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Romney takes lead in Ohio : Rasmussen Romney 46%, Obama 44%
Rasmussen Reports ^

Posted on 05/31/2012 6:18:14 AM PDT by sunmars

Mitt Romney has inched ahead of President Obama in Ohio, taking the lead in the key battleground state after the president has led there for several months.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Romney with 46% support to Obama’s 44%. Six percent (6%) like some other candidate, and five percent (5%) remain undecided.

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Government; Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; oh2012
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First sign of the tide turning in Ohio, Obama has been way ahead there for months.
1 posted on 05/31/2012 6:18:18 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: sunmars; AuH2ORepublican

Spot on analysis by AuH2ORepublican on another thread:

“It seems to me that the obvious runningmate for Romney would be Sen. Rob Portman of OH, who is an intelligent, experienced, hard-working, charismatic conservative who is popular among blue-collar voters in OH and is a Methodist. He is sufficiently conservative so as to motivate conservative voters not to stay at home but would not scare more moderate suburban Republicans. Quite frankly, Portman would make a far better presidential candidate than Romney or even than the candidate I supported, Rick Santorum, and if he can deliver OH to Romney we should be able to stop Obama from vetoing conservative laws, issuing dangerous executive orders and appointing hundreds of federal judges, including a couple of Justices.

Portman is also young enough to run for president someday. And since OH has Republican John Kasich as governor, a conservative Republican would replace him in the U.S. Senate (maybe Jim Jordan or Ken Blackwell). It makes too much political sense for Portman not to be selected, and it would be a great victory for conservatives in a presidential race that has been extremely disappointing to say the least”.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2872170/posts


2 posted on 05/31/2012 6:22:34 AM PDT by cll (I am the warrant and the sanction)
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To: sunmars

Obama at only 44% after dozens of campaign gigs in Ohio. He’s toast.


3 posted on 05/31/2012 6:25:13 AM PDT by Kahuna
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To: sunmars

America has had BAD Presidents before and will have them again.

But Obama is different. He is the FIRST EVIL, ANTI-AMERICAN president in history - and hopefully, the LAST.


4 posted on 05/31/2012 6:25:13 AM PDT by ZULU (Non Nobis Domine Non Nobis Sed Nomini Tuo Da Gloriam.)
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To: sunmars

While polls are notoriously unreliable at least those of LIKELY voters are more accurate than those of REGISTERED voters simply because 40% of registered voters do not vote.


5 posted on 05/31/2012 6:27:14 AM PDT by Don Corleone ("Oil the gun..eat the cannoli. Take it to the Mattress.")
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To: sunmars

Every time I go to Rasmussen I get so depressed.
Obumbo always seems to hold his own and not much change since he was elected, when it should be a linear drop into the toilet.
I guess we should never underestimate the total stupidity of the American public.


6 posted on 05/31/2012 6:27:44 AM PDT by AlexW
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To: ZULU

The Clintons love America? Who knew.


7 posted on 05/31/2012 6:28:54 AM PDT by Doctor 2Brains (If the government were Paris Hilton, it could not score a free drink in a bar full of lonely sailors)
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To: sunmars
First sign of the tide turning in Ohio, Obama has been way ahead there for months.

For all the good ( and sometimes not so good ) fun of U of OH vs. U of M in Football, the States are more linked economically than we might think, i.e. automotive and their suppliers. With that as a background.....

Yes Sunmars, the tide has turned, the question begs, when will Michigan??? Again IMHO Michigan will be ground Zero for this Election for Zero, it may end up being Obama's last stand...

8 posted on 05/31/2012 6:31:55 AM PDT by taildragger (( Palin / Mulally 2012 ))
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To: cll

Rob Portman is charismatic?

Who knew?


9 posted on 05/31/2012 6:33:24 AM PDT by txrangerette ("HOLD TO THE TRUTH...SPEAK WITHOUT FEAR" - Glenn Beck)
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To: Kahuna

Obama at only 44% after dozens of campaign gigs in Ohio. He’s toast.”

Stop saying that or you are going to bring on major depression for lots of freepers, namely, the “Romney has no chance” crowd!


10 posted on 05/31/2012 6:33:57 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: AlexW

I know what you mean. I stopped routinely going there months ago. Now, I just occasionally visit and only leave depressed. Hopefully, he is just down to the people who admit that they don’t like Obozo, and there are a lot of people who don’t but are telling the pollster they do.


11 posted on 05/31/2012 6:35:34 AM PDT by FreeAtlanta (Liberty and Justice for ALL)
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To: ConservativeDude

Obama will be at Ohio State again Friday.


12 posted on 05/31/2012 6:35:34 AM PDT by Loyal Buckeye
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To: ConservativeDude

Obama will be at Ohio State again Saturday.


13 posted on 05/31/2012 6:36:09 AM PDT by Loyal Buckeye
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To: AlexW
Every time I go to Rasmussen I get so depressed.

Obama won Ohio 51 to 47% in 2008, so I don't see any reason to be depressed by this poll.

14 posted on 05/31/2012 6:36:14 AM PDT by Doofer (Still, a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.)
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To: Kahuna
after dozens of campaign gigs in Ohio. He’s toast.

Ohio voters never have, and never will, forgive Barry for the bold-faced double-dealing lie he told about repealing NAFTA during the '08 campaign (telling Canada via backchannels it was merely campaign rhetoric for the unwashed).

Whether they agree, disagree or could not care less about NAFTA, voters loathe being treated like fools and idiots.

15 posted on 05/31/2012 6:39:32 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: AlexW

I guess 40% of America likes Obama and or are idiots or simply just go along (somewhat intelligent but still idiots none the less) or suffering from Stockholm syndrome due to a conbination post 9-11 and media brain washing the last decade or so.
Odumbo has given them plenty of reasons to abandon ship but that may not be enough.
Since there is no strong contrasting alternative, at least so far, then the 10%-15% that would consider a alternative have no where to go.
Again, without a compelling reason to do so.
The fact that Romney is as exciting as a plain oat meal or unripe banana doesn’t help matters.


16 posted on 05/31/2012 6:43:17 AM PDT by Leep (Enemy of the Statist)
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To: AlexW

Every time I go to Rasmussen I get so depressed.”

No, don’t be! I think the Rasmussen numbers today tell us that obama is eminently defeatable!

Yes, we have to contend with the reality that America elected him at all. And THAT is depressing, but at least 47% didn’t vote for him. All we have to do is snatch back that middle ground, and he’s gone.

And again, that is very doable.

I watch Rasmussen like a hawk, and I am very pleased that at THIS stage, still very early, that obama is running behind in all-important Ohio, that is very good. He can be beaten, and he will (hopefully!) be beaten.


17 posted on 05/31/2012 6:44:31 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: Buckeye McFrog
Whether they agree, disagree or could not care less about NAFTA, voters loathe being treated like fools and idiots.

Not so sure about that... so long as the freebies keep coming, so will the votes.

18 posted on 05/31/2012 6:44:38 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... yet voting doesn't???)
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To: sunmars
In this election Ohio, not Pennsylvania, is the Keystone state. With Ohio there are many paths for Romney to win, without Ohio the way is not clear, in fact, improbable.

I think we should see this move in Ohio as nothing more or less than the outworking of the trend which is our friend and we will see more and more of the tossup states going to Romney. We should see this in pari materia with the events in Wisconsin which means that we could see a sweep right across the rust belt including Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, skipping over Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin. We might even throw in Michigan if the momentum feeds on itself, which is entirely possible.

Signs that the momentum is feeding on itself will be continued defections from Obama and the Democrat ranks, dissension, and down ticket candidates repudiating Obama in a desperate every-man-for-himself panic. If that occurs, we could easily see states like Pennsylvania and Michigan as well as Oregon voting to save their country.


19 posted on 05/31/2012 6:45:57 AM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: cll

Are you from Ohio? Portman is not all that popular amongst conservatives here. He has been around along time and is viewed as part of the mainstream go along to get along GOP establishment.

He is flat and uninspiring. There are several picks that would motivate the base in Ohio much more than Portman. On the other hand if Mittens is going after the lukewarm independents than Portman is the man.


20 posted on 05/31/2012 6:46:51 AM PDT by FreedomNotSafety
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To: AlexW
The truth is... and even here on FR you can watch the attacks on me in this thread for saying so... but America is over. Eventually this system is going to crash. Not far off into someone else's future but within our lifetime. We cannot pay down the real debt that we owe... even if we had politicians willing to make hard and unpopular cuts... and the real debt is actually three times or more than the 15.1 Trillion that you see referenced. EU is going to crash soon... and so will wall street and the US Treasury. We have been lied to and scammed by BOTH parties for far too long and it is all beyond saving. We will all have to start over. THAT is where the hard part comes in.

LLS

21 posted on 05/31/2012 6:48:46 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (Don't Tread On Me)
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To: AlexW

Every time I go to Rasmussen I get so depressed.
Obumbo always seems to hold his own and not much change since he was elected, when it should be a linear drop into the toilet.
I guess we should never underestimate the total stupidity of the American public.

```````````

Agree with your observation that Barry somehow holds his own when he should be at about 10%

Bright side is that Rasmussen is , compared to others, more accurate on what the real %’s are.

To me a win is a win even if it comes down to .5%.

Ridding the WH of Obozo and MoChelle will be a day for celebration.

Hopefully there will be some pickups in Congress to provide a real platform for a new president to straighten out the mess.


22 posted on 05/31/2012 6:55:03 AM PDT by patriotspride
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To: Buckeye McFrog

He said he would repeal it and the idea of repealing NAFTA is what upset voters. Ohio is extremely dependent on exports and NAFTA is too important to repeal. Ohio is an exporting powerhouse and cannot afford a trade war to protect what little is left of unionized manufacturing, Government Motors and the like.


23 posted on 05/31/2012 6:55:29 AM PDT by FreedomNotSafety
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To: sunmars
Here is how you can know that Obama is done: he has already topped out in his voter support - virtually no one is likely going to decide to support him in addition to those who already do. The "undecided" vote will break (as it nearly always does) - for the challenger.

As a consequence, watch for the Democrat campaign to be unrelentingly negative and poisonously divisive, and for Obama to become increasingly shrill, desperate... and dangerous.

24 posted on 05/31/2012 6:56:50 AM PDT by andy58-in-nh (America does not need to be organized: it needs to be liberated.)
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To: AlexW
Every time I go to Rasmussen I get so depressed.
Obumbo always seems to hold his own and not much change since he was elected...”

I am not sure what polling charts you are looking at Rasmussen. Since Odumbo was elected..

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Seems to me like a massive change in fortunes for Odumbo in the polls since he was elected.

25 posted on 05/31/2012 7:01:03 AM PDT by SmokingJoe
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To: LibLieSlayer

LibLieSlayer makes a good point. The system is unworkable in its current state. 16 Trillion in debt. There is no difference between what is happening in Greece and where America is headed without radical radical change. Unlike some on FR I think Romney is a good guy, loves America and wants to do the right thing. I know from his Bain years that he is a technocrat who likes the geeky details of turning things around. I can’t help but think that he himself must lay awake at night sometimes and think to himself “I am going to win this but then what? how can I possibly turn this ship?”


26 posted on 05/31/2012 7:42:12 AM PDT by azcap (Who is John Galt ? www.conservativeshirts.com)
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To: AlexW

You shouldn’t.

The worst beating any democrat got in a POTUS election was George McGovern. McGovern got about 38% of the popular vote.

This means there is a baseline of 38% of voters who will ALWAYS vote democrat.

Jimmy Carter got 41% of the popular vote against Reagan and only won 49 electoral votes.

Getting 44% of the popular vote is DISMAL. Dukakis got 45.7% and only won 111 electoral votes. Dukakis is doing better than Obama.


27 posted on 05/31/2012 7:45:49 AM PDT by kidd
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To: AlexW

You shouldn’t.

The worst beating any democrat got in a POTUS election was George McGovern. McGovern got about 38% of the popular vote.

This means there is a baseline of 38% of voters who will ALWAYS vote democrat.

Jimmy Carter got 41% of the popular vote against Reagan and only won 49 electoral votes.

Getting 44% of the popular vote is DISMAL. Dukakis got 45.7% and only won 111 electoral votes. Dukakis is doing better than Obama.


28 posted on 05/31/2012 7:46:02 AM PDT by kidd
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To: AlexW

Depressed? These are outrageously...I use that word purposely and I’ll say it again...outrageously bad numbers for Obama at this point in the election. It is only down from here for him. He is at 44% in a state he has to have and in a state he got 51% in last time. And this is at a time when maybe 5% of the voters are even paying attention.

Most voters don’t even begin to pay attention until after Labor Day. Almost all voters have more important (to them) things to do than worry about a subject they hate anyway...politics.

That 44% is dropping toward true bottom for Obama, which in Ohio with its union workers and minority populations, is probably somewhere around 40%. Those undecideds out there will break for the challenger in 4 months time.

Obama looks to lose Ohio by a greater margin than he won it last time. No need to be depressed. Just don’t ever expect giant margins in politics, people vote self-interest...sometimes self-interest takes strange forms but it is self-interest anyway. If Obama loses by 15 points in Ohio - 58-42, which is possible with these numbers now - that is a massive, massive landslide. As one other poster posted before, he’s toast.


29 posted on 05/31/2012 8:09:13 AM PDT by Scott from the Left Coast
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To: Scott from the Left Coast

The TREND is your FRIEND! And that is going Mitts direction. Today more BAD news for the Pretender in Chief.... lowering of the GDP figure and lower consumer confidence as well as an uptick in unemployment benefits. The stock market is jittering and Obama is shaking at the knees....


30 posted on 05/31/2012 8:15:13 AM PDT by Republic Rocker
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To: sunmars
First sign of the tide turning in Ohio, Obama has been way ahead there for months.

Although there will doubtless be several twists and turns during the five months-plus until Election Day, the point you have made, above, remains important: viz., the big lead for President Obama, in the Buckeye State, was quite ephemeral...

31 posted on 05/31/2012 8:32:37 AM PDT by AmericanExceptionalist (Democrats believe in discussing the full spectrum of ideas, all the way from far left to center-left)
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To: azcap

“I am going to win this but then what? how can I possibly turn this ship?”

All I know is, it’s always a good idea to switch from bad policies to good policies, even late in the game.


32 posted on 05/31/2012 9:05:07 AM PDT by Califelephant
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To: ConservativeDude; All

Republican Nominee West would nullify Obama’s Race Card, be cleaner than a hound’s tooth, be a true Conservative, be smarter than any known economist, AND be the FAVORITE SON of the key State of Florida!

GO WEST, Republican Party! GO WEST!


33 posted on 05/31/2012 9:10:01 AM PDT by Graewoulf ((Dictator Baby-Doc Barack's obama"care" violates Sherman Anti-Trust Law, AND U.S. Constitution.))
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To: AlexW

“Every time I go to Rasmussen I get so depressed.
Obumbo always seems to hold his own and not much change since he was elected, when it should be a linear drop into the toilet.
I guess we should never underestimate the total stupidity of the American public.”

I explained why there is “no drop”, in this post from another thread:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2889089/posts?page=61#61


34 posted on 05/31/2012 9:11:28 AM PDT by Road Glide
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To: AlexW

“Every time I go to Rasmussen I get so depressed.”

Don’t be. Take to heart what Dick Morris and Rudy Giuliani have both said — there are 10 states with heavy majority populations of pro-Obama voters (CAL, NY, ILL, etc.) which skew these polls. It takes poll respondents from the other 40 states of majority-Romney to just make this look like an even race. Electorally speaking, Obama is way behind, and this could be a Dukakis scenario.


35 posted on 05/31/2012 10:26:57 AM PDT by Nabber
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To: sunmars

46% (Romney) + 44% (Obama) + 6% (Some other candidate) 5% (Undecided)..... Do I not know how to add or does that equal 101 percent?


36 posted on 05/31/2012 10:36:45 AM PDT by pistolpackinpapa
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To: cll

It makes too much political sense for Portman not to be selected...
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Hmmmm....... Is that what you really meant to say? Please re-read that statement.


37 posted on 05/31/2012 10:39:55 AM PDT by pistolpackinpapa
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To: ConservativeDude

Love your Post #10. LOL


38 posted on 05/31/2012 10:41:42 AM PDT by pistolpackinpapa
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To: Buckeye McFrog

....voters loathe being treated like fools and idiots.
_____________________________________________________________
And, that’s not just in Ohio. But, honestly, how many Buckeyes have forgotten about his NAFTA promise by now and/or how many do remember how he lied about it, but, they just don’t care anymore?

I hope that the good people of Ohio have long memories and short tempers.


39 posted on 05/31/2012 10:49:18 AM PDT by pistolpackinpapa
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To: azcap
To survive as a Republic, Americans are going to have to give up a huge chunk of their Social Security and Medicare and other freebie communist promises. Sorry... Socialist Security is not self sustaining... your government steals every cent of it and redistributes it... not only to malcontents in the USA but also around the world. There is no Social Security money left in the Treasury... it is ALL gone.

LLS

40 posted on 05/31/2012 10:51:28 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (Don't Tread On Me)
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To: azcap
Unlike some on FR I think Romney is a good guy, loves America and wants to do the right thing...I can’t help but think that he himself must lay awake at night sometimes and think to himself “I am going to win this but then what? how can I possibly turn this ship?”

Romney has an opportunity to go down in history.

He frequently says "We're going to turn things around and surprise the world."

I think he means it, and that it is possible. I think the pessimists are wrong.

If we cut regulations, reform the tax code, cut spending, reform entitlements, develop American energy resources, stop subsidizing leftist ideology, close the borders, ignore global warming hysteria, and cut the handouts then this country will come roaring back.

We don't even need to make huge changes, sudden changes, or perfectly conceived changes. We just need a President that clearly states that all of these changes must come, convincingly vows that they will come, and just gets started on all of them.

The American people are far under-performing our potential right now. It is our government that is in the way. Get the government out of the way and we will immediately go back to kicking ass and partying like rock stars, just as God intends.

41 posted on 05/31/2012 10:55:51 AM PDT by rogue yam
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To: LibLieSlayer
To survive as a Republic, Americans are going to have to give up a huge chunk of their Social Security and Medicare and other freebie communist promises.

I agree. Someone has to tell America the whole truth about Social Security and Medicare.

42 posted on 05/31/2012 10:57:58 AM PDT by rogue yam
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To: Scott from the Left Coast
These are outrageously...bad numbers for Obama at this point in the election.

They are indeed!

Woo hoo!

43 posted on 05/31/2012 11:00:17 AM PDT by rogue yam
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To: rogue yam

If we cut regulations, reform the tax code, cut spending, reform entitlements, develop American energy resources, stop subsidizing leftist ideology, close the borders, ignore global warming hysteria, and cut the handouts then this country will come roaring back.

We don’t even need to make huge changes, sudden changes, or perfectly conceived changes. We just need a President that clearly states that all of these changes must come, convincingly vows that they will come, and just gets started on all of them.

The American people are far under-performing our potential right now. It is our government that is in the way.”

Right on. Spoken like a true Reagan conservative! The American people are truly great and all we need is to have a President do exactly the things you mentioned, and we the people will take care of everything else!!!


44 posted on 05/31/2012 11:05:49 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: Graewoulf
Republican Nominee West would nullify Obama’s Race Card, be cleaner than a hound’s tooth, be a true Conservative, be smarter than any known economist, AND be the FAVORITE SON of the key State of Florida!

Good grief, you people are delusional.

You really think the GOP is going to suddenly ditch Romney, who's leading in the polls, and replace him with someone who isn't even running for president and who nobody outside of his congressional district has ever even heard of?

Like I said, delusional. Get a grip.

45 posted on 05/31/2012 11:06:00 AM PDT by Drew68 (I WILL vote to defeat Barack Hussein Obama!)
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To: Graewoulf

Would you nullify the votes in the Primary? I don’t think so..


46 posted on 05/31/2012 11:30:23 AM PDT by MEG33 (O Lord, Guide Our Nation)
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To: Doctor 2Brains
The Clintons love America? Who knew.

Compared to Obama, the Clintons are Abraham and Mary Todd Lincoln.

Well, maybe not that far, but Obama is certainly on a whole other level from any other president. Including Jimmy Carter.

47 posted on 05/31/2012 11:31:42 AM PDT by Dan Nunn (Support the NRA!)
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To: ConservativeDude
Right on. Spoken like a true Reagan conservative!

Thank you.

And just like the great Ronaldus Magnus would, I intend to campaign and vote, joyously and confidently, for the GOP nominee.

48 posted on 05/31/2012 11:45:34 AM PDT by rogue yam
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To: MEG33; Drew68

Rep. Allen West, R. Fla., ( Ret. US Army, Lt. Col.), vs Obama, or Moderate Mitt from Mass. vs Obama: which of the two options has a better chance of beating Obama?

As to the massive advantage that Romney has built up from the Primary Campaign, it now amounts to a coin-flip against Obama.

Romney himself said that he “would be satisfied with getting 50.1 % of the vote in November.” ( What a warrior!)

The Primary was just a test run and Romney came up short. If the RNC wants to beat Obama they have lots of Dark Horses, such as Allen West, who will do much better than Romney, the grandfather of Obama”care.”

If Allen West is the Republican Nominee, he beats Obama in a LANDSLIDE!

If Allen West is Romney’s Veep, Romney wins 60-40 against Obama.

If the Dems DUMP pothead Obama, all bets are off, as American voters in “both” political parties LOVE their Entitlements.


49 posted on 05/31/2012 11:55:34 AM PDT by Graewoulf ((Dictator Baby-Doc Barack's obama"care" violates Sherman Anti-Trust Law, AND U.S. Constitution.))
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To: sunmars
Here is the latest update of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.

The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and updates those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.

Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.

Below are the states that are still in the polling margin of error. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll, and the second number is the separation from Obama's result.

Watch List:

It's important to note that not enough new polls have been taken yet. These results are a baseline to show future gains.

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

Week GOP
Electoral
College
P10
GOP
Electoral
College
EV
GOP
Electoral
College
P 90
Probability
of 270
2008 Election 180 180 180 0.00%
11-May-12 193 220.73 248 0.16%
18-May-12 197 225.09 248 0.23%
25-May-12 206 232.72 256 1.21%
02-Jun-12 216 242.46 266 4.43%

And in the Senate...

This is the latest run of my Rasmussen state-by-state Senate model.

The model begins with the final results of the last Class 1 election, and I will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2010 Senate results were Republicans taking 47 seats, and Democrats caucusing 53 seats. My model begins with here.

Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or seat election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

Watch List:

It's important to note that not enough new polls have been taken yet. These results are a baseline to show future gains.

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

Week GOP
Senate
Seats
P10
GOP
Senate
Seats
EV
GOP
Senate
Seats
P90
Probability
of 51
GOP
Gain
2010 Election 47 47 47 0.00% 0
11-May-12 50 51.24 52 77.01% 4
18-May-12 50 51.24 52 77.01% 4
25-May-12 49 50.75 52 58.53% 3
02-Jun-12 49 50.63 52 54.34% 3

-PJ

50 posted on 05/31/2012 11:58:30 AM PDT by Political Junkie Too (If you can vote for President, then your children can run for President.)
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