In my view, which I first ventured last month, it makes sense to consider adding Pennsylvania to the list, even though Obama carried it by more than 10 points in 2008. The latest Quinnipiac survey gives the president a 6-point edge (46-40), but his support remains well below 50 percent, as it has in most previous surveys for the past six months.

Obama’s job approval among Pennsylvanians stands at only 46, versus 49 percent who disapprove of his performance as president. Forty-eight percent think he deserves to be reelected, while 47 percent do not. And 56 percent are dissatisfied with the way things are going in their state, versus 43 percent who are satisfied.

[SeekAndFind]

			Obama		Romney		Obama Margin		Obama 2008 Margin
	National		45.2		44.7		0.5		7.3
	Nevada		48		42		6		15.5
	Colorado		46.5		45.5		1.0		9.0
	Iowa		46		47		(1)		9.5
	Wisconsin		46.0		45.0		1.0		13.9
	Ohio		45		48		(3)		4.6
	Virginia		47.7		45.0		2.7		6.3
	North Carolina		46		48		(2)		0.3
	Florida		47.5		47.5		--		2.8

[G Larry]

Need to be prepared to pepper spray or remove NBP thugs from PA voting sites, to avoid a repeat of the 08 intimidation.

Video for prosecuting them has proven useless.

[2banana]

Damn straight it is.

The 2010 elections - PA elected a republican governor, republican senator and the republicans took over both state house by large numbers...

[napscoordinator]

I am from Pennsylvania and every Presidential election is the same....PA will go Red this time and never does. Has not voted Republican since 1988....I doubt Romney is that exciting to change that. I thought PA seriously was going to go Red in 2004 but failed to and that was with a pretty decent candidate, Bush II second term. Romney NEVER should have been chosen if we wanted to see PA turn RED.

[ScottinVA]

So far, it’s appearing that Romney has far more will and vastly better resources than McLame of 2008. The more he can keep pace with fundraising, stay atop the issues of the day and continue his rapid-response tactics vs. 0bama’s propaganda machinery, the better.

Obama wasn’t expecting this kind of fight.

[Jane Long]

I listened to The Bauer & Rose show over the weekend and heard JD Hayworth suggest Gov. Kasich as McRomney’s VP...felt he could help carry Ohio AND PA, since that’s where Kasich is from (PA). Interesting thought.

[Shadow44]

And they gave us a new Voter ID law to sweat out the vote-manufacturers in Philly.

Taking control of all those state legislatures 2 years ago was a HUGE success for countering national level corruption from the Dems.

[aMorePerfectUnion]

Same thing was said about McCain Palin

[Vigilanteman]

We're now seeing how huge the decision of our RINO state GOP chairman Gleason was to lobby against the change in electoral vote allocation which was proposed last fall by our Senate Majority leader.

The governor had pledged to sign the bill and the GOP enjoyed comfortable majorities in both houses before Gleason lobbied against it.

Had the bill been enacted, Pennsylvania would be allocating electoral votes on the same basis as Maine and Nebraska: two for the winner of the state, one for the winner of each congressional district.

BO's electoral math would have been complicated big time. BO will have Gleason to thank if he limps over the finish line. This is his rosiest scenario without Pennsylvania:

Green marks the toss-ups at this point.

[johnthebaptistmoore]

Romney shouldn’t have been chosen, PERIOD! This time, the final ‘12 GOP POTUS should of been a small government conservative, instead of, yet another, “talk the pro-conservative talk, but walk the leftist walk” RINO Mitt Romney! Frustrating!

[Beagle8U]

PA and the other swing states won't be voting for Romney, they will be voting against Obama.

The election is about his economy and his failed ideas and record.

I doubt he will get many mine workers votes, or teamsters.

All those new UAW auto workers would vote for RTW in a heartbeat. They don't much like paying dues while they get half the wages of the older workers. They make less than nonunion auto workers.

[GOPJ]

It's dawning on the good folks of Pennsylvania that if they keep voting for Democrats, they'll become Detroit...

Starting to have second thoughts 'bout that happening...

[Nabber]

Reverse the blue and red on your map, and we’ll all be happy.....

[Vigilanteman]

I share your frustration. But remember: conservatives have only been able to nominate one of own in three elections since World War II : 1964, 1980 and 1984.

The sniping which went on in this forum between the various conservative factions in January thru April was a strong indicator of the final outcome.

[Vigilanteman]

Why subscribe to the Commie reversal of the red and blue colors? I haven’t been reconstructed.

[The_Reader_David]

I see you’re trying to give the GOP Tory Blue and the ‘Rats Labour Red. Give it up. The old American media convention was blue for the incumbent party, red for the out-of-office party and white for toss-ups (to get good old Americn red, white and blut). But thanks to some nitwit writing about “red states” and “blue states” in the wake of Bush-Gore, when the old convention gave red to the GOP and blue to the ‘Rats since Clinton was in office during the election, we’re stuck with Republican Red and ‘Rat Blue.

Think of it as having liberated the color red from the left in the wake of the fall of Communism. And given that they’re always whining about something or other, evidently with a perpetual case of the blues, blue isn’t so bad as a color for our party of the left.

[justiceseeker93]

Those poll numbers in the article look a bit too rosy as far as Obama is concerned. No surprise there, since they are from the left-leaning New Republic, which is undoubtedly using polling data developed by their fellow lefty media organizations, whose faulty techniques generally yield results which are skewed in the 'Rats' favor.

[Shadow44]

I agree. We’re probably the only country in the world that has the media portray conservatives as reds, and socialists as blue.

Don’t give in to the big lie!

[G Larry]

Florida, Ohio, and Colorado will all vote Romney.
I believe you can add WI to that mix.

I believe that’s enough to win back America.

[rogue yam]

Same thing was said about McCain Palin

A lot has changed since 2008.