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Libya without Gaddafi: What to Expect, What to Watch For (Victor Davis Hanson)
NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE ^ | February 21, 2011 | Victor Davis Hanson

Posted on 02/21/2011 1:16:59 PM PST by neverdem

One of the most surreal experiences of my life — even apart from having a ruptured appendix and emergency surgery in a Gaddafi-government clinic — was a spring assignment in Libya to lecture on the Roman ruins there (which are quite impressive, since the neglect and ensuing 40 years of sand have, in counterintuitive fashion, been a protective cocoon from Gaddafi’s far greater ravages).

It was like no other country I have ever visited: wet garbage and sewage in the streets; an oil-exporter with massive pot-holes and no asphalt to fix them; almost every room, office, or hallway in Tripoli with peeling paint, exposed wiring, and something broken; the airport a disaster; almost every human action a possible violation of some government statute.

And, of course, Gaddafi’s picture was everywhere — sometimes as the protector of Islam, sometimes a sort of new-age Stalin, sometimes as the spiritual leader of black Africa, always presented with a nauseating green backdrop. In fact, books, shirts, even simple packaging was green. Citizens were terrified and talked in whispers, often relating some of the strangest rumors imaginable: past calls to burn all violins, past calls for every citizen to raise chickens, past calls for bonuses for marrying black African nationals. I arrived the day Lionel Ritchie was playing a 20th-anniversary anti-American concert commemorating Gaddafi’s heroic resistance to the Reagan bombing.

In sum, Gaddafi seems to have managed to destroy almost everything he touched: infrastructure, normal human interaction, the energy industry, the media — every aspect of life bore his destructive handprint.

So what does his apparent departure portend? Some random thoughts:

1) This is the first totalitarian, collectivist terror state to topple in this period of Middle Eastern unrest, which raises the question of whether others (e.g., Syria, Iran) might also face the same fate as Tunisia and Egypt, despite their willingness to shoot and kill indiscriminately and ban the international press.

2) Gaddafi hated the United States. Anti-American propaganda was spoon-fed to the population hourly (I remember watching the evenings newsreels’ ad nauseam depictions of U.S. “crimes” in Iraq). We are disliked by some countries’ protesters for cozying up to Saudi, Tunisian, Egyptian, and Pakistani authoritarians; does it necessarily follow that we will be liked by the opponents of anti-American authoritarians? Does anti-anti-Americanism translate into pro-Americanism?

I doubt it. In 2006, I heard constantly from my minders and others that Gaddafi was installed through some sort of U.S./Zionist plot to impoverish Libya. In general, if the Middle East becomes more ‘democratic’ (as in plebiscites without constitutions), we should brace, at least in the beginning, for a grassroots outpouring of anti-Western, anti-American, and anti-Semitic venom, given what we have seen in various polls of popular opinion.

3) We were far less culpable than the Europeans in dealing with this monster — especially the British and Italians, who simply overlooked Libyans’ virtual imprisonment and looked for profits wherever possible.

4) The country has great natural beauty, a stunning coastline, a central location, untapped gas and oil reserves (Gaddafi’s incompetence often meant that oil was not so easy to extract and squander), incredible antiquities — and unlimited tourist and commercial potential should it ever embrace constitutional government.

5) Libyans seemed to me terrified of Egyptians, including the tens of thousands of illegal-alien Egyptians in their country. The oil fields in their lightly populated country are a little too near for their comfort to the border of the oil-needy, overpopulated Egyptian powerhouse. The oil-rich border regions between the two countries will be of interest in the days ahead.

6) What is the U.S. official policy in all this? Is there a consistent one? When it came to encouraging anti-theocratic protesters in Iran, our policy was not to meddle; then we meddled quite a lot in anti-authoritarian protests in Egypt. Cannot the administration at last state that it supports non-violent, gradual transitions to consensual government, institutionalized secular human rights, and an independent judiciary — regardless of whether the overthrown government was hard-right authoritarian or hard-left totalitarian or theocratic Islamist? Since all governments and figures in the Middle East seem transitory, it would be far better to establish a policy that is principled and constant, no matter the ideologies and authoritarians involved.

In other words, I think the Obama administration’s “reset” outreach to countries like Iran and Syria is moribund — as it should be. Oppressed peoples in nightmarish states do not care to hear of our efforts to reach out to their oppressors, multiculturalism or no multiculturalism.


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Politics/Elections; US: District of Columbia
KEYWORDS: gaddafi; kaddafi; libya; vdh
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1 posted on 02/21/2011 1:17:02 PM PST by neverdem
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To: neverdem

Another hellhole heard from.


2 posted on 02/21/2011 1:21:56 PM PST by paulycy (Islamo-Marxism is Evil.)
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To: neverdem
Thanks for posting. I really like Hanson. If only we had him as Secretary of State!
3 posted on 02/21/2011 1:26:52 PM PST by stripes1776
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To: neverdem

Unfortunately, this write-up seems to raise more questions than answers.


4 posted on 02/21/2011 1:28:51 PM PST by camerongood210
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To: ml/nj

self ping - important artcle


5 posted on 02/21/2011 1:28:51 PM PST by ml/nj
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To: neverdem

“I arrived the day Lionel Ritchie was playing a 20th-anniversary anti-American concert commemorating Gaddafi’s heroic resistance to the Reagan bombing.”

Fascinating.


6 posted on 02/21/2011 1:32:06 PM PST by headstamp 2 ("My Boss is a Jewish Carpenter")
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To: stripes1776

I like Hanson too.

But I will take John Bolton for Secretary of State.

Time to take the gloves off.


7 posted on 02/21/2011 1:32:11 PM PST by NeverForgetBataan (To the German Commander: ..........................NUTS !)
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To: neverdem

I like VDH. He is one of the more rational informed commentators.


8 posted on 02/21/2011 1:46:25 PM PST by AEMILIUS PAULUS (It is a shame that when these people give a riot)
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To: neverdem
Cannot the administration at last state that it supports non-violent, gradual transitions to consensual government, institutionalized secular human rights, and an independent judiciary...?"

No, Mr. Hansen. They can't. It's not in their DNA.

9 posted on 02/21/2011 1:50:45 PM PST by Lurker (The avalanche has begun. The pebbles no longer have a vote.)
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To: neverdem
Cannot the administration at last state that it supports non-violent, gradual transitions to consensual government, institutionalized secular human rights, and an independent judiciary...?"

No, Mr. Hansen. They can't. It's not in their DNA.

10 posted on 02/21/2011 1:51:01 PM PST by Lurker (The avalanche has begun. The pebbles no longer have a vote.)
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To: neverdem

IMHO, Obama was behind this and knows it will result in $10 gas. Just what he wanted. I’m sure he wasn’t thinking it would get this big this fast, but then he is the operating without a brain.


11 posted on 02/21/2011 2:00:23 PM PST by MotherRedDog
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To: neverdem

IMHO, Obama was behind this and knows it will result in $10 gas. Just what he wanted. I’m sure he wasn’t thinking it would get this big this fast, but then he is the operating without a brain.


12 posted on 02/21/2011 2:00:30 PM PST by MotherRedDog
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To: neverdem

The headline is a bit misleading, since it presents a good picture of life under Qaddafi, but very little about what will follow—except that they will hate America, as usual.


13 posted on 02/21/2011 2:01:28 PM PST by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: camerongood210

Sounds like the Middle East.


14 posted on 02/21/2011 2:01:28 PM PST by Slings and Arrows (You can't have Ingsoc without an Emmanuel Goldstein.)
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To: headstamp 2

Equally fascinating: the poor man had an appendictomy in Libya! Love to know the details on that one.


15 posted on 02/21/2011 2:01:34 PM PST by miss marmelstein
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To: neverdem
...wet garbage and sewage in the streets; an oil-exporter with massive pot-holes and no asphalt to fix them; almost every room, office, or hallway in Tripoli with peeling paint, exposed wiring, and something broken; the airport a disaster; almost every human action a possible violation of some government statute.

"Hellholes" are the fruit of the Muslim religion... Great for the few thugs at the top - hell for the ordinary people...

16 posted on 02/21/2011 2:05:31 PM PST by GOPJ (http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php - It's only uncivil when someone on the right does it.- Laz)
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To: neverdem
Since all governments and figures in the Middle East seem transitory, it would be far better to establish a policy that is principled and constant, no matter the ideologies and authoritarians involved.

Sarah Palin needs to hook up with Victor Davis Hanson (politically)... he needs to be part of the team.

17 posted on 02/21/2011 2:11:29 PM PST by GOPJ (http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php - It's only uncivil when someone on the right does it.- Laz)
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To: neverdem
Why did it take so long...Finally...:

Libyan Muslim leaders order followers to rebel

18 posted on 02/21/2011 2:19:50 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: miss marmelstein

The tale of Hanson’s 2006 appendectomy in Libya was indeed a fascinating story. Our faithful friend, Google, will lead you to the following account, written by VDH himself:

http://www.city-journal.org/html/16_4_libyan_holiday.html


19 posted on 02/21/2011 2:25:56 PM PST by Hawthorn
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To: Hawthorn

Thanks so much! I can always depend on my FR friends to help me find the source.


20 posted on 02/21/2011 2:37:01 PM PST by miss marmelstein
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