Posted on 02/08/2008 7:30:45 PM PST by Kurt Evans
Many news organizations report delegate projections based on nonbinding votes for candidate preference. The New York Times counts only delegates that have been officially selected and are bound by their preferences (link in post #2):
695 - Senator McCain
159 - Governor Huckabee
136 - Governor Romney
5 - Congressman Paul
0 - Ambassador Keyes
There'll be 2,380 total delegates selected for the national convention, and a candidate will need the votes of 1,191 of them to win the nomination. So far 995 delegates have been officially selected and are bound by their preferences. Senator McCain would still need the votes of 496 more delegates, or 36 percent of the remaining 1,385, to guarantee nomination on the first ballot. Note that holding Senator McCain to 36 percent in the delegate count doesn't require holding him to 36 percent at the polls, since many states weight their allocation of delegates disproportionately in favor of the winner.
As many of you may know, I supported Congressman Hunter until late October, and I've been supporting Governor Huckabee since then. Obviously my first choice is for Governor Huckabee to win the nomination on the first ballot and select Congressman Hunter as his running mate. He'll need 1,032 of the remaining 1,385 delegates, or 75 percent, to guarantee a first-ballot victory. That sounds like a tall order, but consider that Senator McCain has acquired 70 percent of the bound delegates so far. If public opinion shifts against him, a reversal is clearly possible.
My second choice would be for Governor Huckabee to enter the convention with a plurality of support. Mathematically--with major help from Congressman Paul and/or Ambassador Keyes--that would be possible with 537 of the remaining 1,385 delegates, or about 39 percent. Realistically it would probably require at least 60 to 70 percent.
My third choice would be a brokered convention and the resulting opportunity for conservative delegates to filibuster for a more conservative nominee than Senator McCain, such as Congressman Hunter. As explained above, that would require holding Senator McCain to less than 36 percent of the remaining delegates. That is, 64 percent of them would have to support other candidates or abstain from the convention's first vote.
My fourth choice would be simply to prevent McCain delegates from running roughshod over the party's pro-family conservative heritage and recreating the national platform in their own liberal image. The solution to that potential problem is recognizing that even if you've been brain-Rushed into personally despising Governor Huckabee, his delegates are generally much, much more conservative than Senator McCain's. The greater the number of conservative Huckabee delegates who make it to the convention, the better off the party and the nation will be in the long run.
In closing, anyone who says we have to immediately unite behind Senator McCain is lying. This campaign is over a year old, and the general election is nine months away. A few more weeks of ideological debate will do much more good than harm. And anyone who says in the present tense that Senator McCain "is the nominee"--Rush Limbaugh for example--is lying. Real conservatives aren't quitters.
New York Times primary results:
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/delegates/index.html
Can you correct my misspelling of “delegate” in the headline?
Thank you.
You’re welcome.
Huckabee is gone. McCain will blow him away in every state but Mississippi and I’m thankful for that. I can tolerate McCain but Huckabee there is just no way.
Disgusting and appalling are words that come to mind.
I had a very high degree of respect for Congressman Hunter until he pulled that stunt.
Keyes has been my top choice since the day he announced, and I wholeheartedly agree with you that the nomination is is too important a matter to give up without finishing the race. Thanks for posting this, and best wishes in the coming contests.
It’s over!
I called it after Florida, but that was subject to a miracle on February 5th. Now even miracles won’t help.
It is over.
Given the way the media has skewed public opinion on Cheney, I see no possible way he could win. The independent voters will just believe what they hear.
We’ll see if Huckabee wins Lousiana tomorrow.
I was a Fred guy. My fall back guy was Romney. If Romney were still in the race, perhaps he and Huckabee could have gotten enough delegates to prevent McCain from locking up the nomination.
Texas is winner take all with 140 delegates, the last of the big states out there. If Romney were still in, it might have been possible to deny McCain those 140 delegates. Huckabee may take Mississippi. Louisiana is Saturday. Virginia is later as well as some others that McCain wouldn’t necessarily have had a lock on, but only if Romney had stayed in.
With Romney in - mathematically possible. Romney out - It’s over.
Perhaps Romney realized that even if he and Huckabee together could have prevented McCain from locking up the nomination, in the end Huckabee would have pulled a West Virginia on Romney and given McCain his delegates in a deal for a position in a McCain administration. With Romney out, Huckabee is grasping at straws now.
For Huckafraud to win, he’s going to have to stop kissing McAmnesty on the forehead and get down off of Grampa’s lap and actually campaign as if he has a purpose other than splitting the conservative vote.
Once the word gets out that Huckster is just as liberal as McCain, he's going to lose support in the remaining states. Ron Paul is the true conservative remaining.
These Huckster supporters are really fooling themselves. Fortunately, his political career is toast after this election. I don't see him being viable except as a position in the RNC.
I feel your pain, but I’m convinced Giuliani and Governor Romney are both even more dangerous than Senator McCain. They divide the conservative coalition by convincing many conservatives that they’re conservative themselves. Senator McCain unites the conservative coalition by failing to convince any of us.
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