[sunmars]

First sign of the tide turning in Ohio, Obama has been way ahead there for months.

[cll]

Spot on analysis by AuH2ORepublican on another thread:

“It seems to me that the obvious runningmate for Romney would be Sen. Rob Portman of OH, who is an intelligent, experienced, hard-working, charismatic conservative who is popular among blue-collar voters in OH and is a Methodist. He is sufficiently conservative so as to motivate conservative voters not to stay at home but would not scare more moderate suburban Republicans. Quite frankly, Portman would make a far better presidential candidate than Romney or even than the candidate I supported, Rick Santorum, and if he can deliver OH to Romney we should be able to stop Obama from vetoing conservative laws, issuing dangerous executive orders and appointing hundreds of federal judges, including a couple of Justices.

Portman is also young enough to run for president someday. And since OH has Republican John Kasich as governor, a conservative Republican would replace him in the U.S. Senate (maybe Jim Jordan or Ken Blackwell). It makes too much political sense for Portman not to be selected, and it would be a great victory for conservatives in a presidential race that has been extremely disappointing to say the least”.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2872170/posts

[Kahuna]

Obama at only 44% after dozens of campaign gigs in Ohio. He’s toast.

[ZULU]

America has had BAD Presidents before and will have them again.

But Obama is different. He is the FIRST EVIL, ANTI-AMERICAN president in history - and hopefully, the LAST.

[Don Corleone]

While polls are notoriously unreliable at least those of LIKELY voters are more accurate than those of REGISTERED voters simply because 40% of registered voters do not vote.

[AlexW]

Every time I go to Rasmussen I get so depressed.
Obumbo always seems to hold his own and not much change since he was elected, when it should be a linear drop into the toilet.
I guess we should never underestimate the total stupidity of the American public.

[taildragger]

First sign of the tide turning in Ohio, Obama has been way ahead there for months.

For all the good ( and sometimes not so good ) fun of U of OH vs. U of M in Football, the States are more linked economically than we might think, i.e. automotive and their suppliers. With that as a background.....

Yes Sunmars, the tide has turned, the question begs, when will Michigan??? Again IMHO Michigan will be ground Zero for this Election for Zero, it may end up being Obama's last stand...

[nathanbedford]

In this election Ohio, not Pennsylvania, is the Keystone state. With Ohio there are many paths for Romney to win, without Ohio the way is not clear, in fact, improbable.

I think we should see this move in Ohio as nothing more or less than the outworking of the trend which is our friend and we will see more and more of the tossup states going to Romney. We should see this in pari materia with the events in Wisconsin which means that we could see a sweep right across the rust belt including Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, skipping over Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin. We might even throw in Michigan if the momentum feeds on itself, which is entirely possible.

Signs that the momentum is feeding on itself will be continued defections from Obama and the Democrat ranks, dissension, and down ticket candidates repudiating Obama in a desperate every-man-for-himself panic. If that occurs, we could easily see states like Pennsylvania and Michigan as well as Oregon voting to save their country.

[andy58-in-nh]

Here is how you can know that Obama is done: he has already topped out in his voter support - virtually no one is likely going to decide to support him in addition to those who already do. The "undecided" vote will break (as it nearly always does) - for the challenger.

As a consequence, watch for the Democrat campaign to be unrelentingly negative and poisonously divisive, and for Obama to become increasingly shrill, desperate... and dangerous.

[AmericanExceptionalist]

First sign of the tide turning in Ohio, Obama has been way ahead there for months.

Although there will doubtless be several twists and turns during the five months-plus until Election Day, the point you have made, above, remains important: viz., the big lead for President Obama, in the Buckeye State, was quite ephemeral...

[pistolpackinpapa]

46% (Romney) + 44% (Obama) + 6% (Some other candidate) 5% (Undecided)..... Do I not know how to add or does that equal 101 percent?

[Political Junkie Too]

Here is the latest update of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.

The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and updates those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.

Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.

Below are the states that are still in the polling margin of error. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll, and the second number is the separation from Obama's result.

Watch List:

• Arizona: No Poll (R +8.5%)
• Colorado: No Poll (R -9.0) - just within the default margin of error
• Florida: No Poll (R +1%)
• Georgia: No Poll (R +5.2%)
• Indiana: -0.8% (R +6%)
• Missouri: No Poll (R +3%)
• Montana: No Poll (R +7%)
• Nevada: No Poll (R -8%)
• North Carolina: +5% (R +8%)
• North Dakota: No Poll (R +8.7%)
• Ohio: +4% (R +2%)
• Pennsylvania: -3.2% (R -6%) - moves back within the margin of error
• South Carolina: No Poll (R +9.0%) - just within the default margin of error
• South Dakota: No Poll (R +8.4%)
• Virginia: No Poll (R +1%)
• Wisconsin: No Poll (R -4%)

It's important to note that not enough new polls have been taken yet. These results are a baseline to show future gains.

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Electoral Votes P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 270” – The probability associated with value 270 (the Electoral College majority goal).

Week	GOP Electoral College P10	GOP Electoral College EV	GOP Electoral College P 90	Probability of 270
2008 Election	180	180	180	0.00%
11-May-12	193	220.73	248	0.16%
18-May-12	197	225.09	248	0.23%
25-May-12	206	232.72	256	1.21%
02-Jun-12	216	242.46	266	4.43%

And in the Senate...

This is the latest run of my Rasmussen state-by-state Senate model.

The model begins with the final results of the last Class 1 election, and I will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2010 Senate results were Republicans taking 47 seats, and Democrats caucusing 53 seats. My model begins with here.

Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or seat election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

Watch List:

• Arizona 1: No Poll (R +17%) - waiting for primary results
• Indiana 2: -45.4% (R +0%) - moves back within the margin of error
• Massachusetts 1: No Poll (R +0%)
• Missouri 2: No Poll (R +7%)
• New Mexico 1: +12.7% (R -4%)
• New York 1: No Poll (R -24%) - waiting for primary results
• Ohio 1: +1% (R -5%)
• Pennsylvania 1: +0% (R -5%) - moves back within the margin of error
• Rhode Island 2: No Poll (R -7%)
• Tennessee 2: No Poll (R +2.7%)
• Virginia 2: -3.2% (R +1%)

It's important to note that not enough new polls have been taken yet. These results are a baseline to show future gains.

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Senate Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Senate Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Senate Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 51” – The probability associated with value 51 (the Senate majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (47), rounded down.

Week	GOP Senate Seats P10	GOP Senate Seats EV	GOP Senate Seats P90	Probability of 51	GOP Gain
2010 Election	47	47	47	0.00%	0
11-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
18-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
25-May-12	49	50.75	52	58.53%	3
02-Jun-12	49	50.63	52	54.34%	3

-PJ