Posted on 02/08/2008 7:30:45 PM PST by Kurt Evans
Many news organizations report delegate projections based on nonbinding votes for candidate preference. The New York Times counts only delegates that have been officially selected and are bound by their preferences (link in post #2):
695 - Senator McCain
159 - Governor Huckabee
136 - Governor Romney
5 - Congressman Paul
0 - Ambassador Keyes
There'll be 2,380 total delegates selected for the national convention, and a candidate will need the votes of 1,191 of them to win the nomination. So far 995 delegates have been officially selected and are bound by their preferences. Senator McCain would still need the votes of 496 more delegates, or 36 percent of the remaining 1,385, to guarantee nomination on the first ballot. Note that holding Senator McCain to 36 percent in the delegate count doesn't require holding him to 36 percent at the polls, since many states weight their allocation of delegates disproportionately in favor of the winner.
As many of you may know, I supported Congressman Hunter until late October, and I've been supporting Governor Huckabee since then. Obviously my first choice is for Governor Huckabee to win the nomination on the first ballot and select Congressman Hunter as his running mate. He'll need 1,032 of the remaining 1,385 delegates, or 75 percent, to guarantee a first-ballot victory. That sounds like a tall order, but consider that Senator McCain has acquired 70 percent of the bound delegates so far. If public opinion shifts against him, a reversal is clearly possible.
My second choice would be for Governor Huckabee to enter the convention with a plurality of support. Mathematically--with major help from Congressman Paul and/or Ambassador Keyes--that would be possible with 537 of the remaining 1,385 delegates, or about 39 percent. Realistically it would probably require at least 60 to 70 percent.
My third choice would be a brokered convention and the resulting opportunity for conservative delegates to filibuster for a more conservative nominee than Senator McCain, such as Congressman Hunter. As explained above, that would require holding Senator McCain to less than 36 percent of the remaining delegates. That is, 64 percent of them would have to support other candidates or abstain from the convention's first vote.
My fourth choice would be simply to prevent McCain delegates from running roughshod over the party's pro-family conservative heritage and recreating the national platform in their own liberal image. The solution to that potential problem is recognizing that even if you've been brain-Rushed into personally despising Governor Huckabee, his delegates are generally much, much more conservative than Senator McCain's. The greater the number of conservative Huckabee delegates who make it to the convention, the better off the party and the nation will be in the long run.
In closing, anyone who says we have to immediately unite behind Senator McCain is lying. This campaign is over a year old, and the general election is nine months away. A few more weeks of ideological debate will do much more good than harm. And anyone who says in the present tense that Senator McCain "is the nominee"--Rush Limbaugh for example--is lying. Real conservatives aren't quitters.
Thank you.
“Thank you for this analysis.”
You’re welcome.
“Surely the most counterproductive thing would be for both to drop out at once, when McCain didn’t even get 50% in his home state.”
Good point.
“If Huckabee is not the nominee or at least the VP, I will (gulp) vote third party for Ron Paul just to send a message to the party.”
I’m making a very deliberate effort not to dwell on hypotheticals. We have nine more months to prepare for the general election. A lot can happen.
Obviously Freepers do not represent the majority of people who cast ballots in the Republican primary.Obviously. The country has made it clear it doesn't want to listen to conservatives. Either the conservatives on the internet, or the conservatives on talk radio. We have to accept that, regroup, and decide what to do, what influence we can still play in an increasingly liberal society. Stamping our feet and getting really, really, really angry, and then blaming the media, isn't going to change anything.
“... the New York Times chose not to count some states won by Obama on Super Tuesday claiming that the delegates are not counted yet.”
Those delegates will be more likely to support Senator Obama, but they won’t be officially bound to him.
“Convince me, and I’ll help you convince others.”
May the truth find you:
http://mikehuckabee.com/?FuseAction=Issues.Home
http://mikehuckabee.com/?FuseAction=Issues.View&Issue_id=26
http://mikehuckabee.com/?FuseAction=Issues.View&Issue_id=4
“The country has made it clear it doesn’t want to listen to conservatives. Either the conservatives on the internet, or the conservatives on talk radio.”
The conservatives on talk radio have been profoundly confused during these primaries. For example, they tried to tell us that baby-killers Giuliani and Romney were more conservative than Governor Huckabee. I’ve never been able to figure out exactly what (double) standards they were applying, and I’m guessing that’s why much of the country—myself included—doesn’t want to listen as much as we did in the past.
Its a long shot for Huckabee to outright win but he does have a chance to deny McCain the nomination.
Even the fourth choice is a worthy goal. Each candidate who runs brings a focus to their own areas of strength. For Huckabee, that is the social issues. If he can run a competitive campaign from here on out, it will force McCain to take socons seriously and pick one as his running mate.
I'm sorry, but nothing productive is accomplished by saying it is a lie to state the obvious. There is a remote chance that Rush is mistaken, but he is not "lying". There are plenty of lies being told out there. This is not one of them.
Real conservatives aren't quitters.
True, but real realistic conservatives admit when a battle is lost, and go off to fight another, such as electing conservative representatives and senators.
Pan_Yan said
“”Governor Huckabee has a long track record of not only opposing border control but also giving every possible government benefit to those in the country illegally. He called a bill requiring state agencies to report illegal immigrants “unchristian.” He griped about an ICE raid on a chicken plant in Arkansas because it was bad for the children.
Show me some evidence that he will be inclined to shut the borders, or, if you prefer, we can move on to another topic. Give me a reason to support Governor Huckabee.””
Why not tell us what you think the best option is?
Hillary or Obama?
McCain also has a long track record of not only opposing border control and giving every possible government benefit to those in the country illegally, and also a history of decades of stabbing conservatives and Republicans in the back in the Senate.
If McCain and Huckabee were an even gamble on the border, I’d take my chances on Huckabee’s promises to change, and then vote for him for a whole list of reasons besides.
Of the original field of candidates, I thought Duncan Hunter was probably the best pick, if he could get national traction, because of his military service and strength on immigration issues. The more I learned about him, the more highly I regarded him.
But Huckabee was my second choice. I have been a big fan of his since he was still governor of Arkansas, when he started the “Tax me more Fund,” for people who didn’t think they were paying enough taxes.
It was a great jab at the Dems - creative, innovative, bold, and humorous, but most of all, EFFECTIVE at stopping them.
I think Rush even complimented him for it at the time.
The Fair Tax is the most ‘CONSERVATIVE’ idea anyone has talked about in this whole election, because the IRS, that administers the income tax / withholding, is the most invasive, oppressive, socialist institution in our country.
He is an ardent, articulate supporter of the Fair Tax, and I believe he really “gets it”. It is the best hope on the horizon for giving power back to the people, and waking people up to the stranglehold the current tax system has on the people and the economy.
Duncan Hunter also supports the Fair Tax and is one of the cosigners on the bill, but didn’t seem to promote it as effectively as Huckabee.
Reliably pro-life. Reliable supporter of the 2nd amendment, not just as a hunter but for self defense and to guard against tyranny.
I admire Huckabee for the weight he lost, and his desire to promote a healthy lifestyle as one approach to get a handle on healthcare.
I actually drove on the roads in Arkansas - a real nightmare before he was governor, some of the best after that.
I was VERY disappointed to hear that he had criticized Bush’s foreign policy and conduct of the war, but I took the time to actually READ the article for myself.
His criticism was that Bush was not doing enough to make the American people (and the world) really understand the enemy we face, people so savagely fanatical they are willing to blow up themselves, and their own children, and slaughter innocents, in the name of their religion. He is dedicated to trying to build up the intelligence and military even faster that Bush’s current plan call for - the kind of commander in chief I’m looking for.
A lot of politicians got a rude awakening when the American people protested amnesty.
If DUNCAN HUNTER believes Huckabee can be trusted on border/immigration and WOT issues, I would trust Duncan Hunter’s informed, educated judgment after he spent a year getting to know the candidates, more than I would trust the opinion of any of the haters on here.
I absolutely believe Huckabee would be better than McCain on border security, and a whole list of grievances many conservatives have against McCain.
There are a lot of reasons I want to vote FOR Huckabee, but I also want to vote against McCain, as not acceptable for so many reasons.
HUCKABEE / HUNTER ‘08
“”And anyone who says in the present tense that Senator McCain “is the nominee”—Rush Limbaugh for example—is lying.
I’m sorry, but nothing productive is accomplished by saying it is a lie to state the obvious. There is a remote chance that Rush is mistaken, but he is not “lying”. There are plenty of lies being told out there. This is not one of them.””
It’s not really accurate, though, is it? McCain is obviously the front runner, not obviously the nominee.
MCCAIN IS THE FRONT RUNNER, NOT THE WINNER!!!!!!
HE ONLY HAS ABOUT HALF THE DELEGATES NEEDED TO WIN!
I have always respected Rush for being precise and accurate, with great intelligence, insight, and information.
So why is he saying something now that’s not really precise or accurate??
I DON’T BELIEVE he is being careless, or not sharp enough to know the difference, so what gives now?
He claims to be the truth detector, alerting us to the efforts by the MSM to spin or slant the news, so what is he up to??
I hope it’s productive to point out that Rush is up to something. I hope someone who knows what it going on can explain why he is making misleading statements, because I’m not buying the “mistake” line, when it keeps happening.
- just heard on CNN that Huckabee is way ahead in Kansas (for what Cnn is worth). They just called it for Huckabee, 62% to McCain’s 22%, 79% in.
McCain will blow him away in every state but Mississippi
_________________
Huck just won Kansas with about a 40% margin between his votes and McCains. Total blowout.
Do you know how the individual states work with regard to ‘winner take all’ delegates or percentages?
Also, which remining states are closed primaries?
I’m trying to formulate a favorable state-by-state scenario.
I don't think Huckabee is going to get the nomination even if he does very well from here on out. What's important is that his delegates are probably much more likely than John McCain's to support somebody reasonable.
Barf..........
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