Romney takes lead in Ohio : Rasmussen Romney 46%, Obama 44%

Rasmussen Reports ^

[sunmars]

Mitt Romney has inched ahead of President Obama in Ohio, taking the lead in the key battleground state after the president has led there for several months.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Romney with 46% support to Obama’s 44%. Six percent (6%) like some other candidate, and five percent (5%) remain undecided.

[sunmars]

First sign of the tide turning in Ohio, Obama has been way ahead there for months.

[cll]

Spot on analysis by AuH2ORepublican on another thread:

“It seems to me that the obvious runningmate for Romney would be Sen. Rob Portman of OH, who is an intelligent, experienced, hard-working, charismatic conservative who is popular among blue-collar voters in OH and is a Methodist. He is sufficiently conservative so as to motivate conservative voters not to stay at home but would not scare more moderate suburban Republicans. Quite frankly, Portman would make a far better presidential candidate than Romney or even than the candidate I supported, Rick Santorum, and if he can deliver OH to Romney we should be able to stop Obama from vetoing conservative laws, issuing dangerous executive orders and appointing hundreds of federal judges, including a couple of Justices.

Portman is also young enough to run for president someday. And since OH has Republican John Kasich as governor, a conservative Republican would replace him in the U.S. Senate (maybe Jim Jordan or Ken Blackwell). It makes too much political sense for Portman not to be selected, and it would be a great victory for conservatives in a presidential race that has been extremely disappointing to say the least”.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2872170/posts

[Kahuna]

Obama at only 44% after dozens of campaign gigs in Ohio. He’s toast.

[ZULU]

America has had BAD Presidents before and will have them again.

But Obama is different. He is the FIRST EVIL, ANTI-AMERICAN president in history - and hopefully, the LAST.

[Don Corleone]

While polls are notoriously unreliable at least those of LIKELY voters are more accurate than those of REGISTERED voters simply because 40% of registered voters do not vote.

[AlexW]

Every time I go to Rasmussen I get so depressed.
Obumbo always seems to hold his own and not much change since he was elected, when it should be a linear drop into the toilet.
I guess we should never underestimate the total stupidity of the American public.

[Doctor 2Brains]

The Clintons love America? Who knew.

[taildragger]

First sign of the tide turning in Ohio, Obama has been way ahead there for months.

For all the good ( and sometimes not so good ) fun of U of OH vs. U of M in Football, the States are more linked economically than we might think, i.e. automotive and their suppliers. With that as a background.....

Yes Sunmars, the tide has turned, the question begs, when will Michigan??? Again IMHO Michigan will be ground Zero for this Election for Zero, it may end up being Obama's last stand...

[txrangerette]

Rob Portman is charismatic?

Who knew?

[ConservativeDude]

Obama at only 44% after dozens of campaign gigs in Ohio. He’s toast.”

Stop saying that or you are going to bring on major depression for lots of freepers, namely, the “Romney has no chance” crowd!

[FreeAtlanta]

I know what you mean. I stopped routinely going there months ago. Now, I just occasionally visit and only leave depressed. Hopefully, he is just down to the people who admit that they don’t like Obozo, and there are a lot of people who don’t but are telling the pollster they do.

[Loyal Buckeye]

Obama will be at Ohio State again Friday.

[Loyal Buckeye]

Obama will be at Ohio State again Saturday.

[Doofer]

Every time I go to Rasmussen I get so depressed.

Obama won Ohio 51 to 47% in 2008, so I don't see any reason to be depressed by this poll.

[Buckeye McFrog]

after dozens of campaign gigs in Ohio. He’s toast.

Ohio voters never have, and never will, forgive Barry for the bold-faced double-dealing lie he told about repealing NAFTA during the '08 campaign (telling Canada via backchannels it was merely campaign rhetoric for the unwashed).

Whether they agree, disagree or could not care less about NAFTA, voters loathe being treated like fools and idiots.

[Leep]

I guess 40% of America likes Obama and or are idiots or simply just go along (somewhat intelligent but still idiots none the less) or suffering from Stockholm syndrome due to a conbination post 9-11 and media brain washing the last decade or so.
Odumbo has given them plenty of reasons to abandon ship but that may not be enough.
Since there is no strong contrasting alternative, at least so far, then the 10%-15% that would consider a alternative have no where to go.
Again, without a compelling reason to do so.
The fact that Romney is as exciting as a plain oat meal or unripe banana doesn’t help matters.

[ConservativeDude]

Every time I go to Rasmussen I get so depressed.”

No, don’t be! I think the Rasmussen numbers today tell us that obama is eminently defeatable!

Yes, we have to contend with the reality that America elected him at all. And THAT is depressing, but at least 47% didn’t vote for him. All we have to do is snatch back that middle ground, and he’s gone.

And again, that is very doable.

I watch Rasmussen like a hawk, and I am very pleased that at THIS stage, still very early, that obama is running behind in all-important Ohio, that is very good. He can be beaten, and he will (hopefully!) be beaten.

[ScottinVA]

Whether they agree, disagree or could not care less about NAFTA, voters loathe being treated like fools and idiots.

Not so sure about that... so long as the freebies keep coming, so will the votes.

[nathanbedford]

In this election Ohio, not Pennsylvania, is the Keystone state. With Ohio there are many paths for Romney to win, without Ohio the way is not clear, in fact, improbable.

I think we should see this move in Ohio as nothing more or less than the outworking of the trend which is our friend and we will see more and more of the tossup states going to Romney. We should see this in pari materia with the events in Wisconsin which means that we could see a sweep right across the rust belt including Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, skipping over Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin. We might even throw in Michigan if the momentum feeds on itself, which is entirely possible.

Signs that the momentum is feeding on itself will be continued defections from Obama and the Democrat ranks, dissension, and down ticket candidates repudiating Obama in a desperate every-man-for-himself panic. If that occurs, we could easily see states like Pennsylvania and Michigan as well as Oregon voting to save their country.

[FreedomNotSafety]

Are you from Ohio? Portman is not all that popular amongst conservatives here. He has been around along time and is viewed as part of the mainstream go along to get along GOP establishment.

He is flat and uninspiring. There are several picks that would motivate the base in Ohio much more than Portman. On the other hand if Mittens is going after the lukewarm independents than Portman is the man.

[LibLieSlayer]

The truth is... and even here on FR you can watch the attacks on me in this thread for saying so... but America is over. Eventually this system is going to crash. Not far off into someone else's future but within our lifetime. We cannot pay down the real debt that we owe... even if we had politicians willing to make hard and unpopular cuts... and the real debt is actually three times or more than the 15.1 Trillion that you see referenced. EU is going to crash soon... and so will wall street and the US Treasury. We have been lied to and scammed by BOTH parties for far too long and it is all beyond saving. We will all have to start over. THAT is where the hard part comes in.

LLS

[patriotspride]

Every time I go to Rasmussen I get so depressed.
Obumbo always seems to hold his own and not much change since he was elected, when it should be a linear drop into the toilet.
I guess we should never underestimate the total stupidity of the American public.

```````````

Agree with your observation that Barry somehow holds his own when he should be at about 10%

Bright side is that Rasmussen is , compared to others, more accurate on what the real %’s are.

To me a win is a win even if it comes down to .5%.

Ridding the WH of Obozo and MoChelle will be a day for celebration.

Hopefully there will be some pickups in Congress to provide a real platform for a new president to straighten out the mess.

[FreedomNotSafety]

He said he would repeal it and the idea of repealing NAFTA is what upset voters. Ohio is extremely dependent on exports and NAFTA is too important to repeal. Ohio is an exporting powerhouse and cannot afford a trade war to protect what little is left of unionized manufacturing, Government Motors and the like.

[andy58-in-nh]

Here is how you can know that Obama is done: he has already topped out in his voter support - virtually no one is likely going to decide to support him in addition to those who already do. The "undecided" vote will break (as it nearly always does) - for the challenger.

As a consequence, watch for the Democrat campaign to be unrelentingly negative and poisonously divisive, and for Obama to become increasingly shrill, desperate... and dangerous.

[SmokingJoe]

“Every time I go to Rasmussen I get so depressed.
Obumbo always seems to hold his own and not much change since he was elected...”

I am not sure what polling charts you are looking at Rasmussen. Since Odumbo was elected..

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Seems to me like a massive change in fortunes for Odumbo in the polls since he was elected.

[azcap]

LibLieSlayer makes a good point. The system is unworkable in its current state. 16 Trillion in debt. There is no difference between what is happening in Greece and where America is headed without radical radical change. Unlike some on FR I think Romney is a good guy, loves America and wants to do the right thing. I know from his Bain years that he is a technocrat who likes the geeky details of turning things around. I can’t help but think that he himself must lay awake at night sometimes and think to himself “I am going to win this but then what? how can I possibly turn this ship?”

[kidd]

You shouldn’t.

The worst beating any democrat got in a POTUS election was George McGovern. McGovern got about 38% of the popular vote.

This means there is a baseline of 38% of voters who will ALWAYS vote democrat.

Jimmy Carter got 41% of the popular vote against Reagan and only won 49 electoral votes.

Getting 44% of the popular vote is DISMAL. Dukakis got 45.7% and only won 111 electoral votes. Dukakis is doing better than Obama.

[kidd]

You shouldn’t.

The worst beating any democrat got in a POTUS election was George McGovern. McGovern got about 38% of the popular vote.

This means there is a baseline of 38% of voters who will ALWAYS vote democrat.

Jimmy Carter got 41% of the popular vote against Reagan and only won 49 electoral votes.

Getting 44% of the popular vote is DISMAL. Dukakis got 45.7% and only won 111 electoral votes. Dukakis is doing better than Obama.

[Scott from the Left Coast]

Depressed? These are outrageously...I use that word purposely and I’ll say it again...outrageously bad numbers for Obama at this point in the election. It is only down from here for him. He is at 44% in a state he has to have and in a state he got 51% in last time. And this is at a time when maybe 5% of the voters are even paying attention.

Most voters don’t even begin to pay attention until after Labor Day. Almost all voters have more important (to them) things to do than worry about a subject they hate anyway...politics.

That 44% is dropping toward true bottom for Obama, which in Ohio with its union workers and minority populations, is probably somewhere around 40%. Those undecideds out there will break for the challenger in 4 months time.

Obama looks to lose Ohio by a greater margin than he won it last time. No need to be depressed. Just don’t ever expect giant margins in politics, people vote self-interest...sometimes self-interest takes strange forms but it is self-interest anyway. If Obama loses by 15 points in Ohio - 58-42, which is possible with these numbers now - that is a massive, massive landslide. As one other poster posted before, he’s toast.

[Republic Rocker]

The TREND is your FRIEND! And that is going Mitts direction. Today more BAD news for the Pretender in Chief.... lowering of the GDP figure and lower consumer confidence as well as an uptick in unemployment benefits. The stock market is jittering and Obama is shaking at the knees....

[AmericanExceptionalist]

First sign of the tide turning in Ohio, Obama has been way ahead there for months.

Although there will doubtless be several twists and turns during the five months-plus until Election Day, the point you have made, above, remains important: viz., the big lead for President Obama, in the Buckeye State, was quite ephemeral...

[Califelephant]

“I am going to win this but then what? how can I possibly turn this ship?”

All I know is, it’s always a good idea to switch from bad policies to good policies, even late in the game.

[Graewoulf]

Republican Nominee West would nullify Obama’s Race Card, be cleaner than a hound’s tooth, be a true Conservative, be smarter than any known economist, AND be the FAVORITE SON of the key State of Florida!

GO WEST, Republican Party! GO WEST!

[Road Glide]

“Every time I go to Rasmussen I get so depressed.
Obumbo always seems to hold his own and not much change since he was elected, when it should be a linear drop into the toilet.
I guess we should never underestimate the total stupidity of the American public.”

I explained why there is “no drop”, in this post from another thread:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2889089/posts?page=61#61

[Nabber]

“Every time I go to Rasmussen I get so depressed.”

Don’t be. Take to heart what Dick Morris and Rudy Giuliani have both said — there are 10 states with heavy majority populations of pro-Obama voters (CAL, NY, ILL, etc.) which skew these polls. It takes poll respondents from the other 40 states of majority-Romney to just make this look like an even race. Electorally speaking, Obama is way behind, and this could be a Dukakis scenario.

[pistolpackinpapa]

46% (Romney) + 44% (Obama) + 6% (Some other candidate) 5% (Undecided)..... Do I not know how to add or does that equal 101 percent?

[pistolpackinpapa]

It makes too much political sense for Portman not to be selected...
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Hmmmm....... Is that what you really meant to say? Please re-read that statement.

[pistolpackinpapa]

Love your Post #10. LOL

[pistolpackinpapa]

....voters loathe being treated like fools and idiots.
_____________________________________________________________
And, that’s not just in Ohio. But, honestly, how many Buckeyes have forgotten about his NAFTA promise by now and/or how many do remember how he lied about it, but, they just don’t care anymore?

I hope that the good people of Ohio have long memories and short tempers.

[LibLieSlayer]

To survive as a Republic, Americans are going to have to give up a huge chunk of their Social Security and Medicare and other freebie communist promises. Sorry... Socialist Security is not self sustaining... your government steals every cent of it and redistributes it... not only to malcontents in the USA but also around the world. There is no Social Security money left in the Treasury... it is ALL gone.

LLS

[rogue yam]

Unlike some on FR I think Romney is a good guy, loves America and wants to do the right thing...I can’t help but think that he himself must lay awake at night sometimes and think to himself “I am going to win this but then what? how can I possibly turn this ship?”

Romney has an opportunity to go down in history.

He frequently says "We're going to turn things around and surprise the world."

I think he means it, and that it is possible. I think the pessimists are wrong.

If we cut regulations, reform the tax code, cut spending, reform entitlements, develop American energy resources, stop subsidizing leftist ideology, close the borders, ignore global warming hysteria, and cut the handouts then this country will come roaring back.

We don't even need to make huge changes, sudden changes, or perfectly conceived changes. We just need a President that clearly states that all of these changes must come, convincingly vows that they will come, and just gets started on all of them.

The American people are far under-performing our potential right now. It is our government that is in the way. Get the government out of the way and we will immediately go back to kicking ass and partying like rock stars, just as God intends.

[rogue yam]

To survive as a Republic, Americans are going to have to give up a huge chunk of their Social Security and Medicare and other freebie communist promises.

I agree. Someone has to tell America the whole truth about Social Security and Medicare.

[rogue yam]

These are outrageously...bad numbers for Obama at this point in the election.

They are indeed!

Woo hoo!

[ConservativeDude]

If we cut regulations, reform the tax code, cut spending, reform entitlements, develop American energy resources, stop subsidizing leftist ideology, close the borders, ignore global warming hysteria, and cut the handouts then this country will come roaring back.

We don’t even need to make huge changes, sudden changes, or perfectly conceived changes. We just need a President that clearly states that all of these changes must come, convincingly vows that they will come, and just gets started on all of them.

The American people are far under-performing our potential right now. It is our government that is in the way.”

Right on. Spoken like a true Reagan conservative! The American people are truly great and all we need is to have a President do exactly the things you mentioned, and we the people will take care of everything else!!!

[Drew68]

Republican Nominee West would nullify Obama’s Race Card, be cleaner than a hound’s tooth, be a true Conservative, be smarter than any known economist, AND be the FAVORITE SON of the key State of Florida!

Good grief, you people are delusional.

You really think the GOP is going to suddenly ditch Romney, who's leading in the polls, and replace him with someone who isn't even running for president and who nobody outside of his congressional district has ever even heard of?

Like I said, delusional. Get a grip.

[MEG33]

Would you nullify the votes in the Primary? I don’t think so..

[Dan Nunn]

The Clintons love America? Who knew.

Compared to Obama, the Clintons are Abraham and Mary Todd Lincoln.

Well, maybe not that far, but Obama is certainly on a whole other level from any other president. Including Jimmy Carter.

[rogue yam]

Right on. Spoken like a true Reagan conservative!

Thank you.

And just like the great Ronaldus Magnus would, I intend to campaign and vote, joyously and confidently, for the GOP nominee.

[Graewoulf]

Rep. Allen West, R. Fla., ( Ret. US Army, Lt. Col.), vs Obama, or Moderate Mitt from Mass. vs Obama: which of the two options has a better chance of beating Obama?

As to the massive advantage that Romney has built up from the Primary Campaign, it now amounts to a coin-flip against Obama.

Romney himself said that he “would be satisfied with getting 50.1 % of the vote in November.” ( What a warrior!)

The Primary was just a test run and Romney came up short. If the RNC wants to beat Obama they have lots of Dark Horses, such as Allen West, who will do much better than Romney, the grandfather of Obama”care.”

If Allen West is the Republican Nominee, he beats Obama in a LANDSLIDE!

If Allen West is Romney’s Veep, Romney wins 60-40 against Obama.

If the Dems DUMP pothead Obama, all bets are off, as American voters in “both” political parties LOVE their Entitlements.

[Political Junkie Too]

Here is the latest update of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.

The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and updates those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.

Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.

Below are the states that are still in the polling margin of error. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll, and the second number is the separation from Obama's result.

Watch List:

• Arizona: No Poll (R +8.5%)
• Colorado: No Poll (R -9.0) - just within the default margin of error
• Florida: No Poll (R +1%)
• Georgia: No Poll (R +5.2%)
• Indiana: -0.8% (R +6%)
• Missouri: No Poll (R +3%)
• Montana: No Poll (R +7%)
• Nevada: No Poll (R -8%)
• North Carolina: +5% (R +8%)
• North Dakota: No Poll (R +8.7%)
• Ohio: +4% (R +2%)
• Pennsylvania: -3.2% (R -6%) - moves back within the margin of error
• South Carolina: No Poll (R +9.0%) - just within the default margin of error
• South Dakota: No Poll (R +8.4%)
• Virginia: No Poll (R +1%)
• Wisconsin: No Poll (R -4%)

It's important to note that not enough new polls have been taken yet. These results are a baseline to show future gains.

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Electoral Votes P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 270” – The probability associated with value 270 (the Electoral College majority goal).

Week	GOP Electoral College P10	GOP Electoral College EV	GOP Electoral College P 90	Probability of 270
2008 Election	180	180	180	0.00%
11-May-12	193	220.73	248	0.16%
18-May-12	197	225.09	248	0.23%
25-May-12	206	232.72	256	1.21%
02-Jun-12	216	242.46	266	4.43%

And in the Senate...

This is the latest run of my Rasmussen state-by-state Senate model.

The model begins with the final results of the last Class 1 election, and I will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2010 Senate results were Republicans taking 47 seats, and Democrats caucusing 53 seats. My model begins with here.

Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or seat election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

Watch List:

• Arizona 1: No Poll (R +17%) - waiting for primary results
• Indiana 2: -45.4% (R +0%) - moves back within the margin of error
• Massachusetts 1: No Poll (R +0%)
• Missouri 2: No Poll (R +7%)
• New Mexico 1: +12.7% (R -4%)
• New York 1: No Poll (R -24%) - waiting for primary results
• Ohio 1: +1% (R -5%)
• Pennsylvania 1: +0% (R -5%) - moves back within the margin of error
• Rhode Island 2: No Poll (R -7%)
• Tennessee 2: No Poll (R +2.7%)
• Virginia 2: -3.2% (R +1%)

It's important to note that not enough new polls have been taken yet. These results are a baseline to show future gains.

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Senate Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Senate Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Senate Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 51” – The probability associated with value 51 (the Senate majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (47), rounded down.

Week	GOP Senate Seats P10	GOP Senate Seats EV	GOP Senate Seats P90	Probability of 51	GOP Gain
2010 Election	47	47	47	0.00%	0
11-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
18-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
25-May-12	49	50.75	52	58.53%	3
02-Jun-12	49	50.63	52	54.34%	3

-PJ