Libya without Gaddafi: What to Expect, What to Watch For (Victor Davis Hanson)

NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE ^ | February 21, 2011 | Victor Davis Hanson

[neverdem]

Thanks for the link!

[neverdem]

Thanks for the link!

[neverdem]

Thanks for the link!

[vetvetdoug]

Look at what was done when Wheelus AFB was abandoned.

[mrsmith]

Qaddafy: the Obama of Libya.

[flat]

IT has always perplexed me ...that these mideastern states ended up being such hell holes.....they had centuries of a head start on us. Then oil riches landed on their doorsteps...and yet they ended up as Mr Hanson here describes them. Rationally you would think they'd have looked around and realized the blessings capitalism, representative government and free trade bestow on all nations who embrace them. Instead they never did but decended into rule by thug...and here they sit. GOOD GOD !! RUSH LIMBAUGH IS RIGHT THE TROUBLE WITH PLANET EARTH IS THE UNEQUAL DISTRIBUTION OF CAPITALISM.....GO FIGURE...

[Oatka]

5) Libyans seemed to me terrified of Egyptians, including the tens of thousands of illegal-alien Egyptians in their country.
Interesting to see someplace besides Europe and the US having an illegal alien problem.

The oil fields in their lightly populated country are a little too near for their comfort to the border of the oil-needy, overpopulated Egyptian powerhouse. The oil-rich border regions between the two countries will be of interest in the days ahead.
Interesting indeed. If the Egyptians make a grab, will Libya yell for help from the US? Just as importantly, would we do so?

[AmericanInTokyo]

IMHO, NOW is the time for JOHN BOLTON to step in and officially construct that Presidential Exploratory Committee for 2012, if he has not alread done so.

FOREIGN POLICY IS LIABLE TO BE THE FRONT AND CENTER ISSUE IN EARLY 2012 IN THE EARY PRIMARIES, particularly if that whole region goes to hell in a handbasket or nears such a horrendous possibility. Ambassador Bolton will wipe the floor with his GOP competitors on foreign policy and then Obama--for Soetero's complete incompetence, abject foolishessness and outrigh perilous danger in this current situation (or any other Democrat takers) due to his deep, saged, well-aged and thoughtful if not excellent, strategic grasp of what we as a nation need to do on the World Stage in the case of such anarchy, uprising, violence, destabilization and chaos, all emanating from Middle East, Gulf, South Asia and North Africa regions.

[infowarrior]

Unfortunately, this write-up seems to raise more questions than answers.

Hansen gives an analysis in which I concur. There are no (at least no easy) answers to the Middle east at present. The entire region was long ago consumed by an ideology which inhibits anything like entering the kind of world which we ourselves inhabit. Until that ideology is extinct, they will also be, alas, both alien, and a mortal threat to our own ideology.

This is a fact, as difficult as it seems to accept, or not. Once the fact is accepted, however, the the question remains, what to do about this threat. The answer is, there are no easy, neat, clean, morally acceptable ones at present. It is beyond human ability to solve, humanely. Thus, it can and should, lie in God's hands, and His alone...

the infowarrior

[Sonny M]

Josh Bolton is almost definitely going to run for POTUS, but by all appearances, he is really campaigning for a VP slot, and by all rights, he probably should get it, depending on whom the eventual nominee is.

[AmericanInTokyo]

Well, you can keep Josh.

It's John whom I really want!

[sonic109]

I 2nd that motion

[Sonny M]

As long as its not Michael...............LOL

FWIW, I am a big supporter of JOHN Bolton, and, no matter what, he will help the debate in a meaningful way, his influence and expertise could provide a real learning experience for any candidate....

[FreedomPoster]

The fundamental problem is that there are no easy answers, there is massive instability in the Middle East, and there is perhaps little we can really do.

We live in interesting times.

[Cronos]

1. Syria won't fall. Assad may be a dictator but he allows more economic growth and other freedoms than others. Also Syria is very diverse with 20% Christian (Maronites, Chaldean Catholics, Syriacs etc.) and a lot of Allawis, Druze, Shias, Ismailis, and various schools of Sunnis.

2. Iran is a different matter.

3. Libya is a paradigm -- there is a movement to separate themselves from Arabs and Islam by considering themsevels Imazighen (Berbers), but I doubt it has much strength, though I hope it could win.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks neverdem. All he has to do is last the next couple of weeks and the riots will run out of gas; then the real crackdown will start, causing a big outflow of Libyan exiles to neighboring countries, probably Tunisia and Egypt, and also to Europe and the US.

[AdmSmith]

Even the rats are leaving http://www.saudigazette.com.sa/index.cfm?method=home.regcon&contentID=2011022394451 it might be civil war, until Libya break apart in two countries.

http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/analysis-libyas-tribal-politics-key-to-gaddafis-fate