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Take, for instance, their large January 2010 survey aimed at proving Republicans were all kooks. They did a sample of about 2000 Republicans - a totally absurd sample size, most pollsters wouldn't in good conscience have a client pursue a survey of that size unless they had microtargeting aims and really needed a lot of subsample detail. Unless you really, really want a big sample for the smaller cells (say, you want 100 interviews from female Hispanic Republicans age 18-34) there's no reason to do a survey of that size. 1000 interviews will do for a national. Sometimes we go...

In the final weeks leading up to the June 8 Democratic Senate runoff in Arkansas, no data proved more pivotal in shaping conventional wisdom than a pair of Research 2000 polls showing challenger Bill Halter holding a lead. And those surveys—which fueled the narrative that Sen.Blanche Lincoln was a goner—may have been bogus, according to the blog that commissioned them. The prospect that polling data in a Senate contest of national consequence may have been faked has sent shockwaves across the campaign world, raising disturbing questions not only about the reliability of suddenly ubiquitous public polls, but about a new...

Daily Kos is certainly one of the most popular left blog sites, so it is with interest that we learn that its pollster upon whom so much of its stories were based, was just making it up. From NRO: DailyKos Surveys Likely Bunk, May Have Been Fabricated [Daniel Foster] "DailyKos founder Markos Moulitsas has admitted that some or all of the surveys the site conducted through Research 2000 may be faulty - even fabricated: I have just published a report by three statistics wizards showing, quite convincingly, that the weekly Research 2000 State of the Nation poll we ran the...

An admission from Markos Moulitsas, proprietor of the Daily Kos web empire: I have just published a report by three statistics wizards showing, quite convincingly, that the weekly Research 2000 State of the Nation poll we ran the past year and a half was likely bunk. Later, he writes, "While the investigation didn't look at all of Research 2000 polling conducted for us, fact is I no longer have any confidence in any of it, and neither should anyone else. I ask that all poll tracking sites remove any Research 2000 polls commissioned by us from their databases. I hereby...

Okay, I just got off the phone with a lawyer for DailyKos, and he gave me a bunch of interesting new detail about the lawsuit Kos is going to file against the polling outfit Research 2000. The gist: This is likely to be a serious lawsuit that is going to flush a lot out into the open, and prompt a serious discussion about what news orgs should be doing to vet polling data they commission. In case you missed it, DailyKos founder Markos Moulitsas today revealed that he was preparing to sue Research 2000, which Kos has commissioned polling from...

For the past year and a half, Daily Kos has been featuring weekly poll results from the Research 2000 (R2K) organization. These polls were often praised for their "transparency", since they included detailed cross-tabs on sub-populations and a clear description of the random dialing technique. However, on June 6, 2010, FiveThirtyEight.com rated R2K as among the least accurate pollsters in predicting election results. Daily Kos then terminated the relationship. One of us (MG) wondered if odd patterns he had noticed in R2K's reports might be connected with R2K's mediocre track record, prompting our investigation of whether the reports could represent...

The liberal website DailyKos.com has chosen to terminate its relationship with MD-based pollster Research 2000, according to DailyKos founder Markos Moulitsas. "I have decided to part ways with our current pollster, and will be looking for a new polling partner to finish out this election cycle," Moulitsas wrote in a statement posted on his site. Research 2000 Pres. Del Ali confirmed the split in an interview with Hotline OnCall. Moulitsas' decision comes in the wake of last night's AR SEN Dem primary runoff, in which Sen. Blanche Lincoln held off LG Bill Halter, Daily Kos' preferred candidate. The website promoted...

MONTPELIER — A new poll shows Democrat Peter Welch has established a small lead in the race to succeed Rep. Bernard Sanders, one of a few dozen contests that could help to determine control of Congress next year. The poll found that if the election were held now, Welch would get the vote of 45 percent and Martha Rainville, the Republican nominee, would get 39 percent. The poll said other candidates would get 2 percent of the vote and 14 percent of respondents were undecided. WCAX-TV commissioned the poll from Research 2000 of Rockville, Md. A total of 400 likely...

SOUTH BEND -- Democrat Joe Donnelly appears to be increasing his lead over incumbent U.S. Rep. Chris Chocola in what is still a tight 2nd District congressional race. A weekend Tribune/WSBT-TV poll of 400 likely voters showed Donnelly with a 50 percent to 42 percent lead over Chocola, with 8 percent undecided and a 5 percent margin of error. That compares to a July poll that showed Donnelly with a 46 percent to 41 percent lead over Chocola, with 13 percent undecided and the same 5 percent margin of error.

U.S. Sen. Jim Talent's deluge of ad spending apparently has paid off. The latest Research 2000 poll for the Post-Dispatch and KMOV-TV (Channel 4) found that Talent, R-Mo., has chipped away at the edge held by his Democratic rival, state Auditor Claire McCaskill. With a little more than two months left before Election Day, the two are in a statistical dead heat. The Maryland-based firm's latest poll of 800 likely voters, conducted Monday through Thursday, found that 47 percent backed McCaskill and 46 percent supported Talent. Two percent supported Libertarian Frank Gilmour; 5 percent were undecided.Advertisement Green Party candidate Lydia...

CONCORD (AP) - A new Concord Monitor poll gives John Kerry a slight lead over President Bush in New Hampshire, thanks in part to Kerry’s stronger showing among women and independents. The Democratic candidate for president was the choice of 49 percent, compared to 45 percent for Bush. Ralph Nader got 2 percent and 4 percent were undecided. The telephone poll of 600 likely voters was conducted Tuesday through Thursday by Research 2000. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points. A similar Monitor poll three weeks ago had Bush and Kerry tied at 46 percent each,...

WASHINGTON -- Sen. Bob Graham holds an commanding lead in his home state of Florida over all rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination, but he trails President Bush in a potential general-election matchup, according to a poll conducted for the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. The poll found high public-approval ratings for both Graham and Bush in Florida, the state that decided the last presidential election. The president drew especially strong support among Hispanic voters, indicating that his outreach efforts and Cuba policies have strengthened his re-election chances. The poll of 600 Floridians who regularly vote in statewide elections -- plus an...

No surprise, Dick Gephardt is the overwhelming favorite among Missouri Democrats for their party's presidential nomination. But in a matchup with President Bush, Gephardt trails in his home state. The Missouri congressman had the backing of 45 percent of Missouri Democrats. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts was a distant second at 13 percent. Against Bush, however, Gephardt was down by double digits, 52 percent to 38 percent. The Research 2000 poll of 600 voters was conducted June 9-11 and had an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points, larger for subgroups such as Democratic voters.