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The Gun Vote and 2014: Will There Be an Electoral Price?
The New York Times' Five Thirty Eight ^ | April 23, 2013 | Nate Silver

Posted on 04/23/2013 7:50:18 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Did the senators who voted against a proposal last week to expand background checks on gun buyers take an electoral risk?

At first glance, it would seem that they did. Background checks are broadly popular with the public. Overwhelming majorities of 80 to 90 percent of the public say they favor background checks when guns are purchased at gun shows, at gun shops or online. Support for background checks drops when guns are bought through informal channels, or gifts from family members — but the amendment that the Senate voted upon last week, sponsored by the Joe Manchin III, Democrat of West Virginia, and Pat Toomey, Republican of Pennsylvania, would have exempted most of these cases.

And yet, the Senate did not behave as though this was a piece of legislation favored by 80 percent or more of the public. The analysis that we posted last week suggested that, if anything, senators who are up for re-election in 2014 were less likely to vote for the bill.

It’s worth considering in more detail how the senators’ re-election status might have affected their votes. Doing so yields a more subtle conclusion than we’d reached initially. Senators who are up for re-election in 2014 were more sensitive to attitudes toward gun-ownership in their states. However, this influenced behavior in both directions. Senators running for re-election were especially likely to vote for Mr. Manchin’s amendment if they represented states with low rates of gun ownership, but especially unlikely to do so if they came from states where gun ownership is common.....

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Issues; Polls; U.S. Congress; U.S. Senate
KEYWORDS: 2014; 2014election; 2016election; banglist; congress; election2014; election2016; guncontrol; polls; secondamendment

1 posted on 04/23/2013 7:50:18 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It sounds to me like most Senators aren’t believing “the polls” these days.


2 posted on 04/23/2013 7:56:37 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (I got expelled from the "fundamental transformation" indoctrination center.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Just today one of our local moderate to liberal Michigan columnists was slamming the 90% lie and attacks on gun owners because he himself owns several (including an “assault rifle” with a high capacity magazine just because it looks cool)


3 posted on 04/23/2013 7:56:56 PM PDT by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The elections are a fraud. Progressives will get what they want from now on.


4 posted on 04/23/2013 8:00:39 PM PDT by Boiling point (Socialism; Ideas so good they have to be mandatory.)
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To: FReepers

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5 posted on 04/23/2013 8:04:05 PM PDT by DJ MacWoW (My faith and politics cannot be separated)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I don't think that vote was a big deal for the general public after the terror attack in Boston. In fact, I think the general public didn't even know what the individual amendments were about. I think their perception was votes were taken to protect people having guns which they might be for or against. Then, the terror attack happened, and now even more people want guns.

I think that search the whole country watched, caused people to decide in the favor of having a gun rather than hiding in their house and hoping the bad guy didn't break in. A gun is better than a hope.

6 posted on 04/23/2013 8:07:26 PM PDT by Marcella (Prepping can save your life today. Going Galt is freedom.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Nate Silver + NY Slimes = Communist claptrap.


7 posted on 04/23/2013 8:09:39 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Leno Was Right,They *Are* Undocumented Democrats!)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

The Slimes. Thanks 2ndDivisionVet.


8 posted on 04/23/2013 8:16:34 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Romney would have been worse, if you're a dumb ass.)
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To: Marcella

I think a lot of things are closing in on the democrats and RINOs. Bob Beckel rightfully slamming our idiotic immigration policies and now the African American Leadership Council is calling on the black caucus to oppose the immigration bill.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3011571/posts

Nothing scares Washington more than the left and right finding common ground.


9 posted on 04/23/2013 8:18:17 PM PDT by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Nate silver is a Obama front man and a dem party operative .
Nothing more.
Bold faced liar to boot


10 posted on 04/23/2013 8:19:13 PM PDT by ncalburt (Amnesty media out in full force)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

There had better be.


11 posted on 04/23/2013 8:20:49 PM PDT by Persevero (Homeschooling for Excellence since 1992)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

this is google search manipulation.

call a loss a victory.

The real issue is going to be the democrats who voted for this and can this issue be nationalized to eliminate ALL democrats.


12 posted on 04/23/2013 8:48:37 PM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: FlingWingFlyer

Liberals say it will cause people to vote Democrats. Conservatives say this will cause people to vote Republican. I am not giving any prediction. I was made a complete fool of myself in 2012 and cocky liberals remind me of that all the time. I hope we get the Senate and keep the House in 2014 for no other reason than to cause Obama to get nothing passed! Everything passed in the House and Senate will be Vetoed. It already looks like Obama is a lame duck so hopefully he will continue to be so.


13 posted on 04/23/2013 9:06:45 PM PDT by napscoordinator (Santorum-Bachmann 2016 for the future of the Country!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The Senators who voted against the gun bill have a far better sense of which way the wind is blowing than the NY Times does.


14 posted on 04/23/2013 9:21:48 PM PDT by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
There has already been a price paid -- by dems.

2014 retirements: Dems heading for the hills

15 posted on 04/23/2013 9:25:03 PM PDT by Waryone (Trust the Lord not your own understanding. Acknowledge Him. He will direct your path.)
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To: Waryone

See post #8 on the thread I linked above.


16 posted on 04/23/2013 9:26:29 PM PDT by Waryone (Trust the Lord not your own understanding. Acknowledge Him. He will direct your path.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

80%???? What happened to the 90% touted by Obama????????????


17 posted on 04/23/2013 10:49:43 PM PDT by Forty-Niner (A Strong Man Armed who guards his home, lives in peace.)
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