[Daily Kos] Research 2000: Problems in plain sight

Daily Kos ^ | 2009-06-29 | Mark Grebner, Michael Weissman, and Jonathan Weissman

[justlurking]

For the past year and a half, Daily Kos has been featuring weekly poll results from the Research 2000 (R2K) organization. These polls were often praised for their "transparency", since they included detailed cross-tabs on sub-populations and a clear description of the random dialing technique. However, on June 6, 2010, FiveThirtyEight.com rated R2K as among the least accurate pollsters in predicting election results. Daily Kos then terminated the relationship.

One of us (MG) wondered if odd patterns he had noticed in R2K's reports might be connected with R2K's mediocre track record, prompting our investigation of whether the reports could represent proper random polling. We've picked a few initial tests partly based on which ones seemed likely to be sensitive to problems and partly based on what was easy to read by eye before we automated the data download. This posting is a careful initial report of our findings, not intended to be a full formal analysis but rather to alert people not to rely on R2K's results. We've tried to make the discussion intelligible to the lay reader while maintaining a reasonable level of technical rigor.

[Conclusion]

People who have been trusting the R2K reports should know about these extreme anomalies. We do not know exactly how the weekly R2K results were created, but we are confident they could not accurately describe random polls.

[justlurking]

FR says Daily Kos articles aren't welcome, but I thought this particular one was worth posting. So, I've left out the article URL from the usual link field, but it's here:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/6/29/880179/-Research-2000:-Problems-in-plain-sight

If a moderator wants to insert the URL into the appropriate field, please do so.

The analysis essentially concludes that the polls contracted by Daily Kos were rigged. In this followup, Kos acknowledges:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/6/29/880185/-More-on-Research-2000

I have just published a report by three statistics wizards showing, quite convincingly, that the weekly Research 2000 State of the Nation poll we ran the past year and a half was likely bunk.

[Above My Pay Grade]

(Markos smacking himself on his forehead)”Darn, I should’ve used Rasmussen!”

[DManA]

How refreshingly honest of thenm to admit they’re a bunch of dingbats who don’t know what they are doing.

[JPG]

The poll was ditched because Markos found out that the poll results that women find him very attractive was not validated by his experiences in the real world.

[GraceG]

78% of Poll Results are made up, the other 34% just don’t matter....

[Chode]

and the RATS, take another one in the..............................HA ha!!!

[SatinDoll]

R2K evidently provided the ‘facts’ the customer, Daily Kos, wanted to see.

Now Daily Kos is suing them. Figures.

[Frantzie]

Who benefited by these Soros funded propaganda polls? John MCCain. An April 2, 2010 Daily Kos poll showed MCCain at 52% anbd JD at 37%. McCain is a Democrat and the lib media are doing everything to save him.

This is a scandal for McCain.

[dr_who]

Actually, I disagree. The more stupid, crazy, blind, and delusional your enemy is, the better. That’s far preferable to an enemy that appears to have the purest motives but is actually cynical and manipulative. Trouble is, we have all of the above. Even some of our allies are like that.

[Drango]

R@K was a preferred polling firm for the donkeys. But the part I like best is the following part of the KOS argument and analysis

...Kos called "statistic wizards" -- Mark Grebner, Michael Weissman, and Jonathan Weissman. They are respectively described in the Kos post as political consultant, a retired physicist, and a wildlife research technician.

[SatinDoll]

“...political consultant, a retired physicist, and a wildlife research technician.”

And you like it best because...I presume because it’s baloney?

[SunkenCiv]

Mark Grebner, Michael Weissman, and Jonathan Weissman

Thanks justlurking.

[Admin Moderator]

bump!

[hal ogen]

Liar, Liar, Pants on fire! Just when will the Lefties (if ever) find truth to be a value worth embracing. They have zero integrity about anything. If a Leftie told me it was sunny outside, I’d have to look first...and then I would wonder how they next are going to lie to me. It is said that the percentage of the population who are psychopaths is about 3%. What is the percentage of Lefties in society?

[oprahstheantichrist]

"You f#*%ked up! You trusted us!"

[DBrow]

MSM uses rigged polls to pull or push public opinion and consensus all the time, I thought that was why DailyKos was always out of kilter, an effort to pull a little untransparently harder than the rest of the pack.

I suspect another shoe fall.

[houeto]

McCain is a Democrat and the lib media are doing everything to save him.

Damn skippy!

This is a scandal for McCain.

Hope and pray...hope and pray!

[arrogantsob]

You need a dump truck for that load.

[LoneStarGI]

"Looks like someone lost a paddle, hehehe."

[Friendofgeorge]

Or Opinion Dynamics, they have been pretty good to Obama and Democrats over the years, especially in crunch time just before election. Yes Opinion Dynamics would be very good for Daily Kos.