Good post, Kurt.
“...consider that Senator McCain has acquired 70 percent of the bound delegates so far. If public opinion shifts against him, a reversal is clearly possible.”
It depends on how delegates are apportioned in the remaining primaries as well as what happens to uncommitted delegates. For example, Michigan’s Romney delegates are now considered uncommitted. Of the primaries that remain, how many are Winner Take All, and of those, how many can Huckabee reasonably be expected to win?
For example, I believe Texas is a Winner Take All so long as one candidate wins a majority (>50% of the popular vote). That’s a huge chunk of delegates, and with only two candidates left, one of them is very likely to receive more than 50%.
Here’s some good info on how delegates are currently allocated:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/R-Alloc.phtml
The only other part of your post I have difficulty with:
“In closing, anyone who says we have to immediately unite behind Senator McCain is lying.”
That’s not really so much a lie as an opinion.
Personally, I think momentum has a lot to do with this, and McCain clearly has it. Although I would like Huckabee to concede, I respect his decision to stay in. He promised to do so until a clear winner was selected, so he’s standing on his promise. Again, I respect that. I just don’t think he has a realistic chance, but he’s NOT harming the party by staying in.
I am amused about one aspect of the race so far. Remember a couple days ago when the pundits were saying Huckabee was a spoiler who was only in it to defeat Romney? Well, Romney’s gone and Huck’s still in. What does that say about the credibility of certain folks?
“”The only other part of your post I have difficulty with:
“In closing, anyone who says we have to immediately unite behind Senator McCain is lying.”
That’s not really so much a lie as an opinion.””
It seems to me to be tied in to the final comment “”And anyone who says in the present tense that Senator McCain “is the nominee”—Rush Limbaugh for example—is lying.””
They are not making an accurate statement, at the very least.
MCCAIN IS THE FRONT RUNNER, NOT THE WINNER!!!!!!
HE IS NOT THE NOMINEE, HE ONLY HAS ABOUT HALF THE DELEGATES NEEDED TO BE THE NOMINEE!
He might call himself the presumptive nominee, but, at the moment, he is not ‘the nominee’.
And really, telling us that we have to unite behind him is more of an order that just an opinion, because they’re telling US what to do, or how to behave.
Until now, Romney and Huckabee have been splitting the conservative vote, and the anti-McCain vote, and I’m sure either one would have done better with the other one out, but now that one is out, it only makes sense to wait at least a little bit longer and see what happens.
Surely the most counterproductive thing would be for both to drop out at once, when McCain didn’t even get 50% in his home state.
“Of the primaries that remain, how many are Winner Take All, and of those, how many can Huckabee reasonably be expected to win?”
If public opinion shifts against Senator McCain, I’m not sure there are any remaining states that won’t be in play.
“That’s not really so much a lie as an opinion.”
Wrong opinions presented as facts are lies ... in my opinion.
:-)
“Remember a couple days ago when the pundits were saying Huckabee was a spoiler who was only in it to defeat Romney? Well, Romney’s gone and Huck’s still in. What does that say about the credibility of certain folks?”
When Governor Romney said he was staying in the race, it honestly made me think he was probably getting out of it.