Posted on 02/08/2008 7:30:45 PM PST by Kurt Evans
Many news organizations report delegate projections based on nonbinding votes for candidate preference. The New York Times counts only delegates that have been officially selected and are bound by their preferences (link in post #2):
695 - Senator McCain
159 - Governor Huckabee
136 - Governor Romney
5 - Congressman Paul
0 - Ambassador Keyes
There'll be 2,380 total delegates selected for the national convention, and a candidate will need the votes of 1,191 of them to win the nomination. So far 995 delegates have been officially selected and are bound by their preferences. Senator McCain would still need the votes of 496 more delegates, or 36 percent of the remaining 1,385, to guarantee nomination on the first ballot. Note that holding Senator McCain to 36 percent in the delegate count doesn't require holding him to 36 percent at the polls, since many states weight their allocation of delegates disproportionately in favor of the winner.
As many of you may know, I supported Congressman Hunter until late October, and I've been supporting Governor Huckabee since then. Obviously my first choice is for Governor Huckabee to win the nomination on the first ballot and select Congressman Hunter as his running mate. He'll need 1,032 of the remaining 1,385 delegates, or 75 percent, to guarantee a first-ballot victory. That sounds like a tall order, but consider that Senator McCain has acquired 70 percent of the bound delegates so far. If public opinion shifts against him, a reversal is clearly possible.
My second choice would be for Governor Huckabee to enter the convention with a plurality of support. Mathematically--with major help from Congressman Paul and/or Ambassador Keyes--that would be possible with 537 of the remaining 1,385 delegates, or about 39 percent. Realistically it would probably require at least 60 to 70 percent.
My third choice would be a brokered convention and the resulting opportunity for conservative delegates to filibuster for a more conservative nominee than Senator McCain, such as Congressman Hunter. As explained above, that would require holding Senator McCain to less than 36 percent of the remaining delegates. That is, 64 percent of them would have to support other candidates or abstain from the convention's first vote.
My fourth choice would be simply to prevent McCain delegates from running roughshod over the party's pro-family conservative heritage and recreating the national platform in their own liberal image. The solution to that potential problem is recognizing that even if you've been brain-Rushed into personally despising Governor Huckabee, his delegates are generally much, much more conservative than Senator McCain's. The greater the number of conservative Huckabee delegates who make it to the convention, the better off the party and the nation will be in the long run.
In closing, anyone who says we have to immediately unite behind Senator McCain is lying. This campaign is over a year old, and the general election is nine months away. A few more weeks of ideological debate will do much more good than harm. And anyone who says in the present tense that Senator McCain "is the nominee"--Rush Limbaugh for example--is lying. Real conservatives aren't quitters.
Good post, Kurt.
“...consider that Senator McCain has acquired 70 percent of the bound delegates so far. If public opinion shifts against him, a reversal is clearly possible.”
It depends on how delegates are apportioned in the remaining primaries as well as what happens to uncommitted delegates. For example, Michigan’s Romney delegates are now considered uncommitted. Of the primaries that remain, how many are Winner Take All, and of those, how many can Huckabee reasonably be expected to win?
For example, I believe Texas is a Winner Take All so long as one candidate wins a majority (>50% of the popular vote). That’s a huge chunk of delegates, and with only two candidates left, one of them is very likely to receive more than 50%.
Here’s some good info on how delegates are currently allocated:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/R-Alloc.phtml
The only other part of your post I have difficulty with:
“In closing, anyone who says we have to immediately unite behind Senator McCain is lying.”
That’s not really so much a lie as an opinion.
Personally, I think momentum has a lot to do with this, and McCain clearly has it. Although I would like Huckabee to concede, I respect his decision to stay in. He promised to do so until a clear winner was selected, so he’s standing on his promise. Again, I respect that. I just don’t think he has a realistic chance, but he’s NOT harming the party by staying in.
I am amused about one aspect of the race so far. Remember a couple days ago when the pundits were saying Huckabee was a spoiler who was only in it to defeat Romney? Well, Romney’s gone and Huck’s still in. What does that say about the credibility of certain folks?
“...but I’m convinced Giuliani and Governor Romney are both even more dangerous than...McCain. They divide the conservative coalition by convincing many conservatives that they’re conservative.... Senator McCain unites the conservative coalition by failing to convince any of us.”
I agree with you completely that Giuliani is not a conservative. I also agree that McCain and Romney are either not 100% pure or have, at times, expressed non-conservative positions. Huckabee has some issues as well. Yes, I am a southern Baptist.
You seem to be hoping that with Romney now out of the race, that the conservatives will flock to Huckabee in droves and pull out a victory for conservatism. We’ll see. I don’t know yet how I will vote in Texas in March. I don’t have many choices left.
Kurt Evans: “Senator McCain unites the conservative coalition by failing to convince any of us.”
Interesting. Maybe McCain’s a better uniter than any of us thought. He certainly seems to have unified a lot of conservatives here...in anger.
“”And anyone who says in the present tense that Senator McCain “is the nominee”—Rush Limbaugh for example—is lying. Real conservatives aren’t quitters.””
How about:
Real conservatives aren’t liars?
“I had a very high degree of respect for Congressman Hunter until he pulled that stunt.”
Duncan is my congressman, it didn’t surprise me much, after all who is the last man standing against McCain? Hunter’s guy.
“Have you seen any big splash in the news the last few days that suddenly makes you think the vast majority of voters still to cast ballots will rebel against McCain’s coronation as the GOP nomination?”
No it is over, but at least we still get to play primary for a while longer.
I like having a period to blow off a little steam before the trauma truly sets in.
Excellent Post!!!
I’m behind your way of thinking 110%~~~~~~~
Polly
Bump
second bump to the top
Thank you for this analysis.
“”The only other part of your post I have difficulty with:
“In closing, anyone who says we have to immediately unite behind Senator McCain is lying.”
That’s not really so much a lie as an opinion.””
It seems to me to be tied in to the final comment “”And anyone who says in the present tense that Senator McCain “is the nominee”—Rush Limbaugh for example—is lying.””
They are not making an accurate statement, at the very least.
MCCAIN IS THE FRONT RUNNER, NOT THE WINNER!!!!!!
HE IS NOT THE NOMINEE, HE ONLY HAS ABOUT HALF THE DELEGATES NEEDED TO BE THE NOMINEE!
He might call himself the presumptive nominee, but, at the moment, he is not ‘the nominee’.
And really, telling us that we have to unite behind him is more of an order that just an opinion, because they’re telling US what to do, or how to behave.
Until now, Romney and Huckabee have been splitting the conservative vote, and the anti-McCain vote, and I’m sure either one would have done better with the other one out, but now that one is out, it only makes sense to wait at least a little bit longer and see what happens.
Surely the most counterproductive thing would be for both to drop out at once, when McCain didn’t even get 50% in his home state.
If Huckabee is not the nominee or at least the VP, I will (gulp) vote third party for Ron Paul just to send a message to the party.
“Ron Paul has 42 delegates.”
I explained this above:
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/delegates/index.html
“Once the word gets out that Huckster is just as liberal as McCain, he’s going to lose support in the remaining states.”
Governor Romney’s well-financed operatives got that “word” out some time ago.
“Ron Paul is the true conservative remaining.”
Governor Huckabee, Ambassador Keyes and Congressman Paul are all conservatives.
“Have you seen any big splash in the news the last few days that suddenly makes you think the vast majority of voters still to cast ballots will rebel against McCain’s coronation as the GOP nomination?”
Yes, but I’m admittedly reading South Dakota’s relatively moderate/conservative newspapers.
Huckabee on the ticket in either position is the only thing that might make me consider not voting for the GOP ticket. I detest the guy.
Same here. I hope he goes back to Hope and lets us try and forget the very thought of him.
“Of the primaries that remain, how many are Winner Take All, and of those, how many can Huckabee reasonably be expected to win?”
If public opinion shifts against Senator McCain, I’m not sure there are any remaining states that won’t be in play.
“That’s not really so much a lie as an opinion.”
Wrong opinions presented as facts are lies ... in my opinion.
:-)
“Remember a couple days ago when the pundits were saying Huckabee was a spoiler who was only in it to defeat Romney? Well, Romney’s gone and Huck’s still in. What does that say about the credibility of certain folks?”
When Governor Romney said he was staying in the race, it honestly made me think he was probably getting out of it.
The New York Times is the only media organization who is showing their queen Hillary Clinton with so much lead over Obama (912-741). To do so the New York Times chose not to count some states won by Obama on Super Tuesday claiming that the delegates are not counted yet. These states are caucus and Obama won them by a large margin.
“You seem to be hoping that with Romney now out of the race, that the conservatives will flock to Huckabee in droves and pull out a victory for conservatism.”
I’m hoping moderates will flock to Governor Huckabee too, leaving Senator McCain with nothing but liberals.
“How about: Real conservatives aren’t liars?”
That works too.
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